AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 3:45 PM
#97Away
Oklahoma State
0-0 · AVR 40.7
33p
#110Home
Tulsa
0-0 · AVR 35.4
28p
OKST 64%36% TLSA
Spread
OKST -5.0
Total
62
Moneyline
OKST-175TLSA+175
Against the market
TLSA +8.5line OKST -13.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← OKST advantageevenTLSA advantage →
OKST throw
OKST protection #77
OKST +28
OKST run
OKST backs #26
OKST +5
TLSA throw
OKST +26
TLSA run
TLSA line #95TLSA backs #36
OKST +9

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Mestemaker
Johnny Dickson III
vs
Thomas Davis
LT · OKST
EDGE · TLSA
90.8
79.7
OKST +11
when OKST runs
Caleb Hawkins
vs
Chris Thompson Jr.
RB · OKST
MLB · TLSA
88.3
78.3
OKST +10
when OKST throws
Wyatt Young
vs
Elijah Green
X · OKST
CB1 · TLSA
79.7
72.9
OKST +7
off the edge· hunting Hayes
Malachi Preciado
vs
Keviyan Huddleston
LT · TLSA
EDGE · OKST
69.1
79.1
OKST +10
when TLSA runs
Trequan Jones
vs
Ethan Wesloski
RB · TLSA
MLB · OKST
69.0
76.0
OKST +7
when TLSA throws
Jimmy Calloway
vs
Kollin Lewis
X · TLSA
CB1 · OKST
53.4
68.8
OKST +15

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oklahoma State
RBCaleb Hawkins
88.32/514
QBDrew Mestemaker
86.39/308
WRWyatt Young
79.722/777
LBEthan Wesloski
76.095/878
CBKollin Lewis
68.8265/1427
SChristian Bodnar
68.1279/1427
Tulsa
LBChris Thompson Jr.
78.374/878
CBElijah Green
72.9178/1427
RBTrequan Jones
69.059/514
SZach Williams
62.2422/1427
DBDevin Robinson
62.1425/1427
LBDevin Hightower
58.9313/878

Projected margin

80% between -24 and 14
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOKST +5.0MKT95% interval: -35 to 2580% interval: -24 to 14-24+14OKST wins 64%TLSA wins 36%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OKST 35–28 TLSATLSA 25–60 OKST neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesTLSA 28–56 OKST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 32–53 OKST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTLSA 35–49 OKST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTLSA 39–46 OKST neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesTLSA 42–42 OKST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 46–39 OKST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTLSA 49–35 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTLSA 53–32 OKST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTLSA 21–56 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 25–53 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTLSA 28–49 OKST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTLSA 32–46 OKST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTLSA 35–42 OKST neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesTLSA 39–39 OKST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTLSA 42–35 OKST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 46–32 OKST neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesTLSA 49–28 OKST neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesTLSA 18–53 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 21–49 OKST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTLSA 25–46 OKST neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesTLSA 28–42 OKST neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesTLSA 32–39 OKST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTLSA 35–35 OKST neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesTLSA 39–32 OKST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTLSA 42–28 OKST neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesTLSA 46–25 OKST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 14–49 OKST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTLSA 18–46 OKST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTLSA 21–42 OKST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTLSA 25–39 OKST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTLSA 28–35 OKST neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesTLSA 32–32 OKST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTLSA 35–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTLSA 39–25 OKST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTLSA 42–21 OKST neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesTLSA 11–46 OKST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesTLSA 14–42 OKST neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesTLSA 18–39 OKST neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesTLSA 21–35 OKST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTLSA 25–32 OKST neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesTLSA 28–28 OKST neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesTLSA 32–25 OKST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTLSA 35–21 OKST neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesTLSA 39–18 OKST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 7–42 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 11–39 OKST neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesTLSA 14–35 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTLSA 18–32 OKST neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesTLSA 21–28 OKST neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesTLSA 25–25 OKST neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesTLSA 28–21 OKST neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesTLSA 32–18 OKST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTLSA 35–14 OKST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 4–39 OKST neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesTLSA 7–35 OKST neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesTLSA 11–32 OKST neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesTLSA 14–28 OKST neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesTLSA 18–25 OKST neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesTLSA 21–21 OKST neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesTLSA 25–18 OKST neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesTLSA 28–14 OKST neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesTLSA 32–11 OKST neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes84777063564942totalOKST +35OKST +21OKST +7TLSA +7TLSA +21margin →