AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#99Away
Louisiana
0-0 · AVR 40.0
26p
#94Home
Louisiana Tech
0-0 · AVR 42.0
27p
UL 48%52% LT
Spread
LT -0.6
Total
52
Moneyline
UL+109LT-109
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UL advantageevenLT advantage →
UL throw
LT +35
UL run
LT +38
LT throw
UL pass rush #152
LT +16
LT run
LT +45

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UL throws
Shelton Sampson Jr.
vs
Jaitlin Hampton
X · UL
CB1 · LT
74.3
83.7
LT +9
off the edge· hunting Winfield
J'Marion Gooch
vs
Judd Rouyea
LT · UL
EDGE · LT
40.5
83.2
LT +43
when LT throws
Jalen Mickens
vs
Brent Gordon Jr.
X · LT
CB1 · UL
44.3
71.4
UL +27
when UL runs
Darrell Smith
vs
Jadon Mayfield
RB · UL
MLB · LT
45.8
68.2
LT +22
over the middle
Brock Chappell
vs
Sam Fongang
TE · UL
FS · LT
43.3
68.5
LT +25
over the middle
Eli Finley
vs
Kerry Wilson
TE · LT
FS · UL
46.7
57.5
UL +11

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisiana
WRShelton Sampson Jr.
74.335/777
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
71.4207/1427
SCollin Jacob
60.3473/1427
SMaurion Eleam
59.4497/1427
LBConor McPherson
54.2404/878
QBLunch Winfield
52.2133/308
Louisiana Tech
DBJaitlin Hampton
83.760/1427
DBKam Franklin
75.3152/1427
DBJavari Lockhart
69.1261/1427
DBSam Fongang
68.5274/1427
LBJadon Mayfield
68.2175/878
LBAlonzo Jackson Jr.
61.2265/878

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Louisiana
opponent
Louisiana Tech
home+4.4
Troy#95
-2.5away
home+3.7
South Alabama#100
-3.1away
away-0.5
Southern Miss#93
+2.7home
home+6.2
Arkansas State#104
+4.3home
away+11.3
UL Monroe#132
+9.4away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLT +0.695% interval: -23.3 to 24.580% interval: -16.7 to 18-17+18UL wins 48%LT wins 52%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LT 25–25 ULLT 21–49 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 25–46 UL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLT 28–42 UL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLT 32–39 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLT 35–35 UL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLT 39–32 UL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLT 42–28 UL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLT 46–25 UL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLT 49–21 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 18–46 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 21–42 UL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLT 25–39 UL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLT 28–35 UL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLT 32–32 UL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLT 35–28 UL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLT 39–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLT 42–21 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLT 46–18 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLT 14–42 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLT 18–39 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLT 21–35 UL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLT 25–32 UL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLT 28–28 UL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLT 32–25 UL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLT 35–21 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLT 39–18 UL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLT 42–14 UL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLT 11–39 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLT 14–35 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLT 18–32 UL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLT 21–28 UL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLT 25–25 UL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLT 28–21 UL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLT 32–18 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLT 35–14 UL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLT 39–11 UL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLT 7–35 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 11–32 UL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLT 14–28 UL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLT 18–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLT 21–21 UL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLT 25–18 UL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLT 28–14 UL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLT 32–11 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLT 35–7 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLT 4–32 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 7–28 UL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLT 11–25 UL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLT 14–21 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLT 18–18 UL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLT 21–14 UL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLT 25–11 UL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLT 28–7 UL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLT 32–4 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 0–28 UL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLT 4–25 UL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLT 7–21 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLT 11–18 UL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLT 14–14 UL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLT 18–11 UL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLT 21–7 UL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLT 25–4 UL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLT 28–0 UL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalUL +28UL +14PKLT +14LT +28margin →