AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#40Away
Arkansas
0-0 · AVR 58.2
25p
#31Home
Auburn
0-0 · AVR 62.1
31p
ARK 35%65% AUB
Spread
AUB -5.6
Total
57
Moneyline
ARK+188AUB-188
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARK advantageevenAUB advantage →
ARK throw
AUB pass rush #18
AUB +8
ARK run
AUB +32
AUB throw
AUB protection #51
AUB +25
AUB run
ARK linebackers #107
AUB +22

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when ARK runs
Sutton Smith
vs
Xavier Atkins
RB · ARK
MLB · AUB
68.8
93.4
AUB +25
when AUB throws
Keshaun Singleton
vs
Joker Johnson
X · AUB
CB1 · ARK
86.7
70.0
AUB +17
when AUB runs
Jeremiah Cobb
vs
Ben Bogle
RB · AUB
MLB · ARK
78.7
77.0
dead even
off the edge· hunting Brown
Jacob Strand
vs
Steven Soles Jr.
LT · AUB
EDGE · ARK
53.1
85.2
ARK +32
off the edge· hunting Jackson
Bryant Williams
vs
Cody Sigler
LT · ARK
EDGE · AUB
45.4
92.0
AUB +47
over the middle
Jaden Platt
vs
Sylvester Smith-Reed
TE · ARK
FS · AUB
78.6
57.9
ARK +21

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arkansas
TEJaden Platt
78.63/287
LBBen Bogle
77.088/878
DBJoker Johnson
70.0239/1427
RBSutton Smith
68.861/514
DBLa'khi Roland
64.9358/1427
DBChristian Harrison
60.9459/1427

also out — M. Lassiter (TE)

Auburn
LBXavier Atkins
93.44/878
WRKeshaun Singleton
86.79/777
WRJeremiah Koger
83.116/777
QBByrum Brown
81.319/308
RBJeremiah Cobb
78.729/514
LBColeman Granberry
78.082/878

also out — Fly, Tai Buster (OL), tight end (TE), Auburn Linebacker Likely, Auburn edge rusher (DL), Auburn linebacker (LB), J.J. Faulk (EDGE), Auburn RB (RB) +3 more

Common opponents

4 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arkansas
opponent
Auburn
away-10.0
Vanderbilt#23
-1.9home
home-4.8
LSU#20
-1.6home
home-8.8
Tennessee#17
-10.7away
home-19.0
Georgia#3
-20.8away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKAUB +5.695% interval: -18.3 to 29.580% interval: -11.7 to 23-12+23ARK wins 35%AUB wins 65%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ AUB 32–25 ARKAUB 28–49 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 32–46 ARK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 35–42 ARK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAUB 39–39 ARK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAUB 42–35 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 46–32 ARK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 49–28 ARK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 53–25 ARK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 56–21 ARK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesAUB 25–46 ARK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAUB 28–42 ARK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAUB 32–39 ARK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 35–35 ARK neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesAUB 39–32 ARK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesAUB 42–28 ARK neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesAUB 46–25 ARK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAUB 49–21 ARK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 53–18 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 21–42 ARK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 25–39 ARK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 28–35 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 32–32 ARK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAUB 35–28 ARK neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAUB 39–25 ARK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAUB 42–21 ARK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 46–18 ARK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAUB 49–14 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 18–39 ARK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 21–35 ARK neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesAUB 25–32 ARK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAUB 28–28 ARK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesAUB 32–25 ARK neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesAUB 35–21 ARK neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesAUB 39–18 ARK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 42–14 ARK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAUB 46–11 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 14–35 ARK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesAUB 18–32 ARK neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesAUB 21–28 ARK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesAUB 25–25 ARK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesAUB 28–21 ARK neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesAUB 32–18 ARK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAUB 35–14 ARK neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAUB 39–11 ARK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesAUB 42–7 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 11–32 ARK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesAUB 14–28 ARK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesAUB 18–25 ARK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesAUB 21–21 ARK neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesAUB 25–18 ARK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesAUB 28–14 ARK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesAUB 32–11 ARK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesAUB 35–7 ARK neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesAUB 39–4 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 7–28 ARK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesAUB 11–25 ARK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesAUB 14–21 ARK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesAUB 18–18 ARK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesAUB 21–14 ARK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesAUB 25–11 ARK neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesAUB 28–7 ARK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesAUB 32–4 ARK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesAUB 35–0 ARK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalARK +21ARK +7AUB +7AUB +21AUB +35margin →