AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 9 · Sat Oct 31 · 4:00 AM
#29Away
South Carolina
0-0 · AVR 63.4
20p
#11Home
Oklahoma
0-0 · AVR 74.3
28p
SC 28%72% OU
Spread
OU -8.5
Total
48
Moneyline
SC+262OU-262
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← SC advantageevenOU advantage →
SC throw
OU +30
SC run
OU +64
OU throw
OU +6
OU run
SC +19

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mateer
Caleb Nitta
vs
Dylan Stewart
LT · OU
EDGE · SC
74.3
91.7
SC +17
when SC throws
Nyck Harbor
vs
Peyton Bowen
X · SC
CB1 · OU
61.5
86.1
OU +25
when SC runs
Christian Clark
vs
Kip Lewis
RB · SC
MLB · OU
53.4
92.3
OU +39
when OU throws
Parker Livingstone
vs
Vicari Swain
X · OU
CB1 · SC
71.1
71.7
dead even
when OU runs
Lloyd Avant
vs
Fred Johnson
RB · OU
MLB · SC
62.3
78.4
SC +16
over the middle
Jack Van Dorselaer
vs
Gerald Kilgore
TE · OU
FS · SC
61.7
62.1
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
South Carolina
LBFred Johnson
78.473/878
LBJustin Okoronkwo
72.1123/878
DBVicari Swain
71.7197/1427
QBLaNorris Sellers
67.648/308
DBPeyton Williams
67.0308/1427
DBJalewis Solomon
62.1423/1427

also out — unknown (WR), J. Gibson (WR), J. Sellers (WR), Dylan Stewart (EDGE), Jacarrius Peak (OL)

Oklahoma
LBKip Lewis
92.36/878
LBOwen Heinecke
91.78/878
DBPeyton Bowen
86.134/1427
DBEli Bowenprobable
83.063/1427
DBCourtland Guillory
82.468/1427
QBJohn Mateerprobable
71.835/308

also out — Michael Fasusi, Jaren Kanak (TE), Oklahoma OL (OL), Maikkula (C), Jake Maikkula (OL)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
South Carolina
opponent
Oklahoma
home-8.0
Texas A&M#8
-2.0home
away-3.3
Florida#25
+2.6away
home+16.1
Kentucky#67
+22.0home
home+9.0
Mississippi State#45
+10.0away
home-12.9
Georgia#3
-12.0away

Projected margin

80% between -9 and 26
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOU +8.595% interval: -15.4 to 32.480% interval: -8.9 to 25.8-9+26SC wins 28%OU wins 72%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OU 28–21 SCOU 25–46 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 28–42 SC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 32–39 SC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOU 35–35 SC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 39–32 SC neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOU 42–28 SC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOU 46–25 SC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 49–21 SC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOU 53–18 SC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 21–42 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 25–39 SC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOU 28–35 SC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOU 32–32 SC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOU 35–28 SC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOU 39–25 SC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOU 42–21 SC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOU 46–18 SC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOU 49–14 SC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOU 18–39 SC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 21–35 SC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOU 25–32 SC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOU 28–28 SC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOU 32–25 SC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOU 35–21 SC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOU 39–18 SC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOU 42–14 SC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOU 46–11 SC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 14–35 SC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 18–32 SC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOU 21–28 SC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOU 25–25 SC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOU 28–21 SC neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOU 32–18 SC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOU 35–14 SC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOU 39–11 SC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOU 42–7 SC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 11–32 SC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 14–28 SC neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOU 18–25 SC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesOU 21–21 SC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesOU 25–18 SC neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOU 28–14 SC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesOU 32–11 SC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOU 35–7 SC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOU 39–4 SC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 7–28 SC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesOU 11–25 SC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesOU 14–21 SC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOU 18–18 SC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesOU 21–14 SC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOU 25–11 SC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOU 28–7 SC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOU 32–4 SC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesOU 35–0 SC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOU 4–25 SC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOU 7–21 SC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOU 11–18 SC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOU 14–14 SC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesOU 18–11 SC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOU 21–7 SC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOU 25–4 SC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOU 28–0 SC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalSC +21SC +7OU +7OU +21OU +35margin →