AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#105Away
Kennesaw State
0-0 · AVR 38.1
30p
#137Home
Sam Houston
0-0 · AVR 21.9
24p
KENN 67%33% SHSU
Spread
KENN -6.4
Total
53
Moneyline
KENN-201SHSU+201
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KENN advantageevenSHSU advantage →
KENN throw
even
KENN run
SHSU +9
SHSU throw
KENN +39
SHSU run
KENN +50

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when SHSU runs
Landan Brown
vs
Baron Hopson
RB · SHSU
MLB · KENN
57.0
76.2
KENN +19
when SHSU throws
Chris Reed
vs
Kody Jones
X · SHSU
CB1 · KENN
43.4
63.2
KENN +20
when KENN runs
Jonathan Mathis
vs
Dean Ford
RB · KENN
MLB · SHSU
47.5
53.9
SHSU +6
when KENN throws
Dylan Gary
vs
Tyler Bailey
X · KENN
CB1 · SHSU
49.2
41.3
KENN +8
over the middle
Max Whisner
vs
Alexander Ford
TE · SHSU
FS · KENN
37.2
50.6
KENN +13
off the edge· hunting Locke
Isaac Sohn
vs
Marcus Patterson
LT · SHSU
EDGE · KENN
11.2
72.4
KENN +61

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kennesaw State
LBBaron Hopson
76.294/878
LBDonovan Westmoreland
70.5137/878
DBKody Jones
63.2400/1427
DBTony Williams Jr.
60.3475/1427
DBIsaac Paul
57.4551/1427
WRDylan Gary
49.2333/777
Sam Houston
RBLandan Brown
57.0141/514
LBDean Ford
53.9406/878
LBEli Wallace
50.0482/878
WRChris Reed
43.4511/777
QBLandyn Locke
42.0257/308
STyler Bailey
41.3998/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kennesaw State
opponent
Sam Houston
home-3.9
Jacksonville State#89
-17.8away
home-2.5
Liberty#106
-16.4away
home+0.7
Florida International#109
-13.2away
away+2.0
Missouri State#125
-6.9away
away+0.1
Middle Tennessee#124
-3.8home
away-12.5
Western Kentucky#75
-16.4home

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 11
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKENN +6.495% interval: -30.3 to 17.580% interval: -23.8 to 11-24+11KENN wins 67%SHSU wins 33%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KENN 32–25 SHSUSHSU 21–56 KENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSHSU 25–53 KENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSHSU 28–49 KENN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSHSU 32–46 KENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSHSU 35–42 KENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSHSU 39–39 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSHSU 42–35 KENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSHSU 46–32 KENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSHSU 49–28 KENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSHSU 18–53 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSHSU 21–49 KENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSHSU 25–46 KENN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSHSU 28–42 KENN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSHSU 32–39 KENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSHSU 35–35 KENN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSHSU 39–32 KENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSHSU 42–28 KENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSHSU 46–25 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSHSU 14–49 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 18–46 KENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSHSU 21–42 KENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSHSU 25–39 KENN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSHSU 28–35 KENN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSHSU 32–32 KENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSHSU 35–28 KENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSHSU 39–25 KENN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSHSU 42–21 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 11–46 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 14–42 KENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSHSU 18–39 KENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSHSU 21–35 KENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSHSU 25–32 KENN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesSHSU 28–28 KENN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSHSU 32–25 KENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSHSU 35–21 KENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSHSU 39–18 KENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSHSU 7–42 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 11–39 KENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSHSU 14–35 KENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSHSU 18–32 KENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSHSU 21–28 KENN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSHSU 25–25 KENN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSHSU 28–21 KENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSHSU 32–18 KENN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSHSU 35–14 KENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSHSU 4–39 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSHSU 7–35 KENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSHSU 11–32 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSHSU 14–28 KENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSHSU 18–25 KENN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSHSU 21–21 KENN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSHSU 25–18 KENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSHSU 28–14 KENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSHSU 32–11 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSHSU 0–35 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSHSU 4–32 KENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSHSU 7–28 KENN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSHSU 11–25 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSHSU 14–21 KENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSHSU 18–18 KENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSHSU 21–14 KENN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSHSU 25–11 KENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSHSU 28–7 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalKENN +35KENN +21KENN +7SHSU +7SHSU +21margin →