CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 12:00 AM ET
Forecast win probability
USM 72.8%27.2% ULM
Projected margin
USM by 9.6
Projected total
58
80% outcome range
USM 28 to ULM 9
Win probability
USM 72.8%

Current team profiles

Southern Miss
UL Monroe

When Southern Miss has the ball

Passing

USM offense
Higher-ranked profile
USM offense
#111
ULM defense
#132
EPA comparison
0.08
#111
0.45
#132
Pass EPA

Rushing

USM offense
Higher-ranked profile
USM offense
#30
ULM defense
#136
EPA comparison
0.20
#30
0.27
#136
Rush EPA

Drive success

USM offense
Higher-ranked profile
USM offense
#62
ULM defense
#136
Success rates
44%
#62
51%
#136
Success rate
More metrics
0.08
#95
0.32
#137
EPA / play
1.19
#94
1.24
#84
Explosiveness
15%
#73
11%
#133
Havoc

When UL Monroe has the ball

Passing

USM defense
Higher-ranked profile
USM defense
#103
ULM offense
#111
EPA comparison
0.27
#103
0.08
#111
Pass EPA

Rushing

ULM offense
Higher-ranked profile
USM defense
#134
ULM offense
#100
EPA comparison
0.26
#134
0.03
#100
Rush EPA

Drive success

ULM offense
Higher-ranked profile
USM defense
#110
ULM offense
#88
Success rates
45%
#110
42%
#88
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#122
0.00
#121
EPA / play
1.24
#78
1.16
#102
Explosiveness
12%
#129
17%
#120
Havoc

Current key players

Southern Miss
QBEthan Hampton
419 yds · 2 TD · 4 INT
69.3163/729
LBMelvin Spriggs
10 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
89.4
Coverage
62.7
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
86.231/1796
WRMJ Johnson
9 rec · 120 yds · 0 TD
83.631/2069
DBKobi Albert
13 tkl · 1 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
74.7
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
52
Passer rating allowed
16.7
Missed tackles
0
83.334/2969
DBJonah Martinez
3 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.5
Coverage
89.8
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
25
Passer rating allowed
13.5
Missed tackles
2
83.136/2969
DBLaquan Robinson
20 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
77.5
Coverage
79.6
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
2
80.160/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Ethan Hampton · QBout · 2026-09-25

    Hampton is nursing with a hand injury, and a timetable for return has yet to be established.

  • Grant Page · WRout · 2026-09-22

    Page is sidelined due to a dislocated elbow, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Jaylen Himes · WRout · 2026-09-25

    Himes is out of commission due to a foot injury, and he will miss an extended period.

UL Monroe
QBAustin Carlisle
312 yds · 3 TD · 3 INT
70.1152/729
LBBilly Pullen
8 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.8
Coverage
78.7
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
55
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
74.3206/1796
RBZach Palmer-Smith
68 yds · 1 TD · 4.9 YPC
73.9197/1044
SLarell Howling
5 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.0
Coverage
67.7
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
72.5308/2969
LBMarcus Ross
27 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.8
Coverage
70.5
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
35
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
71.6304/1796
WRJaiden Tucker
1 rec · 52 yds · 0 TD
70.7237/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Jaydon Wright · RBout · 2026-10-03

    Wright is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and he is unlikely to be available against South Alabama on Saturday, October 3rd.

  • Derrick Jameson · RBQues. · 2026-10-01

    Jameson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against the South Alabama on Saturday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

USM
ULM
vs
Offense
69.3
#103 of 138
QB
70.1
#99 of 138
71.1
#110 of 138
RB
73.6
#91 of 138
74.2
#40 of 138
WR
69.2
#92 of 138
70.8
#58 of 138
TE
60.2
#118 of 138
72.9
#28 of 138
OL
64.2
#103 of 138
Defense
70.4
#100 of 138
DL
70.7
#96 of 138
75.7
#55 of 138
LB
71.7
#91 of 138
76.2
#23 of 138
DB
63.4
#137 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Southern Miss
opponent
UL Monroe
H+2.0
ARST#91
-15.5A
H-1.7
USA#96
-17.0A
H-3.1
UL#92
-15.3H
A-4.5
LT#87
-11.4H
A-21.0
TROY#111
-14.5A