AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 10 · Sat Nov 7 · 5:00 AM
Kentucky-Tennessee
#67Away
Kentucky
0-0 · AVR 49.8
19p
#17Home
Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 71.5
41p
UK 7%93% TENN
Spread
TENN -21.3
Total
60
Moneyline
UK+1268TENN-1268
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← UK advantageevenTENN advantage →
UK throw
UK protection #32
TENN +37
UK run
UK backs #105
TENN +23
TENN throw
TENN QB #86TENN WR #10
TENN +20
TENN run
TENN +30

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Minchey
Coleton Price
vs
Jordan Norman
LT · UK
EDGE · TENN
85.1
82.3
dead even
off the edge· hunting Phillips
Shamurad Umarov
vs
Mi'Quise Humphrey-Grace
LT · TENN
EDGE · UK
81.0
84.7
UK +4
when TENN runs
DeSean Bishop
vs
Lorenzo Cowan
RB · TENN
MLB · UK
85.8
66.0
TENN +20
when TENN throws
Mike Matthews
vs
Jesse Anderson III
X · TENN
CB1 · UK
79.8
70.2
TENN +10
when UK runs
CJ Baxter
vs
Amare Campbell
RB · UK
MLB · TENN
52.0
77.3
TENN +25
when UK throws
Nic Anderson
vs
Ty Redmond
X · UK
CB1 · TENN
45.6
78.0
TENN +32

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Kentucky
DBJesse Anderson III
70.2234/1427
DBTy Bryant
68.1277/1427
LBLorenzo Cowan
66.0199/878
LBSam Greene
65.4207/878
QBKenny Minchey
53.8109/308
RBCJ Baxterprobable
52.0227/514

also out — T. Mizell (RB), Jovantae Barnes (RB)

Tennessee
RBDeSean Bishop
85.85/514
WRMike Matthews
79.821/777
DBTy Redmond
78.0114/1427
DBQua Moss
77.8119/1427
LBAmare Campbell
77.387/878
WRBraylon Staley
75.532/777

also out — Jadais Richard (CB), EDGE Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Jaedon Harmon (EDGE), Tennessee Football Starting Defender (S), Tennessee defensive back (DB), unknown (S), Farooq (S), Tennessee (S) +1 more

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Kentucky
opponent
Tennessee
away-16.1
South Carolina#29
+2.8away
home-18.4
Alabama#12
+0.5home
away-26.5
Texas A&M#8
-7.7away
home-12.3
LSU#20
+6.5home
home-12.5
Vanderbilt#23
+1.3away

Projected margin

80% between 4 and 39
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKTENN +21.395% interval: -2.6 to 45.280% interval: 3.9 to 38.7+4+39UK wins 7%TENN wins 93%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ TENN 42–21 UKTENN 39–46 UK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 42–42 UK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTENN 46–39 UK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTENN 49–35 UK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTENN 53–32 UK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTENN 56–28 UK neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTENN 60–25 UK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTENN 63–21 UK neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTENN 67–18 UK neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTENN 35–42 UK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 39–39 UK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTENN 42–35 UK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 46–32 UK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTENN 49–28 UK neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTENN 53–25 UK neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTENN 56–21 UK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 60–18 UK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTENN 63–14 UK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 32–39 UK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 35–35 UK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTENN 39–32 UK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTENN 42–28 UK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTENN 46–25 UK neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesTENN 49–21 UK neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTENN 53–18 UK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTENN 56–14 UK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTENN 60–11 UK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 28–35 UK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 32–32 UK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTENN 35–28 UK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTENN 39–25 UK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTENN 42–21 UK neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTENN 46–18 UK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTENN 49–14 UK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTENN 53–11 UK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTENN 56–7 UK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTENN 25–32 UK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 28–28 UK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTENN 32–25 UK neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTENN 35–21 UK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTENN 39–18 UK neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTENN 42–14 UK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTENN 46–11 UK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTENN 49–7 UK neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTENN 53–4 UK neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTENN 21–28 UK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 25–25 UK neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTENN 28–21 UK neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTENN 32–18 UK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTENN 35–14 UK neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTENN 39–11 UK neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTENN 42–7 UK neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTENN 46–4 UK neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTENN 49–0 UK neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTENN 18–25 UK neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTENN 21–21 UK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTENN 25–18 UK neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesTENN 28–14 UK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTENN 32–11 UK neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesTENN 35–7 UK neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTENN 39–4 UK neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTENN 42–0 UK neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)84777063564942totalUK +7TENN +7TENN +21TENN +35TENN +49margin →