AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#67Away
Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 49.8
14p
#11Home
Oklahoma
0-0 · AVR 74.3
36p
UK 7%93% OU
Spread
OU -22.0
Total
50
Moneyline
UK+1379OU-1379
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UK advantageevenOU advantage →
UK throw
UK protection #32
OU +56
UK run
UK backs #105
OU +43
OU throw
UK pass rush #49
OU +29
OU run
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Minchey
Coleton Price
vs
Taylor Wein
LT · UK
EDGE · OU
85.1
96.5
OU +11
off the edge· hunting Mateer
Caleb Nitta
vs
Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace
LT · OU
EDGE · UK
74.3
84.7
UK +10
when UK runs
CJ Baxter
vs
Kip Lewis
RB · UK
MLB · OU
52.0
92.3
OU +40
when OU throws
Parker Livingstone
vs
Jesse Anderson III
X · OU
CB1 · UK
71.1
70.2
dead even
when UK throws
Nic Anderson
vs
Peyton Bowen
X · UK
CB1 · OU
45.6
86.1
OU +40
when OU runs
Lloyd Avant
vs
Lorenzo Cowan
RB · OU
MLB · UK
62.3
66.0
UK +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kentucky
DBJesse Anderson III
70.2234/1427
DBTy Bryant
68.1277/1427
LBLorenzo Cowan
66.0199/878
LBSam Greene
65.4207/878
QBKenny Minchey
53.8109/308
RBCJ Baxterprobable
52.0227/514

also out — T. Mizell (RB), Jovantae Barnes (RB)

Oklahoma
LBKip Lewis
92.36/878
LBOwen Heinecke
91.78/878
DBPeyton Bowen
86.134/1427
DBEli Bowenprobable
83.063/1427
DBCourtland Guillory
82.468/1427
QBJohn Mateerprobable
71.835/308

also out — Michael Fasusi, Jaren Kanak (TE), Oklahoma OL (OL), Maikkula (C), Jake Maikkula (OL)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kentucky
opponent
Oklahoma
away-16.1
South Carolina#29
+8.5home
away-26.5
Texas A&M#8
-2.0home
away-17.0
Missouri#24
+2.5away
home-11.9
Florida#25
+2.6away

Projected margin

80% between 5 and 39
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOU +22.095% interval: -1.9 to 45.980% interval: 4.6 to 39.4+5+39UK wins 7%OU wins 93%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OU 35–14 UKOU 32–39 UK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 35–35 UK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOU 39–32 UK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 42–28 UK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOU 46–25 UK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOU 49–21 UK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOU 53–18 UK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOU 56–14 UK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOU 60–11 UK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 28–35 UK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 32–32 UK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOU 35–28 UK neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 39–25 UK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOU 42–21 UK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOU 46–18 UK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOU 49–14 UK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOU 53–11 UK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOU 56–7 UK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 25–32 UK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 28–28 UK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOU 32–25 UK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOU 35–21 UK neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOU 39–18 UK neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOU 42–14 UK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOU 46–11 UK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOU 49–7 UK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOU 53–4 UK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 21–28 UK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 25–25 UK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOU 28–21 UK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOU 32–18 UK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesOU 35–14 UK neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesOU 39–11 UK neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOU 42–7 UK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOU 46–4 UK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 49–0 UK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 18–25 UK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 21–21 UK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOU 25–18 UK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOU 28–14 UK neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOU 32–11 UK neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOU 35–7 UK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOU 39–4 UK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOU 42–0 UK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)OU 14–21 UK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 18–18 UK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOU 21–14 UK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOU 25–11 UK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOU 28–7 UK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOU 32–4 UK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOU 35–0 UK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)OU 11–18 UK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 14–14 UK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 18–11 UK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOU 21–7 UK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOU 25–4 UK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOU 28–0 UK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalUK +7OU +7OU +21OU +35OU +49margin →