CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
OU 32.5%67.5% UGA
Projected margin
UGA by 7.0
Projected total
45
80% outcome range
OU 11 to UGA 27
Win probability
UGA 67.5%
FinalOU 13 · UGA 41model had +7.0, off by 21.0

Current team profiles

Oklahoma
Georgia

When Oklahoma has the ball

Passing

UGA defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU offense
#55
UGA defense
#49
EPA comparison
0.27
#55
0.08
#49
Pass EPA

Rushing

UGA defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU offense
#138
UGA defense
#5
EPA comparison
-0.24
#138
-0.22
#5
Rush EPA

Drive success

UGA defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU offense
#119
UGA defense
#27
Success rates
38%
#119
35%
#27
Success rate
More metrics
-0.04
#129
-0.05
#25
EPA / play
1.06
#132
1.23
#76
Explosiveness
17%
#114
19%
#24
Havoc

When Georgia has the ball

Passing

UGA offense
Higher-ranked profile
OU defense
#12
UGA offense
#3
EPA comparison
-0.07
#12
0.62
#3
Pass EPA

Rushing

UGA offense
Higher-ranked profile
OU defense
#26
UGA offense
#12
EPA comparison
-0.08
#26
0.26
#12
Rush EPA

Drive success

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
OU defense
#2
UGA offense
#6
Success rates
32%
#2
52%
#6
Success rate
More metrics
-0.16
#3
0.40
#3
EPA / play
1.27
#89
1.28
#38
Explosiveness
21%
#14
12%
#24
Havoc

Current key players

Oklahoma
QBWhitt Newbauer
6 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
65.3214/729
DBPeyton Bowen
17 tkl · 4 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
81.1
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
84.925/2969
LBDane Bathurst
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.9
Coverage
63.9
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.560/1796
TETrynae Washington
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.4
Run blocking
81.4
Penalties
0
79.229/1017
WRIsaiah Sategna III
20 rec · 267 yds · 2 TD
75.7115/2069
DBEli Bowen
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
89.3
Coverage
64.2
Targets allowed
21
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
124
Passer rating allowed
58.4
Missed tackles
1
70.5412/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Trell Harris · WRout · 2026-09-15

    Harris sustained a back injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Jer'Michael Carter · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Carter is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jack Van Dorselaer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Dorselaer is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

Georgia
QBGunner Stockton
1049 yds · 13 TD · 1 INT
92.53/729
RBDwight Phillips Jr.
160 yds · 1 TD · 8.0 YPC
90.66/1044
TEElyiss Williams
6 rec · 71 yds · 2 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
74.3
Run blocking
78.3
Penalties
0
88.94/1017
LBChris Cole
22 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 1.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
90.6
Coverage
67.1
Pressures
12
Pass-rush snaps
59
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
88.517/1796
DBKJ Bolden
15 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
80.3
Coverage
82.5
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
94
Passer rating allowed
83.1
Missed tackles
2
84.229/2969
WRLandon Roldan
4 rec · 80 yds · 1 TD
83.927/2069
Availability reports · 3
  • Dante Dowdell · RBout · 2026-09-05

    Dowdell has been sidelined due an undisclosed injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Isiah Canion · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Conan is dealing with a leg injury, and it is unclear if he will face Tigers on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Thomas Blackshear · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Blackshear is dealing with a upper-body injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against the Tigers on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

OU
UGA
vs
Offense
65.3
#119 of 138
QB
92.5
#4 of 138
67.2
#134 of 138
RB
90.5
#2 of 138
68.7
#99 of 138
WR
82.8
#4 of 138
79.2
#27 of 138
TE
88.9
#4 of 138
73.3
#25 of 138
OL
75.5
#15 of 138
Defense
77.6
#30 of 138
DL
78.6
#20 of 138
73.7
#74 of 138
LB
81.2
#15 of 138
71.9
#72 of 138
DB
78.9
#5 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Oklahoma
opponent
Georgia
A-2.5
MIZ#15
+12.1H
A+0.6
FLA#22
+12.6N
H+8.6
SC#38
+12.6A
H+2.9
MISS#14
+6.9A