AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
Deep South's Oldest Rivalry
#31Away
Auburn
0-0 · AVR 62.1
16p
#3Home
Georgia
0-0 · AVR 80.0
37p
AUB 8%92% UGA
Spread
UGA -20.8
Total
52
Moneyline
AUB+1166UGA-1166
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← AUB advantageevenUGA advantage →
AUB throw
AUB protection #51UGA pass rush #88
AUB +21
AUB run
UGA front #88UGA linebackers #4
AUB +8
UGA throw
AUB pass rush #18
UGA +11
UGA run
AUB +12

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UGA runs
Nate Frazier
vs
Xavier Atkins
RB · UGA
MLB · AUB
81.1
93.4
AUB +12
when AUB throws
Keshaun Singleton
vs
KJ Bolden
X · AUB
CB1 · UGA
86.7
81.2
AUB +6
when AUB runs
Jeremiah Cobb
vs
Chris Cole
RB · AUB
MLB · UGA
78.7
85.5
UGA +7
off the edge· hunting Stockton
Drew Bobo
vs
Cody Sigler
LT · UGA
EDGE · AUB
63.4
92.0
AUB +29
over the middle
Jonathan Echols
vs
Ja'Marley Riddle
TE · AUB
FS · UGA
67.1
70.8
UGA +4
when UGA throws
Isiah Canion
vs
Fred Gaskin III
X · UGA
CB1 · AUB
63.4
66.3
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Auburn
LBXavier Atkins
93.44/878
WRKeshaun Singleton
86.79/777
WRJeremiah Koger
83.116/777
QBByrum Brown
81.319/308
RBJeremiah Cobb
78.729/514
LBColeman Granberry
78.082/878

also out — Fly, Tai Buster (OL), tight end (TE), Auburn Linebacker Likely, Auburn edge rusher (DL), Auburn linebacker (LB), J.J. Faulk (EDGE), Auburn RB (RB) +3 more

Georgia
LBChris Cole
85.521/878
LBRaylen Wilson
84.324/878
QBGunner Stockton
81.718/308
DBKJ Bolden
81.280/1427
RBNate Frazier
81.119/514
SKhalil Barnes
74.0164/1427

also out — unknown, Dante Dowdell (RB), Kirby Smart (RB), AJC.com (DB), Former Georgia Bulldogs OL (OL), Drew Bobo (C), Carter Loflin (OL)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Auburn
opponent
Georgia
away-11.5
Ole Miss#14
+6.8away
home-1.9
Vanderbilt#23
+16.4home
away-12.7
Alabama#12
+5.6away
home-1.2
Florida#25
+14.6neutral
home+5.6
Arkansas#40
+19.0away

Projected margin

80% between 3 and 38
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUGA +20.895% interval: -3.1 to 44.780% interval: 3.4 to 38.2+3+38AUB wins 8%UGA wins 92%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UGA 35–14 AUBUGA 32–39 AUB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 35–35 AUB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUGA 39–32 AUB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUGA 42–28 AUB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUGA 46–25 AUB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUGA 49–21 AUB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUGA 53–18 AUB neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUGA 56–14 AUB neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUGA 60–11 AUB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 28–35 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 32–32 AUB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUGA 35–28 AUB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUGA 39–25 AUB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 42–21 AUB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 46–18 AUB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 49–14 AUB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUGA 53–11 AUB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUGA 56–7 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 25–32 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 28–28 AUB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUGA 32–25 AUB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 35–21 AUB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 39–18 AUB neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesUGA 42–14 AUB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 46–11 AUB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 49–7 AUB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUGA 53–4 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 21–28 AUB neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 25–25 AUB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUGA 28–21 AUB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 32–18 AUB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 35–14 AUB neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesUGA 39–11 AUB neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 42–7 AUB neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 46–4 AUB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUGA 49–0 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 18–25 AUB neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 21–21 AUB neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUGA 25–18 AUB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUGA 28–14 AUB neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUGA 32–11 AUB neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUGA 35–7 AUB neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 39–4 AUB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUGA 42–0 AUB neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UGA 14–21 AUB neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 18–18 AUB neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUGA 21–14 AUB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 25–11 AUB neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUGA 28–7 AUB neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUGA 32–4 AUB neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUGA 35–0 AUB neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)UGA 11–18 AUB neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 14–14 AUB neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUGA 18–11 AUB neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUGA 21–7 AUB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUGA 25–4 AUB neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUGA 28–0 AUB neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalAUB +7UGA +7UGA +21UGA +35UGA +49margin →