AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 PM
#67Away
Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 49.8
15p
#8Home
Texas A&M
0-0 · AVR 76.5
41p
UK 3%97% TA&M
Spread
TA&M -26.5
Total
56
Moneyline
UK+2894TA&M-2894
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UK advantageevenTA&M advantage →
UK throw
UK protection #32
TA&M +49
UK run
UK backs #105
TA&M +34
TA&M throw
TA&M WR #1TA&M protection #120
TA&M +26
TA&M run
TA&M line #120TA&M backs #40
UK +24

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Minchey
Coleton Price
vs
Ryan Henderson
LT · UK
EDGE · TA&M
85.1
88.3
TA&M +3
when TA&M throws
Mario Craver
vs
Jesse Anderson III
X · TA&M
CB1 · UK
85.5
70.2
TA&M +15
when TA&M runs
Rueben Owens II
vs
Lorenzo Cowan
RB · TA&M
MLB · UK
74.1
66.0
TA&M +8
when UK runs
CJ Baxter
vs
Daymion Sanford
RB · UK
MLB · TA&M
52.0
82.7
TA&M +31
when UK throws
Nic Anderson
vs
Marcus Ratcliffe
X · UK
CB1 · TA&M
45.6
80.6
TA&M +35
over the middle
Willie Rodriguez
vs
Adam Graham
TE · UK
FS · TA&M
51.2
70.8
TA&M +20

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kentucky
DBJesse Anderson III
70.2234/1427
DBTy Bryant
68.1277/1427
LBLorenzo Cowan
66.0199/878
LBSam Greene
65.4207/878
QBKenny Minchey
53.8109/308
RBCJ Baxterprobable
52.0227/514

also out — T. Mizell (RB), Jovantae Barnes (RB)

Texas A&M
WRMario Craver
85.513/777
LBDaymion Sanford
82.739/878
SMarcus Ratcliffe
80.688/1427
QBMarcel Reed
80.221/308
LBRay Coney
78.869/878
CBRickey Gibson III
78.4108/1427

also out — Target After Missing, Former Texas A&M OL (OL), star safety (S), Chace Sims (DL), DT Sims, McGuire (OL), Myles (WR), Player 1 +3 more

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kentucky
opponent
Texas A&M
away-21.3
Tennessee#17
+7.7home
away-16.1
South Carolina#29
+8.0away
away-22.0
Oklahoma#11
+2.0away
away-17.0
Missouri#24
+7.0away
home-18.4
Alabama#12
+0.6away
home-12.3
LSU#20
+6.7away

Projected margin

80% between 9 and 44
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTA&M +26.595% interval: 2.6 to 50.480% interval: 9.1 to 43.9+9+44UK wins 3%TA&M wins 97%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TA&M 42–14 UKTA&M 39–39 UK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 42–35 UK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTA&M 46–32 UK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTA&M 49–28 UK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTA&M 53–25 UK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTA&M 56–21 UK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 60–18 UK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTA&M 63–14 UK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTA&M 67–11 UK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTA&M 35–35 UK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 39–32 UK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTA&M 42–28 UK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 46–25 UK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTA&M 49–21 UK neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTA&M 53–18 UK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTA&M 56–14 UK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTA&M 60–11 UK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTA&M 63–7 UK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 32–32 UK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 35–28 UK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTA&M 39–25 UK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTA&M 42–21 UK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTA&M 46–18 UK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTA&M 49–14 UK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTA&M 53–11 UK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 56–7 UK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTA&M 60–4 UK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 28–28 UK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTA&M 32–25 UK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTA&M 35–21 UK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTA&M 39–18 UK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTA&M 42–14 UK neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesTA&M 46–11 UK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTA&M 49–7 UK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 53–4 UK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTA&M 56–0 UK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 25–25 UK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 28–21 UK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTA&M 32–18 UK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTA&M 35–14 UK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTA&M 39–11 UK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTA&M 42–7 UK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTA&M 46–4 UK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 49–0 UK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)TA&M 21–21 UK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 25–18 UK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTA&M 28–14 UK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 32–11 UK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTA&M 35–7 UK neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTA&M 39–4 UK neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTA&M 42–0 UK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)TA&M 18–18 UK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 21–14 UK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTA&M 25–11 UK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTA&M 28–7 UK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTA&M 32–4 UK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTA&M 35–0 UK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKTA&M +14TA&M +28TA&M +42TA&M +56margin →