AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#109Away
Florida International
0-0 · AVR 36.2
27p
#102Home
Delaware
0-0 · AVR 39.0
29p
FIU 44%56% DEL
Spread
DEL -2.0
Total
56
Moneyline
FIU+127DEL-127
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FIU advantageevenDEL advantage →
FIU throw
FIU protection #99
FIU +7
FIU run
DEL +33
DEL throw
DEL QB #6DEL protection #64
DEL +18
DEL run
DEL +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when DEL throws
Sean Wilson
vs
Shamir Sterlin
X · DEL
CB1 · FIU
68.2
81.3
FIU +13
when FIU runs
Anthony Carrie
vs
Gavin Moul
RB · FIU
MLB · DEL
57.2
80.0
DEL +23
when DEL runs
Jo Silver
vs
Brayshawn Littlejohn
RB · DEL
MLB · FIU
66.9
70.1
FIU +3
off the edge· hunting Minicucci
Steven Demboski
vs
Dante Anderson
LT · DEL
EDGE · FIU
50.6
74.1
FIU +23
when FIU throws
Maguire Anderson
vs
KT Seay
X · FIU
CB1 · DEL
51.3
64.1
DEL +13
off the edge· hunting Kohl
Antonio Tripp Jr.
vs
Trace Scott III
LT · FIU
EDGE · DEL
38.2
72.8
DEL +35

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida International
DBShamir Sterlin
81.379/1427
DBJai-Ayviauynn Celestine
70.2233/1427
LBBrayshawn Littlejohn
70.1144/878
QBJJ Kohl
68.047/308
DBLawrence Johnson
61.5445/1427
RBAnthony Carrie
57.2136/514
Delaware
QBNick Minicucci
88.66/308
LBGavin Moul
80.055/878
LBBlake Matthews
68.7165/878
WRSean Wilson
68.264/777
RBJo Silver
66.969/514
SKT Seay
64.1383/1427

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida International
opponent
Delaware
home+6.9
Middle Tennessee#124
+1.4away
home+10.4
New Mexico State#130
+5.0away
away-7.2
Jacksonville State#89
-2.6home
away-5.7
Liberty#106
-1.2home
home+8.8
Missouri State#125
+8.3home
away-0.7
Kennesaw State#105
-1.2away

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKDEL +2.095% interval: -21.9 to 2680% interval: -15.3 to 19.4-15+19FIU wins 44%DEL wins 56%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ DEL 28–28 FIUDEL 25–53 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDEL 28–49 FIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 32–46 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDEL 35–42 FIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDEL 39–39 FIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDEL 42–35 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDEL 46–32 FIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDEL 49–28 FIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDEL 53–25 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 21–49 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDEL 25–46 FIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDEL 28–42 FIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDEL 32–39 FIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDEL 35–35 FIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDEL 39–32 FIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDEL 42–28 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDEL 46–25 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDEL 49–21 FIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 18–46 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 21–42 FIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDEL 25–39 FIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesDEL 28–35 FIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesDEL 32–32 FIU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDEL 35–28 FIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesDEL 39–25 FIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDEL 42–21 FIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDEL 46–18 FIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDEL 14–42 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 18–39 FIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDEL 21–35 FIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDEL 25–32 FIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDEL 28–28 FIU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesDEL 32–25 FIU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDEL 35–21 FIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesDEL 39–18 FIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDEL 42–14 FIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDEL 11–39 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesDEL 14–35 FIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesDEL 18–32 FIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDEL 21–28 FIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDEL 25–25 FIU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesDEL 28–21 FIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesDEL 32–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDEL 35–14 FIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesDEL 39–11 FIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesDEL 7–35 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDEL 11–32 FIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesDEL 14–28 FIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesDEL 18–25 FIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesDEL 21–21 FIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesDEL 25–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesDEL 28–14 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesDEL 32–11 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDEL 35–7 FIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 4–32 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesDEL 7–28 FIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesDEL 11–25 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesDEL 14–21 FIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesDEL 18–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesDEL 21–14 FIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesDEL 25–11 FIU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesDEL 28–7 FIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesDEL 32–4 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalFIU +28FIU +14PKDEL +14DEL +28margin →