AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#76Away
Old Dominion
0-0 · AVR 47.5
28p
#94Home
Louisiana Tech
0-0 · AVR 42.0
27p
ODU 53%47% LT
Spread
ODU -1.0
Total
54
Moneyline
ODU-112LT+112
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ODU advantageevenLT advantage →
ODU throw
LT +33
ODU run
even
LT throw
ODU +40
LT run
LT +6

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ODU throws
TJ Johnson
vs
Jaitlin Hampton
X · ODU
CB1 · LT
53.6
83.7
LT +30
when LT throws
Jalen Mickens
vs
Zion Frink
X · LT
CB1 · ODU
44.3
89.5
ODU +45
when ODU runs
Devin Roche
vs
Jadon Mayfield
RB · ODU
MLB · LT
64.7
68.2
LT +3
off the edge· hunting Kukuk
Troy Smith III
vs
Javen Gibson
LT · LT
EDGE · ODU
53.7
73.0
ODU +19
over the middle
Eli Finley
vs
Mario Easterly
TE · LT
FS · ODU
46.7
76.5
ODU +30
over the middle
Leon Haughton Jr.
vs
Sam Fongang
TE · ODU
FS · LT
39.3
68.5
LT +29

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Old Dominion
CBZion Frink
89.514/1427
CBBrandon Crutchfield
88.021/1427
SLucas Struck
79.793/1427
LBJackson Forrest
79.264/878
RBDevin Roche
64.775/514
WRTJ Johnson
53.6203/777
Louisiana Tech
DBJaitlin Hampton
83.760/1427
DBKam Franklin
75.3152/1427
DBJavari Lockhart
69.1261/1427
DBSam Fongang
68.5274/1427
LBJadon Mayfield
68.2175/878
LBAlonzo Jackson Jr.
61.2265/878

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Old Dominion
opponent
Louisiana Tech
home+10.0
Georgia Southern#117
+1.5away
home+6.2
Southern Miss#93
+2.7home

Projected margin

80% between -18 and 16
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKODU +1.095% interval: -24.9 to 22.980% interval: -18.4 to 16.4-18+16ODU wins 53%LT wins 47%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LT 28–28 ODULT 25–53 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 28–49 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLT 32–46 ODU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLT 35–42 ODU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLT 39–39 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLT 42–35 ODU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLT 46–32 ODU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLT 49–28 ODU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLT 53–25 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLT 21–49 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLT 25–46 ODU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLT 28–42 ODU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLT 32–39 ODU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLT 35–35 ODU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLT 39–32 ODU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLT 42–28 ODU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLT 46–25 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLT 49–21 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 18–46 ODU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLT 21–42 ODU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLT 25–39 ODU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLT 28–35 ODU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLT 32–32 ODU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLT 35–28 ODU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLT 39–25 ODU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLT 42–21 ODU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLT 46–18 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 14–42 ODU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLT 18–39 ODU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLT 21–35 ODU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLT 25–32 ODU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLT 28–28 ODU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesLT 32–25 ODU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLT 35–21 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLT 39–18 ODU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLT 42–14 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLT 11–39 ODU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLT 14–35 ODU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLT 18–32 ODU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLT 21–28 ODU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLT 25–25 ODU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLT 28–21 ODU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesLT 32–18 ODU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLT 35–14 ODU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLT 39–11 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLT 7–35 ODU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLT 11–32 ODU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLT 14–28 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLT 18–25 ODU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLT 21–21 ODU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLT 25–18 ODU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLT 28–14 ODU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLT 32–11 ODU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLT 35–7 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 4–32 ODU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 7–28 ODU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLT 11–25 ODU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLT 14–21 ODU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLT 18–18 ODU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLT 21–14 ODU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLT 25–11 ODU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLT 28–7 ODU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLT 32–4 ODU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalODU +28ODU +14PKLT +14LT +28margin →