CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 10:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
MORG 0.8%99.2% ASU
Projected margin
ASU by 38.8
Projected total
54
80% outcome range
ASU 18 to ASU 59
Win probability
ASU 99.2%
FinalMORG 7 · ASU 70model had +38.8, off by 24.2

Current team profiles

Morgan State
Arizona State

When Morgan State has the ball

Passing

No comparison
MORG offense
—
ASU defense
#65
EPA comparison
—
0.12
#65
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
MORG offense
—
ASU defense
#84
EPA comparison
—
0.07
#84
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
MORG offense
#27
ASU defense
#49
Success rates
46%
#27
38%
#49
Success rate
More metrics
0.26
#11
0.09
#87
EPA / play
0.23
#25
1.31
#105
Explosiveness
—
15%
#90
Havoc

When Arizona State has the ball

Passing

No comparison
MORG defense
—
ASU offense
#84
EPA comparison
—
0.16
#84
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
MORG defense
—
ASU offense
#88
EPA comparison
—
0.06
#88
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
MORG defense
#93
ASU offense
#67
Success rates
47%
#93
44%
#67
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#105
0.07
#98
EPA / play
0.22
#92
1.21
#86
Explosiveness
—
16%
#88
Havoc

Current key players

Morgan State
QBTahj Smith
66 yds · 1 TD · 0 INT
92.32/370
DLDonta Jenkins Jr.
10 tkl · 3.0 TFL · 2.5 sk
Player detail
Run defense
89.1
Pressures
15
Pass-rush snaps
64
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
1
91.81/1549
RBJordan Barnett
244 yds · 4 TD · 6.6 YPC
87.19/631
QBCameron Edge
1156 yds · 10 TD · 2 INT
83.525/370
TEMalachi Bryant
8 rec · 99 yds · 2 TD
Player detail
Run blocking
65.1
Penalties
0
81.17/526
DLKemarri Collison
— tkl · — TFL · — sk
Player detail
Run defense
52.7
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
23
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
79.842/1549
Arizona State
QBCutter Boley
1040 yds · 10 TD · 3 INT
78.286/729
WRReed Harris
26 rec · 499 yds · 5 TD
88.012/2069
LBIsaiah Iosefa
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
70.8
Coverage
71.1
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
82.361/1796
RBDemarius Robinson
27 yds · 0 TD · 6.8 YPC
80.571/1044
DBCaleb Chester
9 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
73.0
Coverage
77.8
Targets allowed
7
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
34
Passer rating allowed
86.9
Missed tackles
1
79.176/2969
DBLyrik Rawls
11 tkl · 2 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.5
Coverage
79.6
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
6
Yards allowed
87
Passer rating allowed
95.4
Missed tackles
2
75.9162/2969
Availability reports · 6
  • Lyrik Rawls · CBout · 2026-10-07

    Rawls is managing with a leg injury, and he will miss an undetermined length of time.

  • Khamari Anderson · TEout · 2026-09-21

    Anderson is sidelined with a leg injury, and it is anticipated that he will miss the remainder of the season.

  • Wade Helton · OGout · 2026-09-18

    Helton is sidelined with a leg injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Zyrus Fiaseu · LBout · 2026-08-25

    Fiaseu is sidelined with a knee injury, and he is projected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Grayson Rigdon · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Rigdon is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be determined if he will be active against the Raiders on Saturday, October

  • Harry Hassmann · WRQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hassmann is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against the Raiders on Saturday, October 17th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MORG
ASU
vs
Offense
92.3
#2 of 125
QB
78.2
#67 of 138
81.3
#9 of 126
RB
78.6
#43 of 138
75.5
#12 of 126
WR
72.8
#51 of 138
81.1
#6 of 124
TE
60.5
#114 of 138
61.3
#106 of 125
OL
70.2
#52 of 138
Defense
81.0
#3 of 126
DL
76.2
#44 of 138
67.6
#103 of 126
LB
72.0
#88 of 138
71.6
#60 of 126
DB
73.3
#53 of 138
Common opponents