AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 11 · Sat Nov 14 · 5:00 AM
#93Away
Southern Miss
0-0 · AVR 42.2
25p
#94Home
Louisiana Tech
0-0 · AVR 42.0
28p
USM 43%57% LT
Spread
LT -2.7
Total
53
Moneyline
USM+134LT-134
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USM advantageevenLT advantage →
USM throw
LT +48
USM run
LT +30
LT throw
USM +27
LT run
LT +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when LT throws
Jalen Mickens
vs
Ishmael Ibraheem
X · LT
CB1 · USM
44.3
95.9
USM +52
when USM throws
Mario Sanders
vs
Jaitlin Hampton
X · USM
CB1 · LT
52.8
83.7
LT +31
off the edge· hunting Kukuk
Troy Smith III
vs
Jameer Lewis
LT · LT
EDGE · USM
53.7
72.6
USM +19
when USM runs
Robert Briggs
vs
Jadon Mayfield
RB · USM
MLB · LT
52.7
68.2
LT +15
over the middle
Eli Finley
vs
MaLik Caswell
TE · LT
FS · USM
46.7
60.1
USM +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Southern Miss
CBIshmael Ibraheem
95.94/1427
DBKolby Peavy
72.4184/1427
LBMelvin Spriggs
70.3140/878
DBCannon McClain
64.0385/1427
LBMathis Haygood
60.8270/878
SMaLik Caswell
60.1479/1427
Louisiana Tech
DBJaitlin Hampton
83.760/1427
DBKam Franklin
75.3152/1427
DBJavari Lockhart
69.1261/1427
DBSam Fongang
68.5274/1427
LBJadon Mayfield
68.2175/878
LBAlonzo Jackson Jr.
61.2265/878

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Southern Miss
opponent
Louisiana Tech
away-6.2
Old Dominion#76
-1.0home
home+1.7
South Alabama#100
-3.1away
home+4.1
Arkansas State#104
+4.3home
away-2.6
Troy#95
-2.5away
home+0.5
Louisiana#99
+0.6home
away+9.3
UL Monroe#132
+9.4away

Projected margin

80% between -15 and 20
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLT +2.795% interval: -21.2 to 26.680% interval: -14.7 to 20-15+20USM wins 43%LT wins 57%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LT 28–28 USMLT 25–53 USM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesLT 28–49 USM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLT 32–46 USM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLT 35–42 USM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLT 39–39 USM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLT 42–35 USM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLT 46–32 USM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLT 49–28 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLT 53–25 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 21–49 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLT 25–46 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLT 28–42 USM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLT 32–39 USM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLT 35–35 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLT 39–32 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLT 42–28 USM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLT 46–25 USM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLT 49–21 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLT 18–46 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLT 21–42 USM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLT 25–39 USM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLT 28–35 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLT 32–32 USM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLT 35–28 USM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLT 39–25 USM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLT 42–21 USM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLT 46–18 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLT 14–42 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 18–39 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLT 21–35 USM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLT 25–32 USM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLT 28–28 USM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLT 32–25 USM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLT 35–21 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLT 39–18 USM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLT 42–14 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLT 11–39 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLT 14–35 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLT 18–32 USM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLT 21–28 USM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLT 25–25 USM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLT 28–21 USM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLT 32–18 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLT 35–14 USM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLT 39–11 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLT 7–35 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLT 11–32 USM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLT 14–28 USM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLT 18–25 USM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLT 21–21 USM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLT 25–18 USM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLT 28–14 USM neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesLT 32–11 USM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesLT 35–7 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLT 4–32 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLT 7–28 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLT 11–25 USM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLT 14–21 USM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLT 18–18 USM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLT 21–14 USM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLT 25–11 USM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesLT 28–7 USM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesLT 32–4 USM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalUSM +28USM +14PKLT +14LT +28margin →