AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 4:45 PM
#75Away
Western Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 47.8
12p
#3Home
Georgia
0-0 · AVR 80.0
43p
WKU 1%99% UGA
Spread
UGA -31.2
Total
55
Moneyline
WKU—UGA—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← WKU advantageevenUGA advantage →
WKU throw
WKU protection #118UGA pass rush #88
UGA +21
WKU run
UGA front #88UGA linebackers #4
UGA +49
UGA throw
WKU pass rush #101
UGA +18
UGA run
UGA +55

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UGA throws
Isiah Canion
vs
Jaylen Lewis
X · UGA
CB1 · WKU
63.4
87.0
WKU +24
when WKU runs
Ajay Allen
vs
Chris Cole
RB · WKU
MLB · UGA
56.8
85.5
UGA +29
when UGA runs
Nate Frazier
vs
Joshua Mensah
RB · UGA
MLB · WKU
81.1
58.1
UGA +23
when WKU throws
K.D. Hutchinson
vs
KJ Bolden
X · WKU
CB1 · UGA
57.8
81.2
UGA +23
over the middle
Elyiss Williams
vs
Lataj Wright
TE · UGA
FS · WKU
62.4
71.4
WKU +9
over the middle
Griffin Reimer
vs
Ja'Marley Riddle
TE · WKU
FS · UGA
58.1
70.8
UGA +13

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Western Kentucky
DBJaylen Lewis
87.028/1427
DBDave Herard
82.666/1427
DBXavion Griffin
71.8196/1427
QBRodney Tisdale Jr.
62.961/308
TEGriffin Reimer
58.168/287
LBJoshua Mensah
58.1332/878
Georgia
LBChris Cole
85.521/878
LBRaylen Wilson
84.324/878
QBGunner Stockton
81.718/308
DBKJ Bolden
81.280/1427
RBNate Frazier
81.119/514
SKhalil Barnes
74.0164/1427

also out — unknown, Dante Dowdell (RB), Kirby Smart (RB), AJC.com (DB), Former Georgia Bulldogs OL (OL), Drew Bobo (C), Carter Loflin (OL)

Projected margin

80% between 14 and 49
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUGA +31.295% interval: 7.3 to 55.180% interval: 13.8 to 48.5+14+49WKU wins 1%UGA wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UGA 42–14 WKUUGA 39–39 WKU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUGA 42–35 WKU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 46–32 WKU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUGA 49–28 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUGA 53–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 56–21 WKU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 60–18 WKU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 63–14 WKU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUGA 67–11 WKU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 35–35 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 39–32 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 42–28 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUGA 46–25 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUGA 49–21 WKU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 53–18 WKU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 56–14 WKU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 60–11 WKU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUGA 63–7 WKU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 32–32 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 35–28 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUGA 39–25 WKU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 42–21 WKU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUGA 46–18 WKU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUGA 49–14 WKU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUGA 53–11 WKU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUGA 56–7 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUGA 60–4 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUGA 28–28 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 32–25 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUGA 35–21 WKU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUGA 39–18 WKU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 42–14 WKU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesUGA 46–11 WKU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesUGA 49–7 WKU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUGA 53–4 WKU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 56–0 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUGA 25–25 WKU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 28–21 WKU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUGA 32–18 WKU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 35–14 WKU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUGA 39–11 WKU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUGA 42–7 WKU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUGA 46–4 WKU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUGA 49–0 WKU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UGA 21–21 WKU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 25–18 WKU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUGA 28–14 WKU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUGA 32–11 WKU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUGA 35–7 WKU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUGA 39–4 WKU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUGA 42–0 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)UGA 18–18 WKU neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUGA 21–14 WKU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 25–11 WKU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUGA 28–7 WKU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUGA 32–4 WKU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUGA 35–0 WKU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKUGA +14UGA +28UGA +42UGA +56margin →