AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 5:00 AM
#109Away
Florida International
0-0 · AVR 36.2
26p
#105Home
Kennesaw State
0-0 · AVR 38.1
26p
FIU 48%52% KENN
Spread
KENN -0.7
Total
52
Moneyline
FIU+107KENN-107
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FIU advantageevenKENN advantage →
FIU throw
FIU protection #99
even
FIU run
KENN +42
KENN throw
FIU +44
KENN run
FIU +40

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FIU runs
Anthony Carrie
vs
Baron Hopson
RB · FIU
MLB · KENN
57.2
76.2
KENN +19
when KENN throws
Dylan Gary
vs
Shamir Sterlin
X · KENN
CB1 · FIU
49.2
81.3
FIU +32
when KENN runs
Jonathan Mathis
vs
Brayshawn Littlejohn
RB · KENN
MLB · FIU
47.5
70.1
FIU +23
when FIU throws
Maguire Anderson
vs
Kody Jones
X · FIU
CB1 · KENN
51.3
63.2
KENN +12
off the edge· hunting Kohl
Antonio Tripp Jr.
vs
Marcus Patterson
LT · FIU
EDGE · KENN
38.2
72.4
KENN +34
over the middle
Jackson Verdugo
vs
Alexander Ford
TE · FIU
FS · KENN
47.0
50.6
KENN +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida International
DBShamir Sterlin
81.379/1427
DBJai-Ayviauynn Celestine
70.2233/1427
LBBrayshawn Littlejohn
70.1144/878
QBJJ Kohl
68.047/308
DBLawrence Johnson
61.5445/1427
RBAnthony Carrie
57.2136/514
Kennesaw State
LBBaron Hopson
76.294/878
LBDonovan Westmoreland
70.5137/878
DBKody Jones
63.2400/1427
DBTony Williams Jr.
60.3475/1427
DBIsaac Paul
57.4551/1427
WRDylan Gary
49.2333/777

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida International
opponent
Kennesaw State
home+6.9
Middle Tennessee#124
+0.1away
home+8.8
Missouri State#125
+2.0away
home+13.2
Sam Houston#137
+6.4away
away-7.2
Jacksonville State#89
-3.9home
away-5.7
Liberty#106
-2.5home
away-2.0
Delaware#102
+1.2home

Projected margin

80% between -17 and 18
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKENN +0.795% interval: -23.2 to 24.680% interval: -16.6 to 18.1-17+18FIU wins 48%KENN wins 52%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KENN 25–25 FIUKENN 21–49 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 25–46 FIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKENN 28–42 FIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKENN 32–39 FIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKENN 35–35 FIU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKENN 39–32 FIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENN 42–28 FIU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKENN 46–25 FIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKENN 49–21 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 18–46 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 21–42 FIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENN 25–39 FIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENN 28–35 FIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKENN 32–32 FIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKENN 35–28 FIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKENN 39–25 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENN 42–21 FIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENN 46–18 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENN 14–42 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENN 18–39 FIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENN 21–35 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENN 25–32 FIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENN 28–28 FIU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKENN 32–25 FIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKENN 35–21 FIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENN 39–18 FIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKENN 42–14 FIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 11–39 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENN 14–35 FIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKENN 18–32 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENN 21–28 FIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKENN 25–25 FIU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesKENN 28–21 FIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKENN 32–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENN 35–14 FIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKENN 39–11 FIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 7–35 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 11–32 FIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENN 14–28 FIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENN 18–25 FIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKENN 21–21 FIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKENN 25–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKENN 28–14 FIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKENN 32–11 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENN 35–7 FIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKENN 4–32 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 7–28 FIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKENN 11–25 FIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKENN 14–21 FIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKENN 18–18 FIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKENN 21–14 FIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesKENN 25–11 FIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKENN 28–7 FIU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKENN 32–4 FIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKENN 0–28 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKENN 4–25 FIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKENN 7–21 FIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKENN 11–18 FIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesKENN 14–14 FIU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKENN 18–11 FIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKENN 21–7 FIU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKENN 25–4 FIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKENN 28–0 FIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes70635649423528totalFIU +28FIU +14PKKENN +14KENN +28margin →