AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
#8Away
Texas A&M
0-0 · AVR 76.5
31p
#29Home
South Carolina
0-0 · AVR 63.4
23p
TA&M 71%29% SC
Spread
TA&M -8.0
Total
53
Moneyline
TA&M-246SC+246
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← TA&M advantageevenSC advantage →
TA&M throw
TA&M WR #1TA&M protection #120
even
TA&M run
TA&M line #120TA&M backs #40
SC +46
SC throw
TA&M +23
SC run
TA&M +55

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when TA&M throws
Mario Craver
vs
Vicari Swain
X · TA&M
CB1 · SC
85.5
71.7
TA&M +14
when TA&M runs
Rueben Owens II
vs
Fred Johnson
RB · TA&M
MLB · SC
74.1
78.4
SC +4
when SC throws
Nyck Harbor
vs
Marcus Ratcliffe
X · SC
CB1 · TA&M
61.5
80.6
TA&M +19
when SC runs
Christian Clark
vs
Daymion Sanford
RB · SC
MLB · TA&M
53.4
82.7
TA&M +29
over the middle
Houston Thomas
vs
Gerald Kilgore
TE · TA&M
FS · SC
57.9
62.1
SC +4
over the middle
Mike Tyler
vs
Adam Graham
TE · SC
FS · TA&M
42.0
70.8
TA&M +29

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Texas A&M
WRMario Craver
85.513/777
LBDaymion Sanford
82.739/878
SMarcus Ratcliffe
80.688/1427
QBMarcel Reed
80.221/308
LBRay Coney
78.869/878
CBRickey Gibson III
78.4108/1427

also out — Target After Missing, Former Texas A&M OL (OL), star safety (S), Chace Sims (DL), DT Sims, McGuire (OL), Myles (WR), Player 1 +3 more

South Carolina
LBFred Johnson
78.473/878
LBJustin Okoronkwo
72.1123/878
DBVicari Swain
71.7197/1427
QBLaNorris Sellers
67.648/308
DBPeyton Williams
67.0308/1427
DBJalewis Solomon
62.1423/1427

also out — unknown (WR), J. Gibson (WR), J. Sellers (WR), Dylan Stewart (EDGE), Jacarrius Peak (OL)

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Texas A&M
opponent
South Carolina
home+19.0
Arkansas#40
+3.5away
home+7.7
Tennessee#17
-2.8home
away+2.0
Oklahoma#11
-8.5away
away+0.6
Alabama#12
-9.8away
home+26.5
Kentucky#67
+16.1home

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 9
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTA&M +8.095% interval: -31.9 to 1680% interval: -25.3 to 9.4-25+9TA&M wins 71%SC wins 29%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TA&M 32–25 SCSC 21–56 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 25–53 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 28–49 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSC 32–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSC 35–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 39–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSC 42–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSC 46–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSC 49–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesSC 18–53 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSC 21–49 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 25–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesSC 28–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSC 32–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSC 35–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSC 39–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesSC 42–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 46–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 14–49 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSC 18–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSC 21–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSC 25–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesSC 28–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSC 32–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSC 35–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSC 39–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 42–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 11–46 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSC 14–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSC 18–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesSC 21–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesSC 25–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSC 28–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSC 32–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 35–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSC 39–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSC 7–42 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesSC 11–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesSC 14–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSC 18–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSC 21–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesSC 25–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesSC 28–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 32–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesSC 35–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSC 4–39 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesSC 7–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesSC 11–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesSC 14–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesSC 18–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesSC 21–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesSC 25–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesSC 28–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 32–11 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 0–35 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesSC 4–32 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesSC 7–28 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesSC 11–25 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesSC 14–21 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesSC 18–18 TA&M neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesSC 21–14 TA&M neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesSC 25–11 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesSC 28–7 TA&M neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalTA&M +35TA&M +21TA&M +7SC +7SC +21margin →