AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#102Away
Delaware
0-0 · AVR 39.0
26p
#105Home
Kennesaw State
0-0 · AVR 38.1
27p
DEL 47%53% KENN
Spread
KENN -1.2
Total
54
Moneyline
DEL+113KENN-113
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← DEL advantageevenKENN advantage →
DEL throw
DEL QB #6DEL protection #64
DEL +27
DEL run
KENN +10
KENN throw
DEL +28
KENN run
DEL +49

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when DEL runs
Jo Silver
vs
Baron Hopson
RB · DEL
MLB · KENN
66.9
76.2
KENN +9
when DEL throws
Sean Wilson
vs
Kody Jones
X · DEL
CB1 · KENN
68.2
63.2
DEL +5
when KENN runs
Jonathan Mathis
vs
Gavin Moul
RB · KENN
MLB · DEL
47.5
80.0
DEL +32
off the edge· hunting Minicucci
Steven Demboski
vs
Marcus Patterson
LT · DEL
EDGE · KENN
50.6
72.4
KENN +22
when KENN throws
Dylan Gary
vs
KT Seay
X · KENN
CB1 · DEL
49.2
64.1
DEL +15
over the middle
Elijah Sessoms
vs
Alexander Ford
TE · DEL
FS · KENN
53.5
50.6
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Delaware
QBNick Minicucci
88.66/308
LBGavin Moul
80.055/878
LBBlake Matthews
68.7165/878
WRSean Wilson
68.264/777
RBJo Silver
66.969/514
SKT Seay
64.1383/1427
Kennesaw State
LBBaron Hopson
76.294/878
LBDonovan Westmoreland
70.5137/878
DBKody Jones
63.2400/1427
DBTony Williams Jr.
60.3475/1427
DBIsaac Paul
57.4551/1427
WRDylan Gary
49.2333/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Delaware
opponent
Kennesaw State
home+8.3
Missouri State#125
+2.0away
away-11.2
Western Kentucky#75
-12.5away
home-1.2
Liberty#106
-2.5home
home+2.0
Florida International#109
+0.7home
away+1.4
Middle Tennessee#124
+0.1away
home-2.6
Jacksonville State#89
-3.9home

Projected margin

80% between -16 and 19
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKENN +1.295% interval: -22.7 to 25.180% interval: -16.2 to 18.6-16+19DEL wins 47%KENN wins 53%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KENN 28–28 DELKENN 25–53 DEL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENN 28–49 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 32–46 DEL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENN 35–42 DEL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKENN 39–39 DEL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENN 42–35 DEL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENN 46–32 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKENN 49–28 DEL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENN 53–25 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 21–49 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 25–46 DEL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENN 28–42 DEL neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKENN 32–39 DEL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENN 35–35 DEL neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKENN 39–32 DEL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKENN 42–28 DEL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENN 46–25 DEL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENN 49–21 DEL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENN 18–46 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 21–42 DEL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENN 25–39 DEL neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENN 28–35 DEL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKENN 32–32 DEL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKENN 35–28 DEL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENN 39–25 DEL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENN 42–21 DEL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENN 46–18 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 14–42 DEL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENN 18–39 DEL neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENN 21–35 DEL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENN 25–32 DEL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENN 28–28 DEL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKENN 32–25 DEL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKENN 35–21 DEL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKENN 39–18 DEL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKENN 42–14 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 11–39 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 14–35 DEL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENN 18–32 DEL neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENN 21–28 DEL neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKENN 25–25 DEL neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKENN 28–21 DEL neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKENN 32–18 DEL neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKENN 35–14 DEL neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKENN 39–11 DEL neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 7–35 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 11–32 DEL neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKENN 14–28 DEL neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKENN 18–25 DEL neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesKENN 21–21 DEL neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENN 25–18 DEL neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKENN 28–14 DEL neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENN 32–11 DEL neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENN 35–7 DEL neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENN 4–32 DEL neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENN 7–28 DEL neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENN 11–25 DEL neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKENN 14–21 DEL neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENN 18–18 DEL neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKENN 21–14 DEL neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENN 25–11 DEL neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKENN 28–7 DEL neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENN 32–4 DEL neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalDEL +28DEL +14PKKENN +14KENN +28margin →