CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
UK 6.1%93.9% TA&M
Projected margin
TA&M by 22.7
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
TA&M 3 to TA&M 42
Win probability
TA&M 93.9%
FinalUK 31 · TA&M 21model had +22.7, off by 32.7

Current team profiles

Kentucky
Texas A&M

When Kentucky has the ball

Passing

TA&M defense
Higher-ranked profile
UK offense
#66
TA&M defense
#55
EPA comparison
0.24
#66
0.10
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

UK offense
Higher-ranked profile
UK offense
#35
TA&M defense
#37
EPA comparison
0.19
#35
-0.03
#37
Rush EPA

Drive success

UK offense
Higher-ranked profile
UK offense
#20
TA&M defense
#44
Success rates
50%
#20
37%
#44
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#43
0.00
#39
EPA / play
1.15
#106
1.28
#96
Explosiveness
13%
#39
17%
#43
Havoc

When Texas A&M has the ball

Passing

UK defense
Higher-ranked profile
UK defense
#60
TA&M offense
#125
EPA comparison
0.11
#60
-0.01
#125
Pass EPA

Rushing

TA&M offense
Higher-ranked profile
UK defense
#81
TA&M offense
#70
EPA comparison
0.06
#81
0.11
#70
Rush EPA

Drive success

TA&M offense
Higher-ranked profile
UK defense
#109
TA&M offense
#91
Success rates
44%
#109
42%
#91
Success rate
More metrics
0.04
#56
0.04
#109
EPA / play
1.17
#44
1.08
#130
Explosiveness
18%
#36
15%
#77
Havoc

Current key players

Kentucky
QBKenny Minchey
1148 yds · 11 TD · 1 INT
63.0239/729
RBJason Patterson
355 yds · 3 TD · 7.9 YPC
86.228/1044
WRKenny Darby
25 rec · 322 yds · 3 TD
81.147/2069
TEElijah Brown
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
66.8
Run blocking
78.1
Penalties
0
80.524/1017
LBAntwan Smith
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.9
Coverage
64.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
73.9220/1796
LBSam Greene
17 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.3
Coverage
66.7
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
68
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
2
73.6234/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Tovani Mizell · RBout · 2026-08-22

    Mizell is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Lincoln Watkins · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against Sooners on Saturday, October

Texas A&M
QBMarcel Reed
908 yds · 6 TD · 4 INT
59.6301/729
RBKJ Edwards
181 yds · 2 TD · 6.5 YPC
89.910/1044
TEKiotti Armstrong
2 rec · 62 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
71.7
Run blocking
70.0
Penalties
1
82.020/1017
LBTamarion Watkins
7 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.2
Coverage
65.7
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
5
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
77.4129/1796
WRMario Craver
23 rec · 235 yds · 2 TD
73.9150/2069
LBDaymion Sanford
13 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.8
Coverage
63.5
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
3
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
71.1326/1796
Availability reports · 4
  • Terry Bussey · WRout · 2026-09-21

    Bussey is tending to an undisclosed injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Tiger Riden Jr. · RBout · 2026-08-27

    Riden Jr. has suffered an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Madden Williams · WRout · 2026-09-06

    Williams has been out of commission due to an undisclosed injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Blake Ivy · OGQues. · 2026-10-10

    Ivy is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will play against Citadel on Saturday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UK
TA&M
vs
Offense
63.0
#126 of 138
QB
59.6
#134 of 138
81.1
#30 of 138
RB
80.2
#36 of 138
70.6
#75 of 138
WR
67.6
#114 of 138
80.5
#24 of 138
TE
82.0
#20 of 138
74.5
#20 of 138
OL
71.7
#42 of 138
Defense
71.6
#90 of 138
DL
80.7
#13 of 138
71.1
#95 of 138
LB
72.8
#80 of 138
70.3
#92 of 138
DB
66.8
#128 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Kentucky
opponent
Texas A&M
H+1.0
LSU#11
-29.0A
A-15.5
TENN#21
+1.2H
H-28.0
ALA#3
-11.9A
A-12.0
OU#19
-0.6A
A-11.9
MIZ#15
-21.0A
A+1.0
SC#38
+5.4A