CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 3:30 PM ET
#103Away
Boston College
0-0 · AVR 51.5
15
Final
#69Home
Cincinnati
0-0 · AVR 57.2
34
Forecast win probability
BC 22.0%78.0% CIN
Projected margin
CIN by 12.4
Projected total
56
80% outcome range
BC 8 to CIN 33
Win probability
CIN 78.0%
FinalBC 15 · CIN 34model had +12.4, off by 6.6

Current team profiles

Boston College
Cincinnati

When Boston College has the ball

Passing

CIN defense
Higher-ranked profile
BC offense
#114
CIN defense
#103
EPA comparison
0.07
#114
0.27
#103
Pass EPA

Rushing

CIN defense
Higher-ranked profile
BC offense
#100
CIN defense
#98
EPA comparison
0.03
#100
0.11
#98
Rush EPA

Drive success

CIN defense
Higher-ranked profile
BC offense
#114
CIN defense
#100
Success rates
39%
#114
43%
#100
Success rate
More metrics
0.00
#122
0.13
#98
EPA / play
1.25
#57
1.20
#57
Explosiveness
20%
#133
16%
#65
Havoc

When Cincinnati has the ball

Passing

CIN offense
Higher-ranked profile
BC defense
#69
CIN offense
#45
EPA comparison
0.14
#69
0.29
#45
Pass EPA

Rushing

CIN offense
Higher-ranked profile
BC defense
#52
CIN offense
#4
EPA comparison
0.01
#52
0.31
#4
Rush EPA

Drive success

CIN offense
Higher-ranked profile
BC defense
#52
CIN offense
#46
Success rates
39%
#52
46%
#46
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#49
0.29
#21
EPA / play
1.26
#88
1.35
#16
Explosiveness
18%
#31
12%
#26
Havoc

Current key players

Boston College
QBMason McKenzie
967 yds · 5 TD · 5 INT
67.1194/729
RBMekhi Dodd
32 yds · 0 TD · 16.0 YPC
78.0109/1044
LBAnthony Palano
43 tkl · 6.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
74.1
Coverage
72.3
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
29
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
73.8228/1796
WRLandon Wright
5 rec · 91 yds · 0 TD
72.7175/2069
DBMarcelous Townsend
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
67.0
Coverage
66.0
Targets allowed
0
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Missed tackles
0
70.9390/2969
DBCameron Martinez
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.4
Coverage
70.9
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
0
Yards allowed
0
Passer rating allowed
39.6
Missed tackles
0
70.6405/2969
Availability reports · 3
  • Bo MacCormack III · RBout · 2026-09-19

    MacCormack III is dealing with an shoulder injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Brady Clough · TEout · 2026-10-02

    Clough has been out of the lineup due to undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against SMU on Saturday.

  • Reed Swanson · WRprobable · 2026-09-24

    Swanson is managing with a Undisclosed injury , but it is expected to play against the Virginia Tech on Saturday.

Cincinnati
QBJC French IV
949 yds · 6 TD · 0 INT
83.253/729
RBCole Tabb
330 yds · 6 TD · 9.7 YPC
92.72/1044
CBZay Johnson
1 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
60.0
Coverage
80.1
Targets allowed
2
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
2
Passer rating allowed
56.3
Missed tackles
0
80.755/2969
LBAntwan Peek Jr.
38 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.2
Coverage
74.4
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
42
Missed tackles
3
Forced fumbles
2
76.5149/1796
SMJ Cannon
22 tkl · 3 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
66.8
Coverage
75.0
Targets allowed
22
Rec allowed
13
Yards allowed
194
Passer rating allowed
50.2
Missed tackles
5
75.4179/2969
LBJonathan Thompson
36 tkl · 4.5 TFL · 2.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.1
Coverage
70.0
Pressures
5
Pass-rush snaps
30
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
2
74.5197/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • DaMari Witherspoon · TEQues. · 2026-09-27

    Witherspoon is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Arizona on Saturday, October 3th.

  • Giyahni Kontosis · WRprobable · 2026-10-02

    Kontosis is dealing with an undisclosed injury, but he is expected to be active against Arizona on Saturday.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

BC
CIN
vs
Offense
67.1
#114 of 138
QB
83.2
#47 of 138
69.8
#120 of 138
RB
83.7
#17 of 138
69.2
#90 of 138
WR
68.8
#97 of 138
52.0
#137 of 138
TE
70.0
#65 of 138
59.6
#133 of 138
OL
76.4
#11 of 138
Defense
69.0
#116 of 138
DL
67.8
#124 of 138
67.1
#125 of 138
LB
73.7
#73 of 138
70.1
#96 of 138
DB
72.0
#70 of 138
Common opponents