AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#131Away
Georgia State
0-0 · AVR 26.7
24p
#83Home
Marshall
0-0 · AVR 45.8
37p
GAST 18%82% MRSH
Spread
MRSH -13.6
Total
61
Moneyline
GAST+468MRSH-468
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← GAST advantageevenMRSH advantage →
GAST throw
MRSH +12
GAST run
MRSH +20
MRSH throw
MRSH protection #97
MRSH +58
MRSH run
MRSH +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Brown
Deylin Hasert
vs
Braydin Ward
LT · GAST
EDGE · MRSH
54.8
89.6
MRSH +35
when GAST runs
Dennis Murray Jr.
vs
Javae Gilmore
RB · GAST
MLB · MRSH
47.2
81.8
MRSH +35
over the middle
Grant Hollier
vs
Daytione Smith
TE · GAST
FS · MRSH
61.3
62.5
dead even
when GAST throws
Jaylin Marshall
vs
Boogie Trotter
X · GAST
CB1 · MRSH
44.1
79.3
MRSH +35
when MRSH throws
De'Andre Tamarez
vs
Deuce Walker
X · MRSH
CB1 · GAST
67.4
42.6
MRSH +25
when MRSH runs
Jo'Shon Barbie
vs
Jaden Kelly
RB · MRSH
MLB · GAST
51.6
39.6
MRSH +12

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia State
TEGrant Hollier
61.340/287
QBCameran Brown
58.277/308
RBDennis Murray Jr.
47.2376/514
WRJaylin Marshall
44.1490/777
WRDerrick Avery Jr.
42.9530/777
SDeuce Walker
42.6961/1427
Marshall
LBJavae Gilmore
81.843/878
CBBoogie Trotter
79.397/1427
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson
76.328/308
DBCharles McCartherens
69.6250/1427
WRDe'Andre Tamarez
67.468/777
CBEddie Pleasant III
67.4293/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Georgia State
opponent
Marshall
away-8.7
App State#103
+7.3home
away-19.3
James Madison#55
-8.2away
home+3.0
Coastal Carolina#126
+14.1home
home-9.3
Old Dominion#76
-3.2away
home-1.8
Georgia Southern#117
+4.3away

Projected margin

80% between -4 and 31
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKMRSH +13.695% interval: -10.3 to 37.580% interval: -3.8 to 31-4+31GAST wins 18%MRSH wins 82%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ MRSH 39–25 GASTMRSH 35–49 GAST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMRSH 39–46 GAST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMRSH 42–42 GAST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesMRSH 46–39 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMRSH 49–35 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMRSH 53–32 GAST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMRSH 56–28 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMRSH 60–25 GAST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesMRSH 63–21 GAST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesMRSH 32–46 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 35–42 GAST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMRSH 39–39 GAST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesMRSH 42–35 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMRSH 46–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMRSH 49–28 GAST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesMRSH 53–25 GAST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMRSH 56–21 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMRSH 60–18 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 28–42 GAST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 32–39 GAST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMRSH 35–35 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMRSH 39–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesMRSH 42–28 GAST neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesMRSH 46–25 GAST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMRSH 49–21 GAST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMRSH 53–18 GAST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMRSH 56–14 GAST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 25–39 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMRSH 28–35 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMRSH 32–32 GAST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMRSH 35–28 GAST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMRSH 39–25 GAST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesMRSH 42–21 GAST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMRSH 46–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMRSH 49–14 GAST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMRSH 53–11 GAST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 21–35 GAST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesMRSH 25–32 GAST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesMRSH 28–28 GAST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMRSH 32–25 GAST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMRSH 35–21 GAST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesMRSH 39–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesMRSH 42–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesMRSH 46–11 GAST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMRSH 49–7 GAST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 18–32 GAST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesMRSH 21–28 GAST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesMRSH 25–25 GAST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesMRSH 28–21 GAST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesMRSH 32–18 GAST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesMRSH 35–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesMRSH 39–11 GAST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesMRSH 42–7 GAST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesMRSH 46–4 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 14–28 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesMRSH 18–25 GAST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesMRSH 21–21 GAST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesMRSH 25–18 GAST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesMRSH 28–14 GAST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesMRSH 32–11 GAST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesMRSH 35–7 GAST neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesMRSH 39–4 GAST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesMRSH 42–0 GAST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalGAST +14PKMRSH +14MRSH +28MRSH +42margin →