CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Fri Sep 4 · 8:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UTEP 2.3%97.7% OU
Projected margin
OU by 31.9
Projected total
48
80% outcome range
OU 11 to OU 52
Win probability
OU 97.7%
FinalUTEP 0 · OU 51model had +31.9, off by 19.1

Current team profiles

UTEP
Oklahoma

When UTEP has the ball

Passing

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP offense
#136
OU defense
#12
EPA comparison
-0.18
#136
-0.07
#12
Pass EPA

Rushing

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP offense
#132
OU defense
#26
EPA comparison
-0.10
#132
-0.08
#26
Rush EPA

Drive success

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP offense
#135
OU defense
#2
Success rates
33%
#135
32%
#2
Success rate
More metrics
-0.18
#138
-0.16
#3
EPA / play
1.28
#39
1.27
#89
Explosiveness
23%
#137
21%
#14
Havoc

When Oklahoma has the ball

Passing

OU offense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP defense
#137
OU offense
#55
EPA comparison
0.48
#137
0.27
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

UTEP defense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP defense
#107
OU offense
#138
EPA comparison
0.14
#107
-0.24
#138
Rush EPA

Drive success

OU offense
Higher-ranked profile
UTEP defense
#127
OU offense
#119
Success rates
47%
#127
38%
#119
Success rate
More metrics
0.24
#128
-0.04
#129
EPA / play
1.22
#71
1.06
#132
Explosiveness
13%
#117
17%
#114
Havoc

Current key players

UTEP
QBEJ Colson Jr.
541 yds · 7 TD · 3 INT
60.2270/729
SKane White-Tinsley
4 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
78.1
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
0
78.780/2969
CBTJ Tillman
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.0
Coverage
76.0
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
10
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
76.7141/2969
CBDecorian Thompson
13 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
70.6
Coverage
73.5
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
32
Passer rating allowed
68.8
Missed tackles
1
73.8243/2969
LBVashon Brunswick II
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
70.9
Coverage
61.7
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
70.0370/1796
LBGarrett Hawkins
20 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
86.3
Coverage
50.9
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
69.9374/1796
Availability reports · 3
  • EJ Colson Jr. · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Colson Jr. is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will play against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • CJ Simon · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Simon is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will suit up against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Mason Ferguson · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Ferguson is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Spartans on Saturday, October 17th.

Oklahoma
QBWhitt Newbauer
6 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
65.3214/729
DBPeyton Bowen
17 tkl · 4 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
81.1
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
84.925/2969
LBDane Bathurst
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.9
Coverage
63.9
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.560/1796
TETrynae Washington
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.4
Run blocking
81.4
Penalties
0
79.229/1017
WRIsaiah Sategna III
20 rec · 267 yds · 2 TD
75.7115/2069
DBEli Bowen
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
89.3
Coverage
64.2
Targets allowed
21
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
124
Passer rating allowed
58.4
Missed tackles
1
70.5412/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Trell Harris · WRout · 2026-09-15

    Harris sustained a back injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Jer'Michael Carter · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Carter is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jack Van Dorselaer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Dorselaer is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UTEP
OU
vs
Offense
60.2
#131 of 138
QB
65.3
#119 of 138
63.0
#138 of 138
RB
67.2
#134 of 138
68.3
#103 of 138
WR
68.7
#99 of 138
60.0
#121 of 138
TE
79.2
#27 of 138
63.8
#106 of 138
OL
73.3
#25 of 138
Defense
71.2
#94 of 138
DL
77.6
#30 of 138
69.3
#108 of 138
LB
73.7
#74 of 138
74.1
#44 of 138
DB
71.9
#72 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

UTEP
opponent
Oklahoma
A-54.0
UNM#33
+8.0H
A-35.0
MICH#23
-7.0A