AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#3Away
Georgia
0-0 · AVR 80.0
30p
#12Home
Alabama
0-0 · AVR 74.0
25p
UGA 65%35% ALA
Spread
UGA -5.6
Total
55
Moneyline
UGA-184ALA+184
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UGA advantageevenALA advantage →
UGA throw
ALA pass rush #67
even
UGA run
UGA +6
ALA throw
ALA QB #85ALA WR #15
even
ALA run
UGA front #88UGA linebackers #4
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UGA runs
Nate Frazier
vs
Yhonzae Pierre
RB · UGA
MLB · ALA
81.1
87.5
ALA +6
when ALA throws
Ryan Coleman-Williams
vs
KJ Bolden
X · ALA
CB1 · UGA
78.5
81.2
dead even
when UGA throws
Isiah Canion
vs
Bray Hubbard
X · UGA
CB1 · ALA
63.4
87.6
ALA +24
when ALA runs
Daniel Hill
vs
Chris Cole
RB · ALA
MLB · UGA
64.3
85.5
UGA +21
over the middle
Elyiss Williams
vs
Zabien Brown
TE · UGA
FS · ALA
62.4
83.7
ALA +21
off the edge· hunting Stockton
Drew Bobo
vs
Jeremiah Beaman
LT · UGA
EDGE · ALA
63.4
73.4
ALA +10

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Georgia
LBChris Cole
85.521/878
LBRaylen Wilson
84.324/878
QBGunner Stockton
81.718/308
DBKJ Bolden
81.280/1427
RBNate Frazier
81.119/514
SKhalil Barnes
74.0164/1427

also out — unknown, Dante Dowdell (RB), Kirby Smart (RB), AJC.com (DB), Former Georgia Bulldogs OL (OL), Drew Bobo (C), Carter Loflin (OL)

Alabama
DBBray Hubbard
87.623/1427
LBYhonzae Pierre
87.513/878
DBKeon Sabb
84.845/1427
DBDijon Lee Jr.
83.956/1427
LBJah-Marien Latham
82.836/878
WRRyan Coleman-Williams
78.526/777

also out — Alabama running back (RB), Ezavier Crowell (RB), RB (RB), another Alabama RB (RB), unknown (RB), Alabama Freshman Cornerback (CB), top recruit (CB), 5-star defensive back (DB) +9 more

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Georgia
opponent
Alabama
home+16.4
Vanderbilt#23
+3.3away
home+20.8
Auburn#31
+12.7home
away+12.9
South Carolina#29
+9.8home

Projected margin

80% between -23 and 12
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUGA +5.695% interval: -29.5 to 18.380% interval: -23 to 11.8-23+12UGA wins 65%ALA wins 35%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UGA 32–25 ALAALA 21–56 UGA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesALA 25–53 UGA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesALA 28–49 UGA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesALA 32–46 UGA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesALA 35–42 UGA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesALA 39–39 UGA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesALA 42–35 UGA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesALA 46–32 UGA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesALA 49–28 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesALA 18–53 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesALA 21–49 UGA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesALA 25–46 UGA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesALA 28–42 UGA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesALA 32–39 UGA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesALA 35–35 UGA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesALA 39–32 UGA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesALA 42–28 UGA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesALA 46–25 UGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 14–49 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesALA 18–46 UGA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesALA 21–42 UGA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesALA 25–39 UGA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesALA 28–35 UGA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesALA 32–32 UGA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesALA 35–28 UGA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesALA 39–25 UGA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesALA 42–21 UGA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 11–46 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesALA 14–42 UGA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesALA 18–39 UGA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesALA 21–35 UGA neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesALA 25–32 UGA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesALA 28–28 UGA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesALA 32–25 UGA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesALA 35–21 UGA neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesALA 39–18 UGA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 7–42 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesALA 11–39 UGA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesALA 14–35 UGA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesALA 18–32 UGA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesALA 21–28 UGA neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesALA 25–25 UGA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesALA 28–21 UGA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesALA 32–18 UGA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesALA 35–14 UGA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesALA 4–39 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesALA 7–35 UGA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesALA 11–32 UGA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesALA 14–28 UGA neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesALA 18–25 UGA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesALA 21–21 UGA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesALA 25–18 UGA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesALA 28–14 UGA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesALA 32–11 UGA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesALA 0–35 UGA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesALA 4–32 UGA neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesALA 7–28 UGA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesALA 11–25 UGA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesALA 14–21 UGA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesALA 18–18 UGA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesALA 21–14 UGA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesALA 25–11 UGA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesALA 28–7 UGA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalUGA +35UGA +21UGA +7ALA +7ALA +21margin →