AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#94Away
Louisiana Tech
0-0 · AVR 42.0
30p
#132Home
UL Monroe
0-0 · AVR 26.4
21p
LT 74%26% ULM
Spread
LT -9.4
Total
51
Moneyline
LT-280ULM+280
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LT advantageevenULM advantage →
LT throw
LT +23
LT run
ULM front #130ULM linebackers #19
LT +8
ULM throw
LT +58
ULM run
LT +41

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ULM throws
JP Coulter
vs
Jaitlin Hampton
X · ULM
CB1 · LT
48.1
83.7
LT +36
over the middle
Bryce Anderson
vs
Sam Fongang
TE · ULM
FS · LT
61.0
68.5
LT +7
off the edge· hunting Armenta
Drew Hutchinson
vs
Judd Rouyea
LT · ULM
EDGE · LT
41.3
83.2
LT +42
when LT throws
Jalen Mickens
vs
Jabari Tiller
X · LT
CB1 · ULM
44.3
57.9
ULM +14
off the edge· hunting Kukuk
Troy Smith III
vs
James Smith
LT · LT
EDGE · ULM
53.7
42.7
LT +11
over the middle
Eli Finley
vs
Armoni Rue
TE · LT
FS · ULM
46.7
41.2
LT +6

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Louisiana Tech
DBJaitlin Hampton
83.760/1427
DBKam Franklin
75.3152/1427
DBJavari Lockhart
69.1261/1427
DBSam Fongang
68.5274/1427
LBJadon Mayfield
68.2175/878
LBAlonzo Jackson Jr.
61.2265/878
UL Monroe
LBNoah Flemmings
86.119/878
LBMarcus Ross
74.9106/878
LBJaeden Calender
67.4188/878
TEBryce Anderson
61.046/287
DBJabari Tiller
57.9535/1427
WRJP Coulter
48.1373/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Louisiana Tech
opponent
UL Monroe
home+4.3
Arkansas State#104
-12.7away
away-3.1
South Alabama#100
-15.1away
home+2.7
Southern Miss#93
-9.3home
home+0.6
Louisiana#99
-11.3home
away-2.5
Troy#95
-14.4away

Projected margin

80% between -27 and 8
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLT +9.495% interval: -33.3 to 14.580% interval: -26.8 to 7.9-27+8LT wins 74%ULM wins 26%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LT 28–21 ULMULM 18–53 LT neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesULM 21–49 LT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesULM 25–46 LT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesULM 28–42 LT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesULM 32–39 LT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesULM 35–35 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesULM 39–32 LT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesULM 42–28 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 46–25 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesULM 14–49 LT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesULM 18–46 LT neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesULM 21–42 LT neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesULM 25–39 LT neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesULM 28–35 LT neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesULM 32–32 LT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesULM 35–28 LT neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesULM 39–25 LT neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesULM 42–21 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesULM 11–46 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 14–42 LT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesULM 18–39 LT neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesULM 21–35 LT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesULM 25–32 LT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesULM 28–28 LT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesULM 32–25 LT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesULM 35–21 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesULM 39–18 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 7–42 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 11–39 LT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesULM 14–35 LT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesULM 18–32 LT neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesULM 21–28 LT neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesULM 25–25 LT neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesULM 28–21 LT neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesULM 32–18 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesULM 35–14 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 4–39 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 7–35 LT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesULM 11–32 LT neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesULM 14–28 LT neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesULM 18–25 LT neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesULM 21–21 LT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesULM 25–18 LT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesULM 28–14 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesULM 32–11 LT neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 0–35 LT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesULM 4–32 LT neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesULM 7–28 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesULM 11–25 LT neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesULM 14–21 LT neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesULM 18–18 LT neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesULM 21–14 LT neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesULM 25–11 LT neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 28–7 LT neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ULM 0–28 LT neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesULM 4–25 LT neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesULM 7–21 LT neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesULM 11–18 LT neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesULM 14–14 LT neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesULM 18–11 LT neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesULM 21–7 LT neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesULM 25–4 LT neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes70635649423528totalLT +35LT +21LT +7ULM +7ULM +21margin →