AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#29Away
South Carolina
0-0 · AVR 63.4
23p
#25Home
Florida
0-0 · AVR 66.3
26p
SC 41%59% FLA
Spread
FLA -3.3
Total
49
Moneyline
SC+144FLA-144
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SC advantageevenFLA advantage →
SC throw
even
SC run
FLA +54
FLA throw
FLA QB #101FLA WR #33
SC +19
FLA run
FLA +10

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when FLA runs
Jadan Baugh
vs
Fred Johnson
RB · FLA
MLB · SC
80.9
78.4
dead even
when FLA throws
Vernell Brown III
vs
Vicari Swain
X · FLA
CB1 · SC
71.4
71.7
dead even
when SC runs
Christian Clark
vs
Myles Graham
RB · SC
MLB · FLA
53.4
86.1
FLA +33
over the middle
Lacota Dippre
vs
Gerald Kilgore
TE · FLA
FS · SC
73.7
62.1
FLA +12
when SC throws
Nyck Harbor
vs
Bryce Thornton
X · SC
CB1 · FLA
61.5
72.0
FLA +10
over the middle
Mike Tyler
vs
Javion Toombs
TE · SC
FS · FLA
42.0
61.0
FLA +19

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
South Carolina
LBFred Johnson
78.473/878
LBJustin Okoronkwo
72.1123/878
DBVicari Swain
71.7197/1427
QBLaNorris Sellers
67.648/308
DBPeyton Williams
67.0308/1427
DBJalewis Solomon
62.1423/1427

also out — unknown (WR), J. Gibson (WR), J. Sellers (WR), Dylan Stewart (EDGE), Jacarrius Peak (OL)

Florida
LBMyles Graham
86.118/878
LBJayden Woods
82.837/878
RBJadan Baugh
80.921/514
TELacota Dippre
73.75/287
SBryce Thornton
72.0189/1427
WRVernell Brown III
71.445/777

also out — Graham Mertz

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
South Carolina
opponent
Florida
away-8.5
Oklahoma#11
-2.6home
home+16.1
Kentucky#67
+11.9away
home-12.9
Georgia#3
-14.6neutral

Projected margin

80% between -14 and 21
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKFLA +3.395% interval: -20.6 to 27.280% interval: -14.1 to 20.7-14+21SC wins 41%FLA wins 59%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ FLA 25–25 SCFLA 21–49 SC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesFLA 25–46 SC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFLA 28–42 SC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFLA 32–39 SC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFLA 35–35 SC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFLA 39–32 SC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFLA 42–28 SC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFLA 46–25 SC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesFLA 49–21 SC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesFLA 18–46 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFLA 21–42 SC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 25–39 SC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFLA 28–35 SC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFLA 32–32 SC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFLA 35–28 SC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFLA 39–25 SC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFLA 42–21 SC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFLA 46–18 SC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 14–42 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFLA 18–39 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFLA 21–35 SC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFLA 25–32 SC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFLA 28–28 SC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFLA 32–25 SC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFLA 35–21 SC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFLA 39–18 SC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFLA 42–14 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFLA 11–39 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFLA 14–35 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFLA 18–32 SC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFLA 21–28 SC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFLA 25–25 SC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFLA 28–21 SC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesFLA 32–18 SC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesFLA 35–14 SC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFLA 39–11 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFLA 7–35 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFLA 11–32 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFLA 14–28 SC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesFLA 18–25 SC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFLA 21–21 SC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFLA 25–18 SC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesFLA 28–14 SC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesFLA 32–11 SC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesFLA 35–7 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesFLA 4–32 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesFLA 7–28 SC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 11–25 SC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesFLA 14–21 SC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFLA 18–18 SC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFLA 21–14 SC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesFLA 25–11 SC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFLA 28–7 SC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesFLA 32–4 SC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesFLA 0–28 SC neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesFLA 4–25 SC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesFLA 7–21 SC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFLA 11–18 SC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFLA 14–14 SC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesFLA 18–11 SC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesFLA 21–7 SC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesFLA 25–4 SC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesFLA 28–0 SC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomes70635649423528totalSC +28SC +14PKFLA +14FLA +28margin →