CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 12 · Sat Nov 21 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
SAM 0.1%99.9% AUB
Projected margin
AUB by 54.6
Projected total
71
80% outcome range
AUB 37 to AUB 73
Win probability
AUB 99.9%

Current team profiles

Samford
Auburn

When Samford has the ball

Passing

No comparison
SAM offense
—
AUB defense
#41
EPA comparison
—
0.07
#41
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
SAM offense
—
AUB defense
#73
EPA comparison
—
0.05
#73
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
SAM offense
#120
AUB defense
#50
Success rates
38%
#120
38%
#50
Success rate
More metrics
0.03
#107
0.01
#44
EPA / play
0.18
#103
1.18
#45
Explosiveness
—
17%
#57
Havoc

When Auburn has the ball

Passing

No comparison
SAM defense
—
AUB offense
#119
EPA comparison
—
0.04
#119
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
SAM defense
—
AUB offense
#39
EPA comparison
—
0.18
#39
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
SAM defense
#55
AUB offense
#86
Success rates
43%
#55
42%
#86
Success rate
More metrics
0.15
#83
0.07
#98
EPA / play
0.21
#64
1.26
#55
Explosiveness
—
16%
#102
Havoc

Current key players

Samford
QBCoulter Cleland
40 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
81.534/370
LBWalker Turner
5 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
76.6
Coverage
79.7
Pressures
1
Pass-rush snaps
1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
90.82/1054
LBBrandon Franklin
15 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.8
Coverage
67.7
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
13
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
0
81.036/1054
DBLawson Estes
2 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.6
Coverage
85.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
80.243/1765
LBSpencer Conn
35 tkl · 6.0 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
80.2
Coverage
63.2
Pressures
7
Pass-rush snaps
30
Missed tackles
5
Forced fumbles
0
77.171/1054
RBEmerson Russell
92 yds · 1 TD · 5.1 YPC
75.480/631
Auburn
QBByrum Brown
1052 yds · 7 TD · 7 INT
83.056/729
LBMichael Matthews-Canty
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
78.3
Coverage
72.0
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
84.447/1796
RBOmar Mabson II
213 yds · 1 TD · 6.5 YPC
77.0133/1044
LBXavier Atkins
37 tkl · 7.5 TFL · 3.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
68.8
Coverage
55.6
Pressures
19
Pass-rush snaps
57
Missed tackles
10
Forced fumbles
0
75.1180/1796
SSylvester Smith-Reed
13 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.1
Coverage
72.2
Targets allowed
12
Rec allowed
7
Yards allowed
48
Passer rating allowed
32.6
Missed tackles
2
72.5302/2969
WRKeshaun Singleton
29 rec · 322 yds · 1 TD
71.2220/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Nykahi Davenport · RBout · 2026-09-20

    Davenport is managing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no time table for his return.

  • Hunter Herring · TEQues. · 2026-09-20

    Herring is tending to an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will be available against Commodores on Saturday, September 26th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

SAM
AUB
vs
Offense
81.5
#30 of 125
QB
83.0
#49 of 138
70.7
#72 of 126
RB
73.9
#83 of 138
70.4
#51 of 126
WR
68.1
#106 of 138
60.1
#92 of 124
TE
63.5
#100 of 138
63.6
#70 of 125
OL
63.8
#105 of 138
Defense
65.1
#117 of 126
DL
69.2
#115 of 138
83.0
#2 of 126
LB
78.2
#35 of 138
74.7
#23 of 126
DB
66.7
#131 of 138
Common opponents