AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#76Away
Old Dominion
0-0 · AVR 47.5
34p
#131Home
Georgia State
0-0 · AVR 26.7
25p
ODU 74%26% GAST
Spread
ODU -9.3
Total
59
Moneyline
ODU-283GAST+283
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ODU advantageevenGAST advantage →
ODU throw
ODU +35
ODU run
ODU +54
GAST throw
ODU +45
GAST run
ODU +32

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
over the middle
Grant Hollier
vs
Mario Easterly
TE · GAST
FS · ODU
61.3
76.5
ODU +15
when GAST throws
Jaylin Marshall
vs
Zion Frink
X · GAST
CB1 · ODU
44.1
89.5
ODU +45
off the edge· hunting Brown
Deylin Hasert
vs
Javen Gibson
LT · GAST
EDGE · ODU
54.8
73.0
ODU +18
when GAST runs
Dennis Murray Jr.
vs
Jackson Forrest
RB · GAST
MLB · ODU
47.2
79.2
ODU +32
when ODU runs
Devin Roche
vs
Jaden Kelly
RB · ODU
MLB · GAST
64.7
39.6
ODU +25
when ODU throws
TJ Johnson
vs
Deuce Walker
X · ODU
CB1 · GAST
53.6
42.6
ODU +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Old Dominion
CBZion Frink
89.514/1427
CBBrandon Crutchfield
88.021/1427
SLucas Struck
79.793/1427
LBJackson Forrest
79.264/878
RBDevin Roche
64.775/514
WRTJ Johnson
53.6203/777
Georgia State
TEGrant Hollier
61.340/287
QBCameran Brown
58.277/308
RBDennis Murray Jr.
47.2376/514
WRJaylin Marshall
44.1490/777
WRDerrick Avery Jr.
42.9530/777
SDeuce Walker
42.6961/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Old Dominion
opponent
Georgia State
home-2.5
James Madison#55
-19.3away
home+3.2
Marshall#83
-13.6away
home+10.0
Georgia Southern#117
-1.8home
away+3.0
App State#103
-8.7away
away+9.8
Coastal Carolina#126
+3.0home

Projected margin

80% between -27 and 8
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKODU +9.395% interval: -33.2 to 14.680% interval: -26.7 to 8.1-27+8ODU wins 74%GAST wins 26%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ODU 32–25 GASTGAST 21–56 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGAST 25–53 ODU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGAST 28–49 ODU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGAST 32–46 ODU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGAST 35–42 ODU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGAST 39–39 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGAST 42–35 ODU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGAST 46–32 ODU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGAST 49–28 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGAST 18–53 ODU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGAST 21–49 ODU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGAST 25–46 ODU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGAST 28–42 ODU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGAST 32–39 ODU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGAST 35–35 ODU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGAST 39–32 ODU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGAST 42–28 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGAST 46–25 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGAST 14–49 ODU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGAST 18–46 ODU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGAST 21–42 ODU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGAST 25–39 ODU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGAST 28–35 ODU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGAST 32–32 ODU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGAST 35–28 ODU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGAST 39–25 ODU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGAST 42–21 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 11–46 ODU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGAST 14–42 ODU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGAST 18–39 ODU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGAST 21–35 ODU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesGAST 25–32 ODU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGAST 28–28 ODU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGAST 32–25 ODU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGAST 35–21 ODU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGAST 39–18 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 7–42 ODU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGAST 11–39 ODU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGAST 14–35 ODU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGAST 18–32 ODU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGAST 21–28 ODU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGAST 25–25 ODU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGAST 28–21 ODU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGAST 32–18 ODU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGAST 35–14 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 4–39 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGAST 7–35 ODU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGAST 11–32 ODU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGAST 14–28 ODU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGAST 18–25 ODU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGAST 21–21 ODU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGAST 25–18 ODU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGAST 28–14 ODU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGAST 32–11 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGAST 0–35 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGAST 4–32 ODU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGAST 7–28 ODU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGAST 11–25 ODU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGAST 14–21 ODU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGAST 18–18 ODU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGAST 21–14 ODU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGAST 25–11 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGAST 28–7 ODU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalODU +35ODU +21ODU +7GAST +7GAST +21margin →