AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sun Sep 13 · 2:15 AM
#40Away
Arkansas
0-0 · AVR 58.2
23p
#16Home
Utah
0-0 · AVR 71.8
36p
ARK 19%81% UTAH
Spread
UTAH -13.2
Total
59
Moneyline
ARK+428UTAH-428
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARK advantageevenUTAH advantage →
ARK throw
UTAH +27
ARK run
even
UTAH throw
UTAH +32
UTAH run
ARK linebackers #107
UTAH +36

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Dampier
Zereoue Williams
vs
Steven Soles Jr.
LT · UTAH
EDGE · ARK
87.1
85.2
dead even
when UTAH runs
Wayshawn Parker
vs
Ben Bogle
RB · UTAH
MLB · ARK
84.7
77.0
UTAH +8
when UTAH throws
Braden Pegan
vs
Joker Johnson
X · UTAH
CB1 · ARK
82.5
70.0
UTAH +13
over the middle
Jaden Platt
vs
Elijah Davis
TE · ARK
FS · UTAH
78.6
72.8
ARK +6
when ARK throws
Jamari Hawkins
vs
Jackson Bennee
X · ARK
CB1 · UTAH
56.7
90.2
UTAH +33
when ARK runs
Sutton Smith
vs
Johnathan Hall
RB · ARK
MLB · UTAH
68.8
65.5
ARK +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arkansas
TEJaden Platt
78.63/287
LBBen Bogle
77.088/878
DBJoker Johnson
70.0239/1427
RBSutton Smith
68.861/514
DBLa'khi Roland
64.9358/1427
DBChristian Harrison
60.9459/1427

also out — M. Lassiter (TE)

Utah
SJackson Bennee
90.211/1427
RBWayshawn Parker
84.77/514
QBDevon Dampier
83.813/308
WRBraden Pegan
82.517/777
CBElijah Reed
81.083/1427
CBRock Caldwell
77.9116/1427

also out — Kingston Stroshine (LB)

Projected margin

80% between -4 and 31
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTAH +13.295% interval: -10.8 to 37.180% interval: -4.2 to 30.5-4+31ARK wins 19%UTAH wins 81%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTAH 35–21 ARKUTAH 32–46 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 35–42 ARK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTAH 39–39 ARK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTAH 42–35 ARK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTAH 46–32 ARK neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTAH 49–28 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTAH 53–25 ARK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTAH 56–21 ARK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTAH 60–18 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 28–42 ARK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 32–39 ARK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTAH 35–35 ARK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 39–32 ARK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTAH 42–28 ARK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTAH 46–25 ARK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTAH 49–21 ARK neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTAH 53–18 ARK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTAH 56–14 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 25–39 ARK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 28–35 ARK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTAH 32–32 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTAH 35–28 ARK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTAH 39–25 ARK neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUTAH 42–21 ARK neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTAH 46–18 ARK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 49–14 ARK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTAH 53–11 ARK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 21–35 ARK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 25–32 ARK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTAH 28–28 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTAH 32–25 ARK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTAH 35–21 ARK neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUTAH 39–18 ARK neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTAH 42–14 ARK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 46–11 ARK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTAH 49–7 ARK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 18–32 ARK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 21–28 ARK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTAH 25–25 ARK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 28–21 ARK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTAH 32–18 ARK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTAH 35–14 ARK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTAH 39–11 ARK neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTAH 42–7 ARK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTAH 46–4 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 14–28 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 18–25 ARK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTAH 21–21 ARK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTAH 25–18 ARK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUTAH 28–14 ARK neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTAH 32–11 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTAH 35–7 ARK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTAH 39–4 ARK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTAH 42–0 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 11–25 ARK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTAH 14–21 ARK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTAH 18–18 ARK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTAH 21–14 ARK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTAH 25–11 ARK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUTAH 28–7 ARK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTAH 32–4 ARK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTAH 35–0 ARK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalARK +14PKUTAH +14UTAH +28UTAH +42margin →