AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Fri Nov 13 · 2:00 AM
#99Away
Louisiana
0-0 · AVR 40.0
33p
#132Home
UL Monroe
0-0 · AVR 26.4
21p
UL 78%22% ULM
Spread
UL -11.3
Total
54
Moneyline
UL-347ULM+347
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UL advantageevenULM advantage →
UL throw
UL +22
UL run
ULM front #130ULM linebackers #19
ULM +26
ULM throw
UL pass rush #152
UL +8
ULM run
ULM +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UL throws
Shelton Sampson Jr.
vs
Jabari Tiller
X · UL
CB1 · ULM
74.3
57.9
UL +16
when UL runs
Darrell Smith
vs
Noah Flemmings
RB · UL
MLB · ULM
45.8
86.1
ULM +40
when ULM throws
JP Coulter
vs
Brent Gordon Jr.
X · ULM
CB1 · UL
48.1
71.4
UL +23
over the middle
Bryce Anderson
vs
Kerry Wilson
TE · ULM
FS · UL
61.0
57.5
ULM +4
over the middle
Brock Chappell
vs
Armoni Rue
TE · UL
FS · ULM
43.3
41.2
dead even
off the edge· hunting Winfield
J'Marion Gooch
vs
James Smith
LT · UL
EDGE · ULM
40.5
42.7
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisiana
WRShelton Sampson Jr.
74.335/777
CBBrent Gordon Jr.
71.4207/1427
SCollin Jacob
60.3473/1427
SMaurion Eleam
59.4497/1427
LBConor McPherson
54.2404/878
QBLunch Winfield
52.2133/308
UL Monroe
LBNoah Flemmings
86.119/878
LBMarcus Ross
74.9106/878
LBJaeden Calender
67.4188/878
TEBryce Anderson
61.046/287
DBJabari Tiller
57.9535/1427
WRJP Coulter
48.1373/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Louisiana
opponent
UL Monroe
home+6.2
Arkansas State#104
-12.7away
home+4.4
Troy#95
-14.4away
home+3.7
South Alabama#100
-15.1away
home+9.1
UAB#121
-9.7away
away-0.6
Louisiana Tech#94
-9.4home
away-0.5
Southern Miss#93
-9.3home

Projected margin

80% between -29 and 6
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUL +11.395% interval: -35.2 to 12.680% interval: -28.7 to 6.1-29+6UL wins 78%ULM wins 22%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UL 35–21 ULMULM 18–60 UL neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesULM 21–56 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesULM 25–53 UL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesULM 28–49 UL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesULM 32–46 UL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesULM 35–42 UL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesULM 39–39 UL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesULM 42–35 UL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesULM 46–32 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 14–56 UL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesULM 18–53 UL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 21–49 UL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesULM 25–46 UL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesULM 28–42 UL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesULM 32–39 UL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesULM 35–35 UL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesULM 39–32 UL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesULM 42–28 UL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesULM 11–53 UL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesULM 14–49 UL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesULM 18–46 UL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesULM 21–42 UL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesULM 25–39 UL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesULM 28–35 UL neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesULM 32–32 UL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesULM 35–28 UL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesULM 39–25 UL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 7–49 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 11–46 UL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesULM 14–42 UL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesULM 18–39 UL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesULM 21–35 UL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesULM 25–32 UL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesULM 28–28 UL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesULM 32–25 UL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesULM 35–21 UL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesULM 4–46 UL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 7–42 UL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesULM 11–39 UL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesULM 14–35 UL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesULM 18–32 UL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesULM 21–28 UL neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesULM 25–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesULM 28–21 UL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesULM 32–18 UL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 0–42 UL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesULM 4–39 UL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesULM 7–35 UL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesULM 11–32 UL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesULM 14–28 UL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesULM 18–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesULM 21–21 UL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesULM 25–18 UL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesULM 28–14 UL neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ULM 0–35 UL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesULM 4–32 UL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesULM 7–28 UL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesULM 11–25 UL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesULM 14–21 UL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesULM 18–18 UL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesULM 21–14 UL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesULM 25–11 UL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalUL +42UL +28UL +14PKULM +14margin →