AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:45 PM
#105Away
Kennesaw State
0-0 · AVR 38.1
14p
#17Home
Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 71.5
45p
KENN 2%98% TENN
Spread
TENN -31.0
Total
58
Moneyline
KENN—TENN—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← KENN advantageevenTENN advantage →
KENN throw
TENN +64
KENN run
TENN +65
TENN throw
TENN QB #86TENN WR #10
TENN +21
TENN run
TENN +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TENN runs
DeSean Bishop
vs
Baron Hopson
RB · TENN
MLB · KENN
85.8
76.2
TENN +10
off the edge· hunting Phillips
Shamurad Umarov
vs
Marcus Patterson
LT · TENN
EDGE · KENN
81.0
72.4
TENN +9
when TENN throws
Mike Matthews
vs
Kody Jones
X · TENN
CB1 · KENN
79.8
63.2
TENN +17
when KENN throws
Dylan Gary
vs
Ty Redmond
X · KENN
CB1 · TENN
49.2
78.0
TENN +29
when KENN runs
Jonathan Mathis
vs
Amare Campbell
RB · KENN
MLB · TENN
47.5
77.3
TENN +30
over the middle
Ethan Davis
vs
Alexander Ford
TE · TENN
FS · KENN
66.4
50.6
TENN +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kennesaw State
LBBaron Hopson
76.294/878
LBDonovan Westmoreland
70.5137/878
DBKody Jones
63.2400/1427
DBTony Williams Jr.
60.3475/1427
DBIsaac Paul
57.4551/1427
WRDylan Gary
49.2333/777
Tennessee
RBDeSean Bishop
85.85/514
WRMike Matthews
79.821/777
DBTy Redmond
78.0114/1427
DBQua Moss
77.8119/1427
LBAmare Campbell
77.387/878
WRBraylon Staley
75.532/777

also out — Jadais Richard (CB), EDGE Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Tennessee Football Starting Defender (S), Tennessee defensive back (DB), unknown (S), Farooq (S), Tennessee (S) +1 more

Projected margin

80% between 14 and 48
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTENN +31.095% interval: 7.1 to 54.980% interval: 13.6 to 48.3+14+48KENN wins 2%TENN wins 98%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TENN 42–14 KENNTENN 39–39 KENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 42–35 KENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTENN 46–32 KENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTENN 49–28 KENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTENN 53–25 KENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTENN 56–21 KENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTENN 60–18 KENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTENN 63–14 KENN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTENN 67–11 KENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTENN 35–35 KENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 39–32 KENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTENN 42–28 KENN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 46–25 KENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTENN 49–21 KENN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTENN 53–18 KENN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTENN 56–14 KENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTENN 60–11 KENN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTENN 63–7 KENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTENN 32–32 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 35–28 KENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTENN 39–25 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTENN 42–21 KENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTENN 46–18 KENN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTENN 49–14 KENN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTENN 53–11 KENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTENN 56–7 KENN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 60–4 KENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTENN 28–28 KENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 32–25 KENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTENN 35–21 KENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTENN 39–18 KENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTENN 42–14 KENN neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesTENN 46–11 KENN neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTENN 49–7 KENN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTENN 53–4 KENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTENN 56–0 KENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTENN 25–25 KENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 28–21 KENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTENN 32–18 KENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTENN 35–14 KENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTENN 39–11 KENN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTENN 42–7 KENN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTENN 46–4 KENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTENN 49–0 KENN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TENN 21–21 KENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 25–18 KENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTENN 28–14 KENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTENN 32–11 KENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTENN 35–7 KENN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTENN 39–4 KENN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTENN 42–0 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)TENN 18–18 KENN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTENN 21–14 KENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 25–11 KENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTENN 28–7 KENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTENN 32–4 KENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTENN 35–0 KENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKTENN +14TENN +28TENN +42TENN +56margin →