CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET
Away
Kentucky
5-1
20p
Home
Oklahoma
3-2
31p
Forecast win probability
UK 22.1%77.9% OU
Projected margin
OU by 12.0
Projected total
51
80% outcome range
UK 7 to OU 31
Win probability
OU 77.9%

Current team profiles

Kentucky
Oklahoma

When Kentucky has the ball

Passing

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UK offense
#66
OU defense
#12
EPA comparison
0.24
#66
-0.07
#12
Pass EPA

Rushing

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UK offense
#35
OU defense
#26
EPA comparison
0.19
#35
-0.08
#26
Rush EPA

Drive success

OU defense
Higher-ranked profile
UK offense
#20
OU defense
#2
Success rates
50%
#20
32%
#2
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#43
-0.16
#3
EPA / play
1.15
#106
1.27
#89
Explosiveness
13%
#39
21%
#14
Havoc

When Oklahoma has the ball

Passing

OU offense
Higher-ranked profile
UK defense
#60
OU offense
#55
EPA comparison
0.11
#60
0.27
#55
Pass EPA

Rushing

UK defense
Higher-ranked profile
UK defense
#81
OU offense
#138
EPA comparison
0.06
#81
-0.24
#138
Rush EPA

Drive success

UK defense
Higher-ranked profile
UK defense
#109
OU offense
#119
Success rates
44%
#109
38%
#119
Success rate
More metrics
0.04
#56
-0.04
#129
EPA / play
1.17
#44
1.06
#132
Explosiveness
18%
#36
17%
#114
Havoc

Current key players

Kentucky
QBKenny Minchey
1148 yds · 11 TD · 1 INT
63.0239/729
RBJason Patterson
355 yds · 3 TD · 7.9 YPC
86.228/1044
WRKenny Darby
25 rec · 322 yds · 3 TD
81.147/2069
TEElijah Brown
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
66.8
Run blocking
78.1
Penalties
0
80.524/1017
LBAntwan Smith
4 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
79.9
Coverage
64.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
73.9220/1796
LBSam Greene
17 tkl · 0.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.3
Coverage
66.7
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
68
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
2
73.6234/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Tovani Mizell · RBout · 2026-08-22

    Mizell is laid up with an undisclosed injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Lincoln Watkins · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Watkins is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will be available against Sooners on Saturday, October

Oklahoma
QBWhitt Newbauer
6 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
65.3214/729
DBPeyton Bowen
17 tkl · 4 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
81.1
Coverage
83.7
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
2
84.925/2969
LBDane Bathurst
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.9
Coverage
63.9
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.560/1796
TETrynae Washington
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
67.4
Run blocking
81.4
Penalties
0
79.229/1017
WRIsaiah Sategna III
20 rec · 267 yds · 2 TD
75.7115/2069
DBEli Bowen
12 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
89.3
Coverage
64.2
Targets allowed
21
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
124
Passer rating allowed
58.4
Missed tackles
1
70.5412/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Trell Harris · WRout · 2026-09-15

    Harris sustained a back injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Jer'Michael Carter · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Carter is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Jack Van Dorselaer · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Dorselaer is hampered by an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

UK
OU
vs
Offense
63.0
#126 of 138
QB
65.3
#119 of 138
81.1
#30 of 138
RB
67.2
#134 of 138
70.6
#75 of 138
WR
68.7
#99 of 138
80.5
#24 of 138
TE
79.2
#27 of 138
74.5
#20 of 138
OL
73.3
#25 of 138
Defense
71.6
#90 of 138
DL
77.6
#30 of 138
71.1
#95 of 138
LB
73.7
#74 of 138
70.3
#92 of 138
DB
71.9
#72 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Kentucky
opponent
Oklahoma
A+10.0
TA&M#28
+0.6H
A-11.9
MIZ#15
-2.5A
A+1.0
SC#38
+8.6H
H-3.4
FLA#22
+0.6A