CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 10:15 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ARK 10.4%89.6% UTAH
Projected margin
UTAH by 19.7
Projected total
61
80% outcome range
ARK 1 to UTAH 39
Win probability
UTAH 89.6%
FinalARK 10 · UTAH 43model had +19.7, off by 13.3

Current team profiles

Arkansas
Utah

When Arkansas has the ball

Passing

UTAH defense
Higher-ranked profile
ARK offense
#88
UTAH defense
#17
EPA comparison
0.14
#88
-0.01
#17
Pass EPA

Rushing

UTAH defense
Higher-ranked profile
ARK offense
#134
UTAH defense
#16
EPA comparison
-0.11
#134
-0.11
#16
Rush EPA

Drive success

UTAH defense
Higher-ranked profile
ARK offense
#96
UTAH defense
#8
Success rates
41%
#96
33%
#8
Success rate
More metrics
0.01
#120
-0.06
#19
EPA / play
1.08
#129
1.36
#120
Explosiveness
19%
#126
19%
#23
Havoc

When Utah has the ball

Passing

UTAH offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARK defense
#84
UTAH offense
#30
EPA comparison
0.19
#84
0.38
#30
Pass EPA

Rushing

UTAH offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARK defense
#125
UTAH offense
#5
EPA comparison
0.20
#125
0.30
#5
Rush EPA

Drive success

UTAH offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARK defense
#100
UTAH offense
#9
Success rates
43%
#100
51%
#9
Success rate
More metrics
0.17
#111
0.32
#9
EPA / play
1.16
#38
1.31
#28
Explosiveness
13%
#111
13%
#36
Havoc

Current key players

Arkansas
QBKJ Jackson
1038 yds · 6 TD · 4 INT
64.0225/729
WRChris Marshall
35 rec · 517 yds · 2 TD
81.246/2069
LBBen Bogle
36 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
85.7
Coverage
58.6
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
4
Forced fumbles
0
78.799/1796
DBShelton Lewis
13 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
62.7
Coverage
81.3
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
45
Passer rating allowed
64.6
Missed tackles
1
78.584/2969
DBKhmori House
33 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
84.7
Coverage
68.2
Targets allowed
16
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
107
Passer rating allowed
94.5
Missed tackles
1
73.2266/2969
WRJelani Watkins
27 rush yds · 0 TD · 3 car
73.0164/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Maddox Lassiter · TEout · 2026-08-16

    Lassiter has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an upper body injury.

  • H. Hendrix · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hendrix is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear whether he will play against Commodores on Saturday, October 17th.

Utah
QBDevon Dampier
896 yds · 9 TD · 1 INT
89.427/729
RBWayshawn Parker
328 yds · 5 TD · 6.6 YPC
85.633/1044
SRabbit Evans
14 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.4
Coverage
80.6
Targets allowed
3
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
-2
Passer rating allowed
2.8
Missed tackles
0
81.049/2969
WRLarry Simmons
5 rec · 95 yds · 0 TD
79.264/2069
WRBraden Pegan
17 rec · 264 yds · 4 TD
77.975/2069
SNate Ritchie
19 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
76.2
Coverage
76.8
Targets allowed
5
Rec allowed
2
Yards allowed
24
Passer rating allowed
55.4
Missed tackles
0
77.998/2969
Position units

Position-unit comparison

ARK
UTAH
vs
Offense
64.0
#122 of 138
QB
89.4
#26 of 138
67.0
#135 of 138
RB
85.5
#8 of 138
72.9
#50 of 138
WR
77.2
#24 of 138
61.8
#107 of 138
TE
74.4
#40 of 138
64.3
#102 of 138
OL
70.0
#55 of 138
Defense
72.4
#79 of 138
DL
76.3
#40 of 138
70.2
#103 of 138
LB
73.1
#79 of 138
70.2
#94 of 138
DB
73.7
#47 of 138
Common opponents