AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#93Away
Southern Miss
0-0 · AVR 42.2
32p
#132Home
UL Monroe
0-0 · AVR 26.4
23p
USM 74%26% ULM
Spread
USM -9.3
Total
54
Moneyline
USM-280ULM+280
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USM advantageevenULM advantage →
USM throw
USM +8
USM run
ULM front #130ULM linebackers #19
ULM +19
ULM throw
USM +51
ULM run
USM +31

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ULM throws
JP Coulter
vs
Ishmael Ibraheem
X · ULM
CB1 · USM
48.1
95.9
USM +48
when USM runs
Robert Briggs
vs
Noah Flemmings
RB · USM
MLB · ULM
52.7
86.1
ULM +33
over the middle
Bryce Anderson
vs
MaLik Caswell
TE · ULM
FS · USM
61.0
60.1
dead even
off the edge· hunting Armenta
Drew Hutchinson
vs
Jameer Lewis
LT · ULM
EDGE · USM
41.3
72.6
USM +31
when USM throws
Mario Sanders
vs
Jabari Tiller
X · USM
CB1 · ULM
52.8
57.9
ULM +5

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Southern Miss
CBIshmael Ibraheem
95.94/1427
DBKolby Peavy
72.4184/1427
LBMelvin Spriggs
70.3140/878
DBCannon McClain
64.0385/1427
LBMathis Haygood
60.8270/878
SMaLik Caswell
60.1479/1427
UL Monroe
LBNoah Flemmings
86.119/878
LBMarcus Ross
74.9106/878
LBJaeden Calender
67.4188/878
TEBryce Anderson
61.046/287
DBJabari Tiller
57.9535/1427
WRJP Coulter
48.1373/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Southern Miss
opponent
UL Monroe
home+1.7
South Alabama#100
-15.1away
home+4.1
Arkansas State#104
-12.7away
away-2.6
Troy#95
-14.4away
home+0.5
Louisiana#99
-11.3home
away-2.7
Louisiana Tech#94
-9.4home

Projected margin

80% between -27 and 8
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUSM +9.395% interval: -33.2 to 14.680% interval: -26.7 to 8.1-27+8USM wins 74%ULM wins 26%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ USM 32–25 ULMULM 21–56 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 25–53 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesULM 28–49 USM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesULM 32–46 USM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesULM 35–42 USM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesULM 39–39 USM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesULM 42–35 USM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesULM 46–32 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesULM 49–28 USM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesULM 18–53 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesULM 21–49 USM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesULM 25–46 USM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesULM 28–42 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesULM 32–39 USM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesULM 35–35 USM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesULM 39–32 USM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesULM 42–28 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 46–25 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesULM 14–49 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 18–46 USM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesULM 21–42 USM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesULM 25–39 USM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesULM 28–35 USM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesULM 32–32 USM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesULM 35–28 USM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesULM 39–25 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesULM 42–21 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 11–46 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 14–42 USM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesULM 18–39 USM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesULM 21–35 USM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesULM 25–32 USM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesULM 28–28 USM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesULM 32–25 USM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesULM 35–21 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesULM 39–18 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 7–42 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 11–39 USM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesULM 14–35 USM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesULM 18–32 USM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesULM 21–28 USM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesULM 25–25 USM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesULM 28–21 USM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesULM 32–18 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesULM 35–14 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesULM 4–39 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesULM 7–35 USM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesULM 11–32 USM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesULM 14–28 USM neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesULM 18–25 USM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesULM 21–21 USM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesULM 25–18 USM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesULM 28–14 USM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesULM 32–11 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesULM 0–35 USM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesULM 4–32 USM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesULM 7–28 USM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesULM 11–25 USM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesULM 14–21 USM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesULM 18–18 USM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesULM 21–14 USM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesULM 25–11 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesULM 28–7 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSM +35USM +21USM +7ULM +7ULM +21margin →