AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#83Away
Marshall
0-0 · AVR 45.8
29p
#76Home
Old Dominion
0-0 · AVR 47.5
32p
MRSH 41%59% ODU
Spread
ODU -3.2
Total
60
Moneyline
MRSH+142ODU-142
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MRSH advantageevenODU advantage →
MRSH throw
MRSH protection #97
ODU +17
MRSH run
ODU +28
ODU throw
MRSH +6
ODU run
ODU +21

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when MRSH throws
De'Andre Tamarez
vs
Zion Frink
X · MRSH
CB1 · ODU
67.4
89.5
ODU +22
when ODU runs
Devin Roche
vs
Javae Gilmore
RB · ODU
MLB · MRSH
64.7
81.8
MRSH +17
over the middle
Toby Payne
vs
Mario Easterly
TE · MRSH
FS · ODU
56.9
76.5
ODU +20
when ODU throws
TJ Johnson
vs
Boogie Trotter
X · ODU
CB1 · MRSH
53.6
79.3
MRSH +26
when MRSH runs
Jo'Shon Barbie
vs
Jackson Forrest
RB · MRSH
MLB · ODU
51.6
79.2
ODU +28
off the edge· hunting Rio-Wilson
Tariq Montgomery
vs
Javen Gibson
LT · MRSH
EDGE · ODU
32.0
73.0
ODU +41

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Marshall
LBJavae Gilmore
81.843/878
CBBoogie Trotter
79.397/1427
QBCarlos Del Rio-Wilson
76.328/308
DBCharles McCartherens
69.6250/1427
WRDe'Andre Tamarez
67.468/777
CBEddie Pleasant III
67.4293/1427
Old Dominion
CBZion Frink
89.514/1427
CBBrandon Crutchfield
88.021/1427
SLucas Struck
79.793/1427
LBJackson Forrest
79.264/878
RBDevin Roche
64.775/514
WRTJ Johnson
53.6203/777

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Marshall
opponent
Old Dominion
away+4.3
Georgia Southern#117
+10.0home
away-8.2
James Madison#55
-2.5home
home+7.3
App State#103
+3.0away
home+14.1
Coastal Carolina#126
+9.8away
home+13.6
Georgia State#131
+9.3away

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKODU +3.295% interval: -20.7 to 27.180% interval: -14.2 to 20.6-14+21MRSH wins 41%ODU wins 59%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ODU 32–32 MRSHODU 28–56 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesODU 32–53 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesODU 35–49 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesODU 39–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 42–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesODU 46–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesODU 49–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 53–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesODU 56–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesODU 25–53 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesODU 28–49 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesODU 32–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesODU 35–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesODU 39–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesODU 42–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesODU 46–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesODU 49–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesODU 53–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesODU 21–49 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesODU 25–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesODU 28–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 32–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesODU 35–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesODU 39–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesODU 42–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesODU 46–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 49–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesODU 18–46 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesODU 21–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesODU 25–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesODU 28–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesODU 32–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesODU 35–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesODU 39–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesODU 42–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesODU 46–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesODU 14–42 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesODU 18–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesODU 21–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesODU 25–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesODU 28–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesODU 32–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesODU 35–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesODU 39–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesODU 42–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesODU 11–39 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesODU 14–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesODU 18–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesODU 21–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesODU 25–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesODU 28–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesODU 32–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesODU 35–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesODU 39–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesODU 7–35 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesODU 11–32 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesODU 14–28 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesODU 18–25 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesODU 21–21 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesODU 25–18 MRSH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesODU 28–14 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesODU 32–11 MRSH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesODU 35–7 MRSH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomes84777063564942totalMRSH +28MRSH +14PKODU +14ODU +28margin →