CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 10:30 PM ET
#150Away
Northern Illinois
0-2 · AVR 45.2
17
Final
#35Home
Arizona
1-1 · AVR 67.8
42
Forecast win probability
NIU 6.6%93.5% ARIZ
Projected margin
ARIZ by 22.4
Projected total
45
80% outcome range
ARIZ 3 to ARIZ 41
Win probability
ARIZ 93.5%
FinalNIU 17 · ARIZ 42model had +22.4, off by 2.6

Current team profiles

Northern Illinois
Arizona

When Northern Illinois has the ball

Passing

ARIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU offense
#123
ARIZ defense
#17
EPA comparison
0.00
#123
-0.01
#17
Pass EPA

Rushing

ARIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU offense
#137
ARIZ defense
#47
EPA comparison
-0.13
#137
0.00
#47
Rush EPA

Drive success

ARIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU offense
#125
ARIZ defense
#27
Success rates
37%
#125
35%
#27
Success rate
More metrics
-0.12
#135
-0.04
#28
EPA / play
1.14
#110
1.42
#131
Explosiveness
17%
#112
16%
#63
Havoc

When Arizona has the ball

Passing

ARIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU defense
#89
ARIZ offense
#28
EPA comparison
0.20
#89
0.39
#28
Pass EPA

Rushing

ARIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU defense
#131
ARIZ offense
#61
EPA comparison
0.23
#131
0.13
#61
Rush EPA

Drive success

ARIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
NIU defense
#131
ARIZ offense
#21
Success rates
49%
#131
49%
#21
Success rate
More metrics
0.20
#121
0.24
#32
EPA / play
1.20
#54
1.22
#77
Explosiveness
10%
#136
14%
#52
Havoc

Current key players

Northern Illinois
QBBrady Davidson
27 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
69.3166/729
DBAaron Warren
13 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
80.5
Coverage
82.6
Targets allowed
6
Rec allowed
4
Yards allowed
33
Passer rating allowed
80.6
Missed tackles
3
82.839/2969
LBJashawn Nelson
— tkl · — TFL · — sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.3
Coverage
74.8
Pressures
2
Pass-rush snaps
27
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
79.195/1796
RBJaidaun Cranford
59 yds · 0 TD · 7.4 YPC
74.6185/1044
CBYassine Falke
13 tkl · 0 PD · 3 INT
Player detail
Run defense
86.1
Coverage
65.8
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
69
Passer rating allowed
30.7
Missed tackles
3
70.7404/2969
WRDeAree Rogers
31 rec · 252 yds · 2 TD
69.9273/2069
Availability reports · 2
  • Glen Weber · TEQues. · 2026-10-11

    Weber is battling with an undisclosed injury, and his status is unknown against Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Da'sean Howard · RBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Howard is suffering with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Cowboys on Saturday, October 17th.

Arizona
QBNoah Fifita
1398 yds · 13 TD · 3 INT
83.452/729
LBDash Fifita
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
56.6
Coverage
71.5
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
22
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
84.743/1796
CBJay'Vion Cole
17 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.0
Coverage
76.6
Targets allowed
27
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
105
Passer rating allowed
73.8
Missed tackles
2
78.390/2969
WRGiovanni Richardson
15 rec · 170 yds · 0 TD
77.089/2069
WRTre Spivey
22 rec · 314 yds · 4 TD
76.1107/2069
RBIsmail Mahdi
72 yds · 0 TD · 6.0 YPC
74.7180/1044
Availability reports · 7
  • Tre Spivey · WRout · 2026-10-04

    Spivey has been out of commission due to ankle injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Daylen Austin · Sout · 2026-09-25

    Austin has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury.

  • Giovanni Richardson · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Richardson is managing with an hamstring injury, and it is undetermined if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cole Rusk · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Rusk is laid up with an lower leg injury, and it is unknown if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cornelius Warren III · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Warren III is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Max Harris · LBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Harris is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Scotty Brennan · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Brennan is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

NIU
ARIZ
vs
Offense
69.3
#104 of 138
QB
83.4
#46 of 138
72.5
#103 of 138
RB
74.2
#80 of 138
67.4
#117 of 138
WR
74.4
#39 of 138
65.0
#90 of 138
TE
63.4
#101 of 138
64.8
#97 of 138
OL
75.2
#17 of 138
Defense
64.5
#137 of 138
DL
72.0
#86 of 138
69.3
#109 of 138
LB
74.8
#61 of 138
69.9
#100 of 138
DB
70.9
#84 of 138
Common opponents