AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#99Away
Louisiana
0-0 · AVR 40.0
28p
#93Home
Southern Miss
0-0 · AVR 42.2
28p
UL 48%52% USM
Spread
USM -0.5
Total
56
Moneyline
UL+106USM-106
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UL advantageevenUSM advantage →
UL throw
USM +28
UL run
USM +28
USM throw
UL pass rush #152
even
USM run
USM +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UL throws
Shelton Sampson Jr.
vs
Ishmael Ibraheem
X · UL
CB1 · USM
74.3
95.9
USM +22
when USM throws
Mario Sanders
vs
Brent Gordon Jr.
X · USM
CB1 · UL
52.8
71.4
UL +19
when UL runs
Darrell Smith
vs
Melvin Spriggs
RB · UL
MLB · USM
45.8
70.3
USM +24
off the edge· hunting Winfield
J'Marion Gooch
vs
Jameer Lewis
LT · UL
EDGE · USM
40.5
72.6
USM +32
when USM runs
Robert Briggs
vs
Conor McPherson
RB · USM
MLB · UL
52.7
54.2
dead even
over the middle
Brock Chappell
vs
MaLik Caswell
TE · UL
FS · USM
43.3
60.1
USM +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisiana
WRShelton Sampson Jr.
74.335/777
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
71.4207/1427
SCollin Jacob
60.3473/1427
SMaurion Eleam
59.4497/1427
LBConor McPherson
54.2404/878
QBLunch Winfield
52.2133/308
Southern Miss
CBIshmael Ibraheem
95.94/1427
DBKolby Peavy
72.4184/1427
LBMelvin Spriggs
70.3140/878
DBCannon McClain
64.0385/1427
LBMathis Haygood
60.8270/878
SMaLik Caswell
60.1479/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Louisiana
opponent
Southern Miss
home+4.4
Troy#95
-2.6away
home+6.2
Arkansas State#104
+4.1home
away-0.6
Louisiana Tech#94
-2.7away
home+3.7
South Alabama#100
+1.7home
away+11.3
UL Monroe#132
+9.3away

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSM +0.595% interval: -23.4 to 24.480% interval: -16.9 to 17.9-17+18UL wins 48%USM wins 52%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USM 28–28 ULUSM 25–53 UL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSM 28–49 UL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSM 32–46 UL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSM 35–42 UL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSM 39–39 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSM 42–35 UL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSM 46–32 UL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSM 49–28 UL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSM 53–25 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSM 21–49 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSM 25–46 UL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSM 28–42 UL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSM 32–39 UL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSM 35–35 UL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSM 39–32 UL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSM 42–28 UL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSM 46–25 UL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSM 49–21 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 18–46 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 21–42 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSM 25–39 UL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSM 28–35 UL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSM 32–32 UL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSM 35–28 UL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSM 39–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSM 42–21 UL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSM 46–18 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 14–42 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 18–39 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSM 21–35 UL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSM 25–32 UL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSM 28–28 UL neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUSM 32–25 UL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUSM 35–21 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSM 39–18 UL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSM 42–14 UL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUSM 11–39 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 14–35 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUSM 18–32 UL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSM 21–28 UL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSM 25–25 UL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUSM 28–21 UL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUSM 32–18 UL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUSM 35–14 UL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUSM 39–11 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 7–35 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUSM 11–32 UL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUSM 14–28 UL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUSM 18–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUSM 21–21 UL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUSM 25–18 UL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUSM 28–14 UL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUSM 32–11 UL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUSM 35–7 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUSM 4–32 UL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUSM 7–28 UL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUSM 11–25 UL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUSM 14–21 UL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUSM 18–18 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUSM 21–14 UL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUSM 25–11 UL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUSM 28–7 UL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUSM 32–4 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUL +28UL +14PKUSM +14USM +28margin →