AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#17Away
Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 71.5
37p
#40Home
Arkansas
0-0 · AVR 58.2
28p
TENN 73%27% ARK
Spread
TENN -8.8
Total
66
Moneyline
TENN-266ARK+266
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TENN advantageevenARK advantage →
TENN throw
TENN QB #86TENN WR #10
TENN +8
TENN run
ARK linebackers #107
TENN +36
ARK throw
TENN +19
ARK run
TENN +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Phillips
Shamurad Umarov
vs
Steven Soles Jr.
LT · TENN
EDGE · ARK
81.0
85.2
ARK +4
when TENN runs
DeSean Bishop
vs
Ben Bogle
RB · TENN
MLB · ARK
85.8
77.0
TENN +9
when TENN throws
Mike Matthews
vs
Joker Johnson
X · TENN
CB1 · ARK
79.8
70.0
TENN +10
over the middle
Jaden Platt
vs
Dejuan Lane
TE · ARK
FS · TENN
78.6
67.8
ARK +11
when ARK runs
Sutton Smith
vs
Amare Campbell
RB · ARK
MLB · TENN
68.8
77.3
TENN +8
when ARK throws
Jamari Hawkins
vs
Ty Redmond
X · ARK
CB1 · TENN
56.7
78.0
TENN +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tennessee
RBDeSean Bishop
85.85/514
WRMike Matthews
79.821/777
DBTy Redmond
78.0114/1427
DBQua Moss
77.8119/1427
LBAmare Campbell
77.387/878
WRBraylon Staley
75.532/777

also out — Jadais Richard (CB), EDGE Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Tennessee Football Starting Defender (S), Tennessee defensive back (DB), unknown (S), Farooq (S), Tennessee (S) +1 more

Arkansas
TEJaden Platt
78.63/287
LBBen Bogle
77.088/878
DBJoker Johnson
70.0239/1427
RBSutton Smith
68.861/514
DBLa'khi Roland
64.9358/1427
DBChristian Harrison
60.9459/1427

also out — M. Lassiter (TE)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Tennessee
opponent
Arkansas
home-1.7
Texas#9
-18.0away
home+10.7
Auburn#31
-5.6away
away-7.7
Texas A&M#8
-19.0away
home+6.5
LSU#20
-4.8home
away+1.3
Vanderbilt#23
-10.0away
away+2.8
South Carolina#29
-3.5home

Projected margin

80% between -26 and 9
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTENN +8.895% interval: -32.7 to 15.180% interval: -26.2 to 8.6-26+9TENN wins 73%ARK wins 27%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TENN 35–28 ARKARK 25–60 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARK 28–56 TENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARK 32–53 TENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARK 35–49 TENN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARK 39–46 TENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARK 42–42 TENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARK 46–39 TENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARK 49–35 TENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 53–32 TENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 21–56 TENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARK 25–53 TENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARK 28–49 TENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesARK 32–46 TENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARK 35–42 TENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARK 39–39 TENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARK 42–35 TENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARK 46–32 TENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARK 49–28 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 18–53 TENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 21–49 TENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 25–46 TENN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARK 28–42 TENN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARK 32–39 TENN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARK 35–35 TENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARK 39–32 TENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 42–28 TENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARK 46–25 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 14–49 TENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARK 18–46 TENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 21–42 TENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARK 25–39 TENN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARK 28–35 TENN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARK 32–32 TENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARK 35–28 TENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARK 39–25 TENN neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesARK 42–21 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 11–46 TENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARK 14–42 TENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesARK 18–39 TENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARK 21–35 TENN neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARK 25–32 TENN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARK 28–28 TENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARK 32–25 TENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARK 35–21 TENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARK 39–18 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 7–42 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARK 11–39 TENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARK 14–35 TENN neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARK 18–32 TENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesARK 21–28 TENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARK 25–25 TENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARK 28–21 TENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 32–18 TENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARK 35–14 TENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARK 4–39 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARK 7–35 TENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARK 11–32 TENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARK 14–28 TENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesARK 18–25 TENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARK 21–21 TENN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesARK 25–18 TENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARK 28–14 TENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARK 32–11 TENN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes84777063564942totalTENN +35TENN +21TENN +7ARK +7ARK +21margin →