AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#40Away
Arkansas
0-0 · AVR 58.2
21p
#8Home
Texas A&M
0-0 · AVR 76.5
40p
ARK 9%91% TA&M
Spread
TA&M -19.0
Total
61
Moneyline
ARK+978TA&M-978
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARK advantageevenTA&M advantage →
ARK throw
TA&M +31
ARK run
TA&M +30
TA&M throw
TA&M WR #1TA&M protection #120
TA&M +14
TA&M run
TA&M line #120TA&M backs #40
ARK +18

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TA&M throws
Mario Craver
vs
Joker Johnson
X · TA&M
CB1 · ARK
85.5
70.0
TA&M +16
when ARK runs
Sutton Smith
vs
Daymion Sanford
RB · ARK
MLB · TA&M
68.8
82.7
TA&M +14
when TA&M runs
Rueben Owens II
vs
Ben Bogle
RB · TA&M
MLB · ARK
74.1
77.0
dead even
over the middle
Jaden Platt
vs
Adam Graham
TE · ARK
FS · TA&M
78.6
70.8
ARK +8
when ARK throws
Jamari Hawkins
vs
Marcus Ratcliffe
X · ARK
CB1 · TA&M
56.7
80.6
TA&M +24
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Bryant Williams
vs
Ryan Henderson
LT · ARK
EDGE · TA&M
45.4
88.3
TA&M +43

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arkansas
TEJaden Platt
78.63/287
LBBen Bogle
77.088/878
DBJoker Johnson
70.0239/1427
RBSutton Smith
68.861/514
DBLa'khi Roland
64.9358/1427
DBChristian Harrison
60.9459/1427

also out — M. Lassiter (TE)

Texas A&M
WRMario Craver
85.513/777
LBDaymion Sanford
82.739/878
SMarcus Ratcliffe
80.688/1427
QBMarcel Reed
80.221/308
LBRay Coney
78.869/878
CBRickey Gibson III
78.4108/1427

also out — Target After Missing, Former Texas A&M OL (OL), star safety (S), Chace Sims (DL), DT Sims, McGuire (OL), Myles (WR), Player 1 +3 more

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arkansas
opponent
Texas A&M
away-18.0
Texas#9
+3.5home
home-8.8
Tennessee#17
+7.7home
home-4.5
Missouri#24
+7.0away
home-3.5
South Carolina#29
+8.0away
home-4.8
LSU#20
+6.7away

Projected margin

80% between 2 and 36
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTA&M +19.095% interval: -4.9 to 42.980% interval: 1.6 to 36.4+2+36ARK wins 9%TA&M wins 91%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TA&M 42–21 ARKTA&M 39–46 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 42–42 ARK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTA&M 46–39 ARK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTA&M 49–35 ARK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 53–32 ARK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTA&M 56–28 ARK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTA&M 60–25 ARK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTA&M 63–21 ARK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 67–18 ARK neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTA&M 35–42 ARK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 39–39 ARK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTA&M 42–35 ARK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 46–32 ARK neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTA&M 49–28 ARK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTA&M 53–25 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTA&M 56–21 ARK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTA&M 60–18 ARK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 63–14 ARK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTA&M 32–39 ARK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 35–35 ARK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTA&M 39–32 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTA&M 42–28 ARK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTA&M 46–25 ARK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTA&M 49–21 ARK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTA&M 53–18 ARK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTA&M 56–14 ARK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTA&M 60–11 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 28–35 ARK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTA&M 32–32 ARK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTA&M 35–28 ARK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTA&M 39–25 ARK neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTA&M 42–21 ARK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTA&M 46–18 ARK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTA&M 49–14 ARK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 53–11 ARK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTA&M 56–7 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 25–32 ARK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTA&M 28–28 ARK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTA&M 32–25 ARK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTA&M 35–21 ARK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTA&M 39–18 ARK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTA&M 42–14 ARK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTA&M 46–11 ARK neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTA&M 49–7 ARK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTA&M 53–4 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 21–28 ARK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTA&M 25–25 ARK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTA&M 28–21 ARK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTA&M 32–18 ARK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTA&M 35–14 ARK neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTA&M 39–11 ARK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTA&M 42–7 ARK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTA&M 46–4 ARK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTA&M 49–0 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTA&M 18–25 ARK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTA&M 21–21 ARK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTA&M 25–18 ARK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTA&M 28–14 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTA&M 32–11 ARK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTA&M 35–7 ARK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTA&M 39–4 ARK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTA&M 42–0 ARK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)84777063564942totalARK +7TA&M +7TA&M +21TA&M +35TA&M +49margin →