AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 4:00 AM
#93Away
Southern Miss
0-0 · AVR 42.2
17p
#31Home
Auburn
0-0 · AVR 62.1
36p
USM 11%89% AUB
Spread
AUB -18.4
Total
53
Moneyline
USM+843AUB-843
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USM advantageevenAUB advantage →
USM throw
AUB pass rush #18
AUB +39
USM run
AUB +61
AUB throw
AUB protection #51
AUB +18
AUB run
AUB +26

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when AUB throws
Keshaun Singleton
vs
Ishmael Ibraheem
X · AUB
CB1 · USM
86.7
95.9
USM +9
when AUB runs
Jeremiah Cobb
vs
Melvin Spriggs
RB · AUB
MLB · USM
78.7
70.3
AUB +8
when USM runs
Robert Briggs
vs
Xavier Atkins
RB · USM
MLB · AUB
52.7
93.4
AUB +41
over the middle
Jonathan Echols
vs
MaLik Caswell
TE · AUB
FS · USM
67.1
60.1
AUB +7
off the edge· hunting Brown
Jacob Strand
vs
Jameer Lewis
LT · AUB
EDGE · USM
53.1
72.6
USM +19
when USM throws
Mario Sanders
vs
Fred Gaskin III
X · USM
CB1 · AUB
52.8
66.3
AUB +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Southern Miss
CBIshmael Ibraheem
95.94/1427
DBKolby Peavy
72.4184/1427
LBMelvin Spriggs
70.3140/878
DBCannon McClain
64.0385/1427
LBMathis Haygood
60.8270/878
SMaLik Caswell
60.1479/1427
Auburn
LBXavier Atkins
93.44/878
WRKeshaun Singleton
86.79/777
WRJeremiah Koger
83.116/777
QBByrum Brown
81.319/308
RBJeremiah Cobb
78.729/514
LBColeman Granberry
78.082/878

also out — Fly, Tai Buster (OL), tight end (TE), Auburn Linebacker Likely, Auburn edge rusher (DL), Auburn linebacker (LB), J.J. Faulk (EDGE), Auburn RB (RB) +3 more

Projected margin

80% between 1 and 36
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAUB +18.495% interval: -5.5 to 42.380% interval: 1 to 35.8+1+36USM wins 11%AUB wins 89%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AUB 39–18 USMAUB 35–42 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 39–39 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 42–35 USM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAUB 46–32 USM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 49–28 USM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 53–25 USM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAUB 56–21 USM neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAUB 60–18 USM neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAUB 63–14 USM neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesAUB 32–39 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 35–35 USM neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAUB 39–32 USM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 42–28 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAUB 46–25 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAUB 49–21 USM neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAUB 53–18 USM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAUB 56–14 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 60–11 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAUB 28–35 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 32–32 USM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAUB 35–28 USM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAUB 39–25 USM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAUB 42–21 USM neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAUB 46–18 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAUB 49–14 USM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAUB 53–11 USM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAUB 56–7 USM neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAUB 25–32 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 28–28 USM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAUB 32–25 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAUB 35–21 USM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAUB 39–18 USM neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesAUB 42–14 USM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAUB 46–11 USM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAUB 49–7 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 53–4 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 21–28 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 25–25 USM neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAUB 28–21 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAUB 32–18 USM neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAUB 35–14 USM neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesAUB 39–11 USM neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAUB 42–7 USM neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAUB 46–4 USM neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 49–0 USM neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 18–25 USM neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 21–21 USM neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAUB 25–18 USM neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAUB 28–14 USM neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAUB 32–11 USM neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAUB 35–7 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAUB 39–4 USM neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAUB 42–0 USM neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)AUB 14–21 USM neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 18–18 USM neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAUB 21–14 USM neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 25–11 USM neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAUB 28–7 USM neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAUB 32–4 USM neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAUB 35–0 USM neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalUSM +7AUB +7AUB +21AUB +35AUB +49margin →