AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#29Away
South Carolina
0-0 · AVR 63.4
21p
#12Home
Alabama
0-0 · AVR 74.0
31p
SC 25%75% ALA
Spread
ALA -9.8
Total
52
Moneyline
SC+299ALA-299
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SC advantageevenALA advantage →
SC throw
ALA pass rush #67
ALA +13
SC run
ALA +39
ALA throw
ALA QB #85ALA WR #15
SC +8
ALA run
SC +15

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ALA throws
Ryan Coleman-Williams
vs
Vicari Swain
X · ALA
CB1 · SC
78.5
71.7
ALA +7
when SC throws
Nyck Harbor
vs
Bray Hubbard
X · SC
CB1 · ALA
61.5
87.6
ALA +26
when ALA runs
Daniel Hill
vs
Fred Johnson
RB · ALA
MLB · SC
64.3
78.4
SC +14
when SC runs
Christian Clark
vs
Yhonzae Pierre
RB · SC
MLB · ALA
53.4
87.5
ALA +34
over the middle
Mike Tyler
vs
Zabien Brown
TE · SC
FS · ALA
42.0
83.7
ALA +42
over the middle
Kaleb Edwards
vs
Gerald Kilgore
TE · ALA
FS · SC
59.1
62.1
SC +3

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
South Carolina
LBFred Johnson
78.473/878
LBJustin Okoronkwo
72.1123/878
DBVicari Swain
71.7197/1427
QBLaNorris Sellers
67.648/308
DBPeyton Williams
67.0308/1427
DBJalewis Solomon
62.1423/1427

also out — unknown (WR), J. Gibson (WR), J. Sellers (WR), Dylan Stewart (EDGE), Jacarrius Peak (OL)

Alabama
DBBray Hubbard
87.623/1427
LBYhonzae Pierre
87.513/878
DBKeon Sabb
84.845/1427
DBDijon Lee Jr.
83.956/1427
LBJah-Marien Latham
82.836/878
WRRyan Coleman-Williams
78.526/777

also out — Alabama running back (RB), Ezavier Crowell (RB), RB (RB), another Alabama RB (RB), unknown (RB), Alabama Freshman Cornerback (CB), top recruit (CB), 5-star defensive back (DB) +9 more

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
South Carolina
opponent
Alabama
home-8.0
Texas A&M#8
-0.6home
home-12.9
Georgia#3
-5.6home
home+9.0
Mississippi State#45
+11.3away
home-2.8
Tennessee#17
-0.5away
home+16.1
Kentucky#67
+18.4away

Projected margin

80% between -8 and 27
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKALA +9.895% interval: -14.1 to 33.780% interval: -7.6 to 27.2-8+27SC wins 25%ALA wins 75%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ALA 28–21 SCALA 25–46 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesALA 28–42 SC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 32–39 SC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesALA 35–35 SC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesALA 39–32 SC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesALA 42–28 SC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesALA 46–25 SC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesALA 49–21 SC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesALA 53–18 SC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 21–42 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesALA 25–39 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesALA 28–35 SC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesALA 32–32 SC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesALA 35–28 SC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesALA 39–25 SC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesALA 42–21 SC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesALA 46–18 SC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesALA 49–14 SC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesALA 18–39 SC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesALA 21–35 SC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesALA 25–32 SC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesALA 28–28 SC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesALA 32–25 SC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesALA 35–21 SC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesALA 39–18 SC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesALA 42–14 SC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesALA 46–11 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesALA 14–35 SC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesALA 18–32 SC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesALA 21–28 SC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesALA 25–25 SC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesALA 28–21 SC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesALA 32–18 SC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesALA 35–14 SC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesALA 39–11 SC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesALA 42–7 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesALA 11–32 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesALA 14–28 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesALA 18–25 SC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesALA 21–21 SC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesALA 25–18 SC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesALA 28–14 SC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesALA 32–11 SC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesALA 35–7 SC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesALA 39–4 SC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesALA 7–28 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesALA 11–25 SC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesALA 14–21 SC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesALA 18–18 SC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesALA 21–14 SC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesALA 25–11 SC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesALA 28–7 SC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesALA 32–4 SC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesALA 35–0 SC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 4–25 SC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesALA 7–21 SC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 11–18 SC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesALA 14–14 SC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesALA 18–11 SC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesALA 21–7 SC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesALA 25–4 SC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesALA 28–0 SC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalSC +21SC +7ALA +7ALA +21ALA +35margin →