AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 11:00 PM
#17Away
Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 71.5
35p
#38Home
Georgia Tech
0-0 · AVR 59.1
27p
TENN 70%30% GT
Spread
TENN -7.8
Total
62
Moneyline
TENN-237GT+237
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TENN advantageevenGT advantage →
TENN throw
TENN QB #86TENN WR #10
TENN +22
TENN run
TENN +51
GT throw
GT protection #23
TENN +15
GT run
GT +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mendoza
Will Reed
vs
Jordan Norman
LT · GT
EDGE · TENN
84.8
82.3
dead even
when TENN throws
Mike Matthews
vs
Jonas Duclona
X · TENN
CB1 · GT
79.8
85.0
GT +5
when GT runs
Justice Haynes
vs
Amare Campbell
RB · GT
MLB · TENN
77.3
77.3
dead even
when TENN runs
DeSean Bishop
vs
Kyle Efford
RB · TENN
MLB · GT
85.8
60.9
TENN +25
when GT throws
Jordan Allen
vs
Ty Redmond
X · GT
CB1 · TENN
64.6
78.0
TENN +13
off the edge· hunting Phillips
Shamurad Umarov
vs
Brayden Manley
LT · TENN
EDGE · GT
81.0
59.3
TENN +22

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tennessee
RBDeSean Bishop
85.85/514
WRMike Matthews
79.821/777
DBTy Redmond
78.0114/1427
DBQua Moss
77.8119/1427
LBAmare Campbell
77.387/878
WRBraylon Staley
75.532/777

also out — Jadais Richard (CB), EDGE Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Tennessee Football Starting Defender (S), Tennessee defensive back (DB), unknown (S), Farooq (S), Tennessee (S) +1 more

Georgia Tech
CBJonas Duclona
85.044/1427
CBJaylen Mbakwe
81.281/1427
RBJustice Haynes
77.331/514
WRJordan Allen
64.686/777
LBKyle Efford
60.9268/878
LBCayman Spaulding
60.1284/878

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTENN +7.895% interval: -31.7 to 16.180% interval: -25.1 to 9.6-25+10TENN wins 70%GT wins 30%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TENN 35–28 GTGT 25–60 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 28–56 TENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGT 32–53 TENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGT 35–49 TENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGT 39–46 TENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGT 42–42 TENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGT 46–39 TENN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGT 49–35 TENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesGT 53–32 TENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesGT 21–56 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 25–53 TENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGT 28–49 TENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesGT 32–46 TENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesGT 35–42 TENN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGT 39–39 TENN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGT 42–35 TENN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesGT 46–32 TENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGT 49–28 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 18–53 TENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGT 21–49 TENN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesGT 25–46 TENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGT 28–42 TENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGT 32–39 TENN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGT 35–35 TENN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesGT 39–32 TENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGT 42–28 TENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesGT 46–25 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 14–49 TENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGT 18–46 TENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGT 21–42 TENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGT 25–39 TENN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesGT 28–35 TENN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesGT 32–32 TENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGT 35–28 TENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGT 39–25 TENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGT 42–21 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 11–46 TENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesGT 14–42 TENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesGT 18–39 TENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesGT 21–35 TENN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesGT 25–32 TENN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesGT 28–28 TENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesGT 32–25 TENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGT 35–21 TENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGT 39–18 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 7–42 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesGT 11–39 TENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesGT 14–35 TENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesGT 18–32 TENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesGT 21–28 TENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesGT 25–25 TENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesGT 28–21 TENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesGT 32–18 TENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGT 35–14 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 4–39 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesGT 7–35 TENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesGT 11–32 TENN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesGT 14–28 TENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesGT 18–25 TENN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesGT 21–21 TENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesGT 25–18 TENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesGT 28–14 TENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesGT 32–11 TENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes84777063564942totalTENN +35TENN +21TENN +7GT +7GT +21margin →