AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 6 · Sat Oct 10 · 4:00 AM
#20Away
LSU
0-0 · AVR 68.3
32p
#67Home
Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 49.8
19p
LSU 80%20% UK
Spread
LSU -12.3
Total
51
Moneyline
LSU-404UK+404
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← LSU advantageevenUK advantage →
LSU throw
LSU WR #5LSU protection #111
LSU +16
LSU run
LSU line #111LSU backs #60
UK +27
UK throw
UK protection #32
LSU +54
UK run
UK backs #105
LSU +23

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Minchey
Coleton Price
vs
Princewill Umanmielen
LT · UK
EDGE · LSU
85.1
99.9
LSU +15
when LSU throws
Tre' Brown
vs
Jesse Anderson III
X · LSU
CB1 · UK
86.3
70.2
LSU +16
when UK throws
Nic Anderson
vs
DJ Pickett
X · UK
CB1 · LSU
45.6
93.7
LSU +48
over the middle
Willie Rodriguez
vs
Ty Benefield
TE · UK
FS · LSU
51.2
79.0
LSU +28
when LSU runs
Caden Durham
vs
Lorenzo Cowan
RB · LSU
MLB · UK
61.0
66.0
UK +5
when UK runs
CJ Baxter
vs
TJ Dottery
RB · UK
MLB · LSU
52.0
69.2
LSU +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
LSU
CBDJ Pickettprobable
93.75/1427
CBPJ Woodland
88.818/1427
SDashawn Spears
87.324/1427
WRTre' Brown
86.311/777
WRWinston Watkins Jr.
71.444/777
LBTJ Dottery
69.2159/878

also out — projected offensive starter, Jamal Adams (CB), Former LSU football star, Decision Means Losing, Daniels Finally Speaks, Malik Nabers (WR)

Kentucky
DBJesse Anderson III
70.2234/1427
DBTy Bryant
68.1277/1427
LBLorenzo Cowan
66.0199/878
LBSam Greene
65.4207/878
QBKenny Minchey
53.8109/308
RBCJ Baxterprobable
52.0227/514

also out — T. Mizell (RB), Jovantae Barnes (RB)

Common opponents

3 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
LSU
opponent
Kentucky
home-6.7
Texas A&M#8
-26.5away
home-3.5
Alabama#12
-18.4home
away-6.5
Tennessee#17
-21.3away

Projected margin

80% between -30 and 5
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKLSU +12.395% interval: -36.2 to 11.680% interval: -29.7 to 5.1-30+5LSU wins 80%UK wins 20%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ LSU 32–18 UKUK 14–56 LSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUK 18–53 LSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUK 21–49 LSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUK 25–46 LSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUK 28–42 LSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUK 32–39 LSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUK 35–35 LSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUK 39–32 LSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUK 42–28 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUK 11–53 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 14–49 LSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 18–46 LSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUK 21–42 LSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUK 25–39 LSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUK 28–35 LSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUK 32–32 LSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUK 35–28 LSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUK 39–25 LSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUK 7–49 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 11–46 LSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUK 14–42 LSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 18–39 LSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUK 21–35 LSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUK 25–32 LSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUK 28–28 LSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUK 32–25 LSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUK 35–21 LSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUK 4–46 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 7–42 LSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUK 11–39 LSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 14–35 LSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUK 18–32 LSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUK 21–28 LSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUK 25–25 LSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUK 28–21 LSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUK 32–18 LSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUK 0–42 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUK 4–39 LSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 7–35 LSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUK 11–32 LSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUK 14–28 LSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUK 18–25 LSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUK 21–21 LSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUK 25–18 LSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUK 28–14 LSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UK 0–35 LSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUK 4–32 LSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUK 7–28 LSU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUK 11–25 LSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUK 14–21 LSU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUK 18–18 LSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 21–14 LSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUK 25–11 LSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)UK 0–28 LSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUK 4–25 LSU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUK 7–21 LSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUK 11–18 LSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUK 14–14 LSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUK 18–11 LSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUK 21–7 LSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes70635649423528totalLSU +42LSU +28LSU +14PKUK +14margin →