AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 4:00 AM
#11Away
Oklahoma
0-0 · AVR 74.3
20p
#3Home
Georgia
0-0 · AVR 80.0
32p
OU 21%79% UGA
Spread
UGA -12.0
Total
51
Moneyline
OU+380UGA-380
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OU advantageevenUGA advantage →
OU throw
UGA pass rush #88
OU +12
OU run
UGA front #88UGA linebackers #4
UGA +5
UGA throw
OU +19
UGA run
OU +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UGA runs
Nate Frazier
vs
Kip Lewis
RB · UGA
MLB · OU
81.1
92.3
OU +11
off the edge· hunting Stockton
Drew Bobo
vs
Taylor Wein
LT · UGA
EDGE · OU
63.4
96.5
OU +33
when OU throws
Parker Livingstone
vs
KJ Bolden
X · OU
CB1 · UGA
71.1
81.2
UGA +10
when UGA throws
Isiah Canion
vs
Peyton Bowen
X · UGA
CB1 · OU
63.4
86.1
OU +23
when OU runs
Lloyd Avant
vs
Chris Cole
RB · OU
MLB · UGA
62.3
85.5
UGA +23
off the edge· hunting Mateer
Caleb Nitta
vs
Elijah Griffin
LT · OU
EDGE · UGA
74.3
64.1
OU +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oklahoma
LBKip Lewis
92.36/878
LBOwen Heinecke
91.78/878
DBPeyton Bowen
86.134/1427
DBEli Bowenprobable
83.063/1427
DBCourtland Guillory
82.468/1427
QBJohn Mateerprobable
71.835/308

also out — Michael Fasusi, Jaren Kanak (TE), Oklahoma OL (OL), Maikkula (C), Jake Maikkula (OL)

Georgia
LBChris Cole
85.521/878
LBRaylen Wilson
84.324/878
QBGunner Stockton
81.718/308
DBKJ Bolden
81.280/1427
RBNate Frazier
81.119/514
SKhalil Barnes
74.0164/1427

also out — unknown, Dante Dowdell (RB), Kirby Smart (RB), AJC.com (DB), Former Georgia Bulldogs OL (OL), Drew Bobo (C), Carter Loflin (OL)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Oklahoma
opponent
Georgia
away+2.5
Missouri#24
+16.9home
away+2.6
Florida#25
+14.6neutral
home+2.3
Ole Miss#14
+6.8away
home+8.5
South Carolina#29
+12.9away

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 29
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUGA +12.095% interval: -11.9 to 35.980% interval: -5.4 to 29.4-5+29OU wins 21%UGA wins 79%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UGA 32–18 OUUGA 28–42 OU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 32–39 OU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUGA 35–35 OU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 39–32 OU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUGA 42–28 OU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUGA 46–25 OU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUGA 49–21 OU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUGA 53–18 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 56–14 OU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 25–39 OU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 28–35 OU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUGA 32–32 OU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUGA 35–28 OU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 39–25 OU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUGA 42–21 OU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUGA 46–18 OU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUGA 49–14 OU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUGA 53–11 OU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 21–35 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 25–32 OU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUGA 28–28 OU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUGA 32–25 OU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUGA 35–21 OU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUGA 39–18 OU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 42–14 OU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUGA 46–11 OU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUGA 49–7 OU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 18–32 OU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 21–28 OU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUGA 25–25 OU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUGA 28–21 OU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUGA 32–18 OU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUGA 35–14 OU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 39–11 OU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUGA 42–7 OU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUGA 46–4 OU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 14–28 OU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 18–25 OU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUGA 21–21 OU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 25–18 OU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUGA 28–14 OU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 32–11 OU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUGA 35–7 OU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 39–4 OU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUGA 42–0 OU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 11–25 OU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 14–21 OU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUGA 18–18 OU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUGA 21–14 OU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUGA 25–11 OU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUGA 28–7 OU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 32–4 OU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUGA 35–0 OU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UGA 7–21 OU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 11–18 OU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUGA 14–14 OU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUGA 18–11 OU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUGA 21–7 OU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUGA 25–4 OU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 28–0 OU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalOU +14PKUGA +14UGA +28UGA +42margin →