AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 7:30 PM · neutral site
World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party
#25Away
Florida
0-0 · AVR 66.3
19p
#3Home
Georgia
0-0 · AVR 80.0
34p
FLA 16%84% UGA
Spread
UGA -14.6
Total
52
Moneyline
FLA+521UGA-521
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← FLA advantageevenUGA advantage →
FLA throw
FLA QB #101FLA WR #33
UGA +13
FLA run
UGA front #88UGA linebackers #4
FLA +24
UGA throw
UGA +9
UGA run
FLA +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UGA runs
Nate Frazier
vs
Myles Graham
RB · UGA
MLB · FLA
81.1
86.1
FLA +5
when FLA runs
Jadan Baugh
vs
Chris Cole
RB · FLA
MLB · UGA
80.9
85.5
UGA +5
off the edge· hunting Stockton
Drew Bobo
vs
Emmanuel Oyebadejo
LT · UGA
EDGE · FLA
63.4
90.7
FLA +27
when FLA throws
Vernell Brown III
vs
KJ Bolden
X · FLA
CB1 · UGA
71.4
81.2
UGA +10
over the middle
Lacota Dippre
vs
Ja'Marley Riddle
TE · FLA
FS · UGA
73.7
70.8
dead even
when UGA throws
Isiah Canion
vs
Bryce Thornton
X · UGA
CB1 · FLA
63.4
72.0
FLA +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Florida
LBMyles Graham
86.118/878
LBJayden Woods
82.837/878
RBJadan Baugh
80.921/514
TELacota Dippre
73.75/287
SBryce Thornton
72.0189/1427
WRVernell Brown III
71.445/777

also out — Graham Mertz

Georgia
LBChris Cole
85.521/878
LBRaylen Wilson
84.324/878
QBGunner Stockton
81.718/308
DBKJ Bolden
81.280/1427
RBNate Frazier
81.119/514
SKhalil Barnes
74.0164/1427

also out — unknown, Dante Dowdell (RB), Kirby Smart (RB), AJC.com (DB), Former Georgia Bulldogs OL (OL), Drew Bobo (C), Carter Loflin (OL)

Common opponents

6 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Florida
opponent
Georgia
away+1.2
Auburn#31
+20.8home
away-2.7
Missouri#24
+16.9home
home-2.6
Oklahoma#11
+12.0home
home+1.8
Vanderbilt#23
+16.4home
home+3.3
South Carolina#29
+12.9away
home-2.8
Ole Miss#14
+6.8away

Projected margin

80% between -3 and 32
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUGA +14.695% interval: -9.3 to 38.580% interval: -2.8 to 32-3+32FLA wins 16%UGA wins 84%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UGA 32–18 FLAUGA 28–42 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 32–39 FLA neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUGA 35–35 FLA neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUGA 39–32 FLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 42–28 FLA neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUGA 46–25 FLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUGA 49–21 FLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 53–18 FLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUGA 56–14 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 25–39 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 28–35 FLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUGA 32–32 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUGA 35–28 FLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUGA 39–25 FLA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 42–21 FLA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 46–18 FLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUGA 49–14 FLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUGA 53–11 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 21–35 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 25–32 FLA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUGA 28–28 FLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUGA 32–25 FLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUGA 35–21 FLA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUGA 39–18 FLA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 42–14 FLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 46–11 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUGA 49–7 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 18–32 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 21–28 FLA neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUGA 25–25 FLA neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesUGA 28–21 FLA neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUGA 32–18 FLA neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUGA 35–14 FLA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 39–11 FLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 42–7 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUGA 46–4 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 14–28 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 18–25 FLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUGA 21–21 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUGA 25–18 FLA neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUGA 28–14 FLA neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUGA 32–11 FLA neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUGA 35–7 FLA neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUGA 39–4 FLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUGA 42–0 FLA neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUGA 11–25 FLA neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUGA 14–21 FLA neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUGA 18–18 FLA neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUGA 21–14 FLA neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUGA 25–11 FLA neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUGA 28–7 FLA neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesUGA 32–4 FLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 35–0 FLA neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UGA 7–21 FLA neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUGA 11–18 FLA neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUGA 14–14 FLA neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUGA 18–11 FLA neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUGA 21–7 FLA neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesUGA 25–4 FLA neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUGA 28–0 FLA neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalFLA +14PKUGA +14UGA +28UGA +42margin →