AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 7:30 PM
#27Away
Clemson
0-0 · AVR 65.6
17p
#20Home
LSU
0-0 · AVR 68.3
35p
CLEM 11%89% LSU
Spread
LSU -17.8
Total
52
Moneyline
CLEM+777LSU-777
Against the market
LSU +7.3line LSU -10.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← CLEM advantageevenLSU advantage →
CLEM throw
CLEM QB #108CLEM WR #31
LSU +41
CLEM run
LSU +12
LSU throw
LSU WR #5LSU protection #111
CLEM +32
LSU run
LSU line #111LSU backs #60
CLEM +51

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when LSU throws
Tre' Brown
vs
Ashton Hampton
X · LSU
CB1 · CLEM
86.3
87.1
dead even
off the edge· hunting Denson
Dietrick Pennington
vs
Princewill Umanmielen
LT · CLEM
EDGE · LSU
70.7
99.9
LSU +29
when CLEM throws
T.J. Moore
vs
DJ Pickett
X · CLEM
CB1 · LSU
71.6
93.7
LSU +22
when LSU runs
Caden Durham
vs
Sammy Brown
RB · LSU
MLB · CLEM
61.0
80.8
CLEM +20
off the edge· hunting Leavitt
Aliou Bah
vs
Will Heldt
LT · LSU
EDGE · CLEM
35.8
102.2
CLEM +66
when CLEM runs
Chris Johnson Jr.
vs
TJ Dottery
RB · CLEM
MLB · LSU
68.0
69.2
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Clemson
CBAshton Hampton
87.127/1427
SCorey Myrick
84.747/1427
SJerome Carter III
81.873/1427
LBSammy Brown
80.848/878
WRT.J. Moore
71.643/777
RBChris Johnson Jr.
68.068/514

also out — Clemson defensive tackle (DL), Former Clemson corner (CB), P. Streko (RB), Clemson, Clemson defensive back (DB), Clemson freshman standout, Clemson player, Clemson safety (S) +10 more

LSU
CBDJ Pickettprobable
93.75/1427
CBPJ Woodland
88.818/1427
SDashawn Spears
87.324/1427
WRTre' Brown
86.311/777
WRWinston Watkins Jr.
71.444/777
LBTJ Dottery
69.2159/878

also out — projected offensive starter, Jamal Adams (CB), Former LSU football star, Decision Means Losing, Daniels Finally Speaks, Malik Nabers (WR)

Projected margin

80% between -2 and 37
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLSU +17.8MKT95% interval: -11 to 4680% interval: -2 to 37-2+37CLEM wins 11%LSU wins 89%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LSU 35–14 CLEMLSU 32–39 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesLSU 35–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesLSU 39–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesLSU 42–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLSU 46–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLSU 49–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLSU 53–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLSU 56–14 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLSU 60–11 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 28–35 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 32–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLSU 35–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesLSU 39–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLSU 42–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesLSU 46–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLSU 49–14 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLSU 53–11 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 56–7 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesLSU 25–32 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 28–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLSU 32–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 35–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesLSU 39–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLSU 42–14 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 46–11 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLSU 49–7 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLSU 53–4 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLSU 21–28 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLSU 25–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLSU 28–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 32–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLSU 35–14 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesLSU 39–11 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesLSU 42–7 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesLSU 46–4 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesLSU 49–0 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesLSU 18–25 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesLSU 21–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesLSU 25–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesLSU 28–14 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesLSU 32–11 CLEM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesLSU 35–7 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesLSU 39–4 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLSU 42–0 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)LSU 14–21 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesLSU 18–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesLSU 21–14 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLSU 25–11 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 28–7 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesLSU 32–4 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesLSU 35–0 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)LSU 11–18 CLEM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesLSU 14–14 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesLSU 18–11 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesLSU 21–7 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLSU 25–4 CLEM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesLSU 28–0 CLEM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalCLEM +7LSU +7LSU +21LSU +35LSU +49margin →