AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 1 · Sat Sep 5 · 3:30 PM
#79Away
Boston College
0-0 · AVR 46.7
16p
#51Home
Cincinnati
0-0 · AVR 54.8
35p
BC 11%89% CIN
Spread
CIN -18.6
Total
52
Moneyline
BC+801CIN-801
Against the market
CIN +11.1line CIN -7.5

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← BC advantageevenCIN advantage →
BC throw
CIN coverage #55CIN pass rush #143
BC +10
BC run
CIN linebackers #76
BC +38
CIN throw
CIN protection #3
CIN +34
CIN run
CIN backs #64
CIN +24

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting IV
Evan Tengesdahl
vs
Josiah Griffin
LT · CIN
EDGE · BC
97.1
75.6
CIN +22
when BC runs
Evan Dickens
vs
Jonathan Thompson
RB · BC
MLB · CIN
79.5
72.1
BC +7
when CIN throws
Isaiah Johnson
vs
Kameron Howard
X · CIN
CB1 · BC
64.7
75.7
BC +11
when CIN runs
Zylan Perry
vs
Bodie Kahoun
RB · CIN
MLB · BC
62.9
75.5
BC +13
when BC throws
Dawson Pough
vs
Ty Goodwill
X · BC
CB1 · CIN
55.9
76.9
CIN +21
over the middle
Kaelan Chudzinski
vs
Antwan Peek Jr.
TE · BC
FS · CIN
63.6
65.6
dead even

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Boston College
RBEvan Dickens
79.525/514
DBKameron Howard
75.7148/1427
LBBodie Kahoun
75.5101/878
LBJustin Medlock
69.6151/878
TEKaelan Chudzinski
63.628/287
LBPalaie Faoa
57.4340/878
Cincinnati
STy Goodwill
76.9128/1427
DBMJ Cannon
74.9156/1427
LBJonathan Thompson
72.1122/878
SJasper Beeler
67.8287/1427
QBJC French IV
67.449/308
WRIsaiah Johnson
64.785/777

Projected margin

80% between -2 and 37
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCIN +18.6MKT95% interval: -11 to 4680% interval: -2 to 37-2+37BC wins 11%CIN wins 89%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CIN 35–14 BCCIN 32–39 BC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCIN 35–35 BC neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCIN 39–32 BC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCIN 42–28 BC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCIN 46–25 BC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCIN 49–21 BC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCIN 53–18 BC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCIN 56–14 BC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCIN 60–11 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCIN 28–35 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 32–32 BC neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCIN 35–28 BC neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCIN 39–25 BC neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCIN 42–21 BC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCIN 46–18 BC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCIN 49–14 BC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCIN 53–11 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCIN 56–7 BC neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCIN 25–32 BC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCIN 28–28 BC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCIN 32–25 BC neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCIN 35–21 BC neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCIN 39–18 BC neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesCIN 42–14 BC neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCIN 46–11 BC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCIN 49–7 BC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 53–4 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 21–28 BC neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCIN 25–25 BC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCIN 28–21 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCIN 32–18 BC neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCIN 35–14 BC neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesCIN 39–11 BC neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCIN 42–7 BC neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCIN 46–4 BC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 49–0 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 18–25 BC neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 21–21 BC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCIN 25–18 BC neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCIN 28–14 BC neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCIN 32–11 BC neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCIN 35–7 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCIN 39–4 BC neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCIN 42–0 BC neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)CIN 14–21 BC neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCIN 18–18 BC neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCIN 21–14 BC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCIN 25–11 BC neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCIN 28–7 BC neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 32–4 BC neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCIN 35–0 BC neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)CIN 11–18 BC neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 14–14 BC neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 18–11 BC neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCIN 21–7 BC neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 25–4 BC neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCIN 28–0 BC neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalBC +7CIN +7CIN +21CIN +35CIN +49margin →