CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:45 PM ET
#103Away
Southern Miss
1-0 · AVR 52.6
8
Final
#35Home
Auburn
1-0 · AVR 66.2
43
Forecast win probability
USM 3.4%96.6% AUB
Projected margin
AUB by 26.3
Projected total
48
80% outcome range
AUB 7 to AUB 45
Win probability
AUB 96.6%
FinalUSM 8 · AUB 43model had +26.3, off by 8.7

Current team profiles

Southern Miss
Auburn

When Southern Miss has the ball

Passing

AUB defense
Higher-ranked profile
USM offense
#111
AUB defense
#41
EPA comparison
0.08
#111
0.07
#41
Pass EPA

Rushing

USM offense
Higher-ranked profile
USM offense
#30
AUB defense
#73
EPA comparison
0.20
#30
0.05
#73
Rush EPA

Drive success

AUB defense
Higher-ranked profile
USM offense
#62
AUB defense
#50
Success rates
44%
#62
38%
#50
Success rate
More metrics
0.08
#95
0.01
#44
EPA / play
1.19
#94
1.18
#45
Explosiveness
15%
#73
17%
#57
Havoc

When Auburn has the ball

Passing

USM defense
Higher-ranked profile
USM defense
#103
AUB offense
#119
EPA comparison
0.27
#103
0.04
#119
Pass EPA

Rushing

AUB offense
Higher-ranked profile
USM defense
#134
AUB offense
#39
EPA comparison
0.26
#134
0.18
#39
Rush EPA

Drive success

AUB offense
Higher-ranked profile
USM defense
#110
AUB offense
#86
Success rates
45%
#110
42%
#86
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#122
0.07
#98
EPA / play
1.24
#78
1.26
#55
Explosiveness
12%
#129
16%
#102
Havoc

Current key players

Southern Miss
QBEthan Hampton
419 yds · 2 TD · 4 INT
69.3163/729
LBMelvin Spriggs
10 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
89.4
Coverage
62.7
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
1
86.231/1796
WRMJ Johnson
9 rec · 120 yds · 0 TD
83.631/2069
DBKobi Albert
13 tkl · 1 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
74.7
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
18
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
52
Passer rating allowed
16.7
Missed tackles
0
83.334/2969
DBJonah Martinez
3 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
63.5
Coverage
89.8
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
25
Passer rating allowed
13.5
Missed tackles
2
83.136/2969
DBLaquan Robinson
20 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
77.5
Coverage
79.6
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
2
80.160/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Ethan Hampton · QBout · 2026-09-25

    Hampton is nursing with a hand injury, and a timetable for return has yet to be established.

  • Grant Page · WRout · 2026-09-22

    Page is sidelined due to a dislocated elbow, and team officials have yet to provide an exact return date.

  • Jaylen Himes · WRout · 2026-09-25

    Himes is out of commission due to a foot injury, and he will miss an extended period.

Auburn
QBByrum Brown
1052 yds · 7 TD · 7 INT
83.056/729
LBMichael Matthews-Canty
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.3
Coverage
72.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.447/1796
RBOmar Mabson II
213 yds · 1 TD · 6.5 YPC
77.0133/1044
LBXavier Atkins
37 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.8
Coverage
55.6
Pressures
19
Pass-rush snaps
57
Missed tackles
10
Forced fumbles
0
75.1180/1796
SSylvester Smith-Reed
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.1
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
48
Passer rating allowed
32.6
Missed tackles
2
72.5302/2969
WRKeshaun Singleton
29 rec · 322 yds · 1 TD
71.2220/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Nykahi Davenport · RBout · 2026-09-20

    Davenport is managing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no time table for his return.

  • Hunter Herring · TEQues. · 2026-09-20

    Herring is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be available against Commodores on Saturday, September 26th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

USM
AUB
vs
Offense
69.3
#103 of 138
QB
83.0
#49 of 138
71.1
#110 of 138
RB
73.9
#83 of 138
74.2
#40 of 138
WR
68.1
#106 of 138
70.8
#58 of 138
TE
63.5
#100 of 138
72.9
#28 of 138
OL
63.8
#105 of 138
Defense
70.4
#100 of 138
DL
69.2
#115 of 138
75.7
#55 of 138
LB
78.2
#35 of 138
76.2
#23 of 138
DB
66.7
#131 of 138
Common opponents