AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sun Sep 20 · 2:30 AM
#134Away
Northern Illinois
0-0 · AVR 24.8
9p
#26Home
Arizona
0-0 · AVR 66.2
42p
NIU 1%99% ARIZ
Spread
ARIZ -32.5
Total
50
Moneyline
NIU—ARIZ—
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← NIU advantageevenARIZ advantage →
NIU throw
NIU protection #66ARIZ coverage #5
ARIZ +54
NIU run
ARIZ front #91ARIZ linebackers #5
ARIZ +29
ARIZ throw
ARIZ +51
ARIZ run
ARIZ +67

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when NIU throws
DeAree Rogers
vs
Jay'Vion Cole
X · NIU
CB1 · ARIZ
54.9
101.6
ARIZ +47
when NIU runs
Telly Johnson Jr.
vs
Chase Kennedy
RB · NIU
MLB · ARIZ
56.7
84.0
ARIZ +27
off the edge· hunting Fifita
Tristan Bounds
vs
Fawzy Omotoso
LT · ARIZ
EDGE · NIU
76.2
40.7
ARIZ +36
when ARIZ throws
Giovanni Richardson
vs
Malik Armstrong
X · ARIZ
CB1 · NIU
52.5
59.3
NIU +7
over the middle
Jason Fowler
vs
Johno Price
TE · NIU
FS · ARIZ
34.5
75.7
ARIZ +41
off the edge· hunting Macon
Jacob Welch
vs
Julian Savaiinaea
LT · NIU
EDGE · ARIZ
45.0
60.6
ARIZ +16

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Northern Illinois
SMalik Armstrong
59.3501/1427
RBTelly Johnson Jr.
56.7148/514
WRDeAree Rogers
54.9181/777
CBRomelo Walker
51.8708/1427
QBJalen Macon
39.4284/308
WRRickey Taylor Jr.
38.8654/777
Arizona
CBJay'Vion Cole
101.62/1427
LBChase Kennedy
84.026/878
LBEverett Roussaw Jr.
84.027/878
SGavin Hunter
83.362/1427
SDaylen Austin
75.9141/1427
TECole Rusk
69.212/287

Projected margin

80% between 15 and 50
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARIZ +32.595% interval: 8.6 to 56.480% interval: 15.1 to 49.9+15+50NIU wins 1%ARIZ wins 99%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARIZ 42–7 NIUARIZ 39–32 NIU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesARIZ 42–28 NIU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesARIZ 46–25 NIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARIZ 49–21 NIU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesARIZ 53–18 NIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARIZ 56–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesARIZ 60–11 NIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARIZ 63–7 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 67–4 NIU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesARIZ 35–28 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 39–25 NIU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesARIZ 42–21 NIU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesARIZ 46–18 NIU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARIZ 49–14 NIU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesARIZ 53–11 NIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARIZ 56–7 NIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARIZ 60–4 NIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARIZ 63–0 NIU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesARIZ 32–25 NIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 35–21 NIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARIZ 39–18 NIU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesARIZ 42–14 NIU neighborhood · ~3.7% of outcomesARIZ 46–11 NIU neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesARIZ 49–7 NIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesARIZ 53–4 NIU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesARIZ 56–0 NIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)ARIZ 28–21 NIU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesARIZ 32–18 NIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARIZ 35–14 NIU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesARIZ 39–11 NIU neighborhood · ~3.8% of outcomesARIZ 42–7 NIU neighborhood · ~3.9% of outcomesARIZ 46–4 NIU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesARIZ 49–0 NIU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ARIZ 25–18 NIU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesARIZ 28–14 NIU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesARIZ 32–11 NIU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesARIZ 35–7 NIU neighborhood · ~3.5% of outcomesARIZ 39–4 NIU neighborhood · ~3.6% of outcomesARIZ 42–0 NIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ARIZ 21–14 NIU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesARIZ 25–11 NIU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesARIZ 28–7 NIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesARIZ 32–4 NIU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesARIZ 35–0 NIU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)ARIZ 18–11 NIU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesARIZ 21–7 NIU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesARIZ 25–4 NIU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesARIZ 28–0 NIU neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)70635649423528totalARIZ +7ARIZ +21ARIZ +35ARIZ +49ARIZ +63margin →