AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Fri Sep 4 · 8:00 PM
#133Away
UTEP
0-0 · AVR 26.2
7p
#11Home
Oklahoma
0-0 · AVR 74.3
44p
UTEP 1%100% OU
Spread
OU -36.8
Total
51
Moneyline
UTEP—OU—
Against the market
UTEP +4.7line OU -41.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UTEP advantageevenOU advantage →
UTEP throw
OU +92
UTEP run
OU +91
OU throw
OU +40
OU run
OU +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UTEP runs
Tavorus Jones
vs
Kip Lewis
RB · UTEP
MLB · OU
51.0
92.3
OU +41
when OU runs
Lloyd Avant
vs
Shay Smith
RB · OU
MLB · UTEP
62.3
80.0
UTEP +18
off the edge· hunting Mateer
Caleb Nitta
vs
Shakaun Bowser
LT · OU
EDGE · UTEP
74.3
63.5
OU +11
when OU throws
Parker Livingstone
vs
Kode Lowe
X · OU
CB1 · UTEP
71.1
61.7
OU +9
when UTEP throws
Marcus Torres
vs
Peyton Bowen
X · UTEP
CB1 · OU
36.6
86.1
OU +49
over the middle
Jack Van Dorselaer
vs
Jaime Guerrero
TE · OU
FS · UTEP
61.7
57.7
OU +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
UTEP
LBShay Smith
80.054/878
LBJayden Wilson
78.868/878
SKode Lowe
61.7435/1427
CBJustin Content
59.8491/1427
SXavier Smith
58.7516/1427
SJaime Guerrero
57.7541/1427
Oklahoma
LBKip Lewis
92.36/878
LBOwen Heinecke
91.78/878
DBPeyton Bowen
86.134/1427
DBEli Bowenprobable
83.063/1427
DBCourtland Guillory
82.468/1427
QBJohn Mateerprobable
71.835/308

also out — Michael Fasusi, Jaren Kanak (TE), Oklahoma OL (OL), Maikkula (C), Jake Maikkula (OL)

Common opponents

2 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
UTEP
opponent
Oklahoma
away-14.6
New Mexico#86
+26.0home
away-38.7
Michigan#13
-3.1away

Projected margin

80% between 18 and 54
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOU +36.8MKT95% interval: 8 to 6380% interval: 18 to 54+18+54UTEP wins 1%OU wins 100%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OU 42–7 UTEPOU 39–32 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 42–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOU 46–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOU 49–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOU 53–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOU 56–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOU 60–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOU 63–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOU 67–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 35–28 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 39–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOU 42–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOU 46–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOU 49–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesOU 53–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOU 56–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOU 60–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOU 63–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 32–25 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 35–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOU 39–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOU 42–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOU 46–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~4.0% of outcomesOU 49–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesOU 53–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOU 56–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)OU 28–21 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 32–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOU 35–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOU 39–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesOU 42–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~4.1% of outcomesOU 46–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.9% of outcomesOU 49–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OU 25–18 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 28–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOU 32–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOU 35–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOU 39–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesOU 42–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OU 21–14 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 25–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOU 28–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 32–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOU 35–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OU 18–11 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 21–7 UTEP neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOU 25–4 UTEP neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 28–0 UTEP neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalOU +7OU +21OU +35OU +49OU +63margin →