AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 8 · Sat Oct 24 · 4:00 AM
#17Away
Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 71.5
30p
#29Home
South Carolina
0-0 · AVR 63.4
27p
TENN 58%42% SC
Spread
TENN -2.8
Total
58
Moneyline
TENN-138SC+138
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TENN advantageevenSC advantage →
TENN throw
TENN QB #86TENN WR #10
even
TENN run
TENN +8
SC throw
TENN +11
SC run
TENN +44

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Phillips
Shamurad Umarov
vs
Dylan Stewart
LT · TENN
EDGE · SC
81.0
91.7
SC +11
when TENN runs
DeSean Bishop
vs
Fred Johnson
RB · TENN
MLB · SC
85.8
78.4
TENN +7
when TENN throws
Mike Matthews
vs
Vicari Swain
X · TENN
CB1 · SC
79.8
71.7
TENN +8
when SC throws
Nyck Harbor
vs
Ty Redmond
X · SC
CB1 · TENN
61.5
78.0
TENN +16
when SC runs
Christian Clark
vs
Amare Campbell
RB · SC
MLB · TENN
53.4
77.3
TENN +24
over the middle
Ethan Davis
vs
Gerald Kilgore
TE · TENN
FS · SC
66.4
62.1
TENN +4

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Tennessee
RBDeSean Bishop
85.85/514
WRMike Matthews
79.821/777
DBTy Redmond
78.0114/1427
DBQua Moss
77.8119/1427
LBAmare Campbell
77.387/878
WRBraylon Staley
75.532/777

also out — Jadais Richard (CB), EDGE Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Tennessee Football Starting Defender (S), Tennessee defensive back (DB), unknown (S), Farooq (S), Tennessee (S) +1 more

South Carolina
LBFred Johnson
78.473/878
LBJustin Okoronkwo
72.1123/878
DBVicari Swain
71.7197/1427
QBLaNorris Sellers
67.648/308
DBPeyton Williams
67.0308/1427
DBJalewis Solomon
62.1423/1427

also out — unknown (WR), J. Gibson (WR), J. Sellers (WR), Dylan Stewart (EDGE), Jacarrius Peak (OL)

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Tennessee
opponent
South Carolina
home+0.5
Alabama#12
-9.8away
away+8.8
Arkansas#40
+3.5away
home+21.3
Kentucky#67
+16.1home
away-7.7
Texas A&M#8
-8.0home

Projected margin

80% between -20 and 15
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTENN +2.895% interval: -26.7 to 21.180% interval: -20.2 to 14.6-20+15TENN wins 58%SC wins 42%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ SC 28–28 TENNSC 25–53 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSC 28–49 TENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSC 32–46 TENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSC 35–42 TENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSC 39–39 TENN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSC 42–35 TENN neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesSC 46–32 TENN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSC 49–28 TENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSC 53–25 TENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSC 21–49 TENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSC 25–46 TENN neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSC 28–42 TENN neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSC 32–39 TENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSC 35–35 TENN neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSC 39–32 TENN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSC 42–28 TENN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSC 46–25 TENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 49–21 TENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSC 18–46 TENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSC 21–42 TENN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSC 25–39 TENN neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSC 28–35 TENN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSC 32–32 TENN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSC 35–28 TENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSC 39–25 TENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSC 42–21 TENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSC 46–18 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 14–42 TENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 18–39 TENN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSC 21–35 TENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSC 25–32 TENN neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesSC 28–28 TENN neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSC 32–25 TENN neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSC 35–21 TENN neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSC 39–18 TENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSC 42–14 TENN neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 11–39 TENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSC 14–35 TENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSC 18–32 TENN neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSC 21–28 TENN neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSC 25–25 TENN neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSC 28–21 TENN neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesSC 32–18 TENN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSC 35–14 TENN neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 39–11 TENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSC 7–35 TENN neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSC 11–32 TENN neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSC 14–28 TENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 18–25 TENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSC 21–21 TENN neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSC 25–18 TENN neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSC 28–14 TENN neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSC 32–11 TENN neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesSC 35–7 TENN neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSC 4–32 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSC 7–28 TENN neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesSC 11–25 TENN neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSC 14–21 TENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 18–18 TENN neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 21–14 TENN neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSC 25–11 TENN neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSC 28–7 TENN neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSC 32–4 TENN neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomes77706356494235totalTENN +28TENN +14PKSC +14SC +28margin →