AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:30 PM
#12Away
Alabama
0-0 · AVR 74.0
36p
#67Home
Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 49.8
18p
ALA 90%10% UK
Spread
ALA -18.4
Total
54
Moneyline
ALA-890UK+890
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ALA advantageevenUK advantage →
ALA throw
ALA QB #85ALA WR #15
ALA +14
ALA run
ALA +6
UK throw
UK protection #32ALA pass rush #67
ALA +39
UK run
UK backs #105
ALA +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Minchey
Coleton Price
vs
Jeremiah Beaman
LT · UK
EDGE · ALA
85.1
73.4
UK +12
when ALA throws
Ryan Coleman-Williams
vs
Jesse Anderson III
X · ALA
CB1 · UK
78.5
70.2
ALA +8
when UK runs
CJ Baxter
vs
Yhonzae Pierre
RB · UK
MLB · ALA
52.0
87.5
ALA +35
over the middle
Willie Rodriguez
vs
Zabien Brown
TE · UK
FS · ALA
51.2
83.7
ALA +32
when UK throws
Nic Anderson
vs
Bray Hubbard
X · UK
CB1 · ALA
45.6
87.6
ALA +42
when ALA runs
Daniel Hill
vs
Lorenzo Cowan
RB · ALA
MLB · UK
64.3
66.0
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Alabama
DBBray Hubbard
87.623/1427
LBYhonzae Pierre
87.513/878
DBKeon Sabb
84.845/1427
DBDijon Lee Jr.
83.956/1427
LBJah-Marien Latham
82.836/878
WRRyan Coleman-Williams
78.526/777

also out — Alabama running back (RB), Ezavier Crowell (RB), RB (RB), another Alabama RB (RB), unknown (RB), Alabama Freshman Cornerback (CB), top recruit (CB), 5-star defensive back (DB) +9 more

Kentucky
DBJesse Anderson III
70.2234/1427
DBTy Bryant
68.1277/1427
LBLorenzo Cowan
66.0199/878
LBSam Greene
65.4207/878
QBKenny Minchey
53.8109/308
RBCJ Baxterprobable
52.0227/514

also out — T. Mizell (RB), Jovantae Barnes (RB)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Alabama
opponent
Kentucky
home+9.8
South Carolina#29
-16.1away
home-0.6
Texas A&M#8
-26.5away
away-0.5
Tennessee#17
-21.3away
away+3.5
LSU#20
-12.3home
away+3.3
Vanderbilt#23
-12.5home

Projected margin

80% between -36 and -1
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKALA +18.495% interval: -42.3 to 5.580% interval: -35.7 to -1-36-1ALA wins 90%UK wins 10%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ALA 39–18 UKUK 14–63 ALA neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesUK 18–60 ALA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUK 21–56 ALA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUK 25–53 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUK 28–49 ALA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUK 32–46 ALA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUK 35–42 ALA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUK 39–39 ALA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 42–35 ALA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 11–60 ALA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUK 14–56 ALA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUK 18–53 ALA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUK 21–49 ALA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUK 25–46 ALA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUK 28–42 ALA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUK 32–39 ALA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUK 35–35 ALA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUK 39–32 ALA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUK 7–56 ALA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 11–53 ALA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 14–49 ALA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUK 18–46 ALA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUK 21–42 ALA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUK 25–39 ALA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUK 28–35 ALA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUK 32–32 ALA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUK 35–28 ALA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUK 4–53 ALA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 7–49 ALA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 11–46 ALA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUK 14–42 ALA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUK 18–39 ALA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUK 21–35 ALA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUK 25–32 ALA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUK 28–28 ALA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUK 32–25 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUK 0–49 ALA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 4–46 ALA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 7–42 ALA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUK 11–39 ALA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUK 14–35 ALA neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUK 18–32 ALA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUK 21–28 ALA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUK 25–25 ALA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUK 28–21 ALA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UK 0–42 ALA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUK 4–39 ALA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUK 7–35 ALA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUK 11–32 ALA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUK 14–28 ALA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUK 18–25 ALA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUK 21–21 ALA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUK 25–18 ALA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)UK 0–35 ALA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUK 4–32 ALA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 7–28 ALA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUK 11–25 ALA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUK 14–21 ALA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUK 18–18 ALA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUK 21–14 ALA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes77706356494235totalALA +49ALA +35ALA +21ALA +7UK +7margin →