AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 PM
#91Away
Miami (OH)
0-0 · AVR 43.0
21p
#51Home
Cincinnati
0-0 · AVR 54.8
34p
M-OH 20%80% CIN
Spread
CIN -12.2
Total
55
Moneyline
M-OH+404CIN-404
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← M-OH advantageevenCIN advantage →
M-OH throw
CIN coverage #55CIN pass rush #143
CIN +13
M-OH run
M-OH backs #143CIN linebackers #76
even
CIN throw
CIN protection #3
M-OH +10
CIN run
CIN backs #64
even

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting IV
Evan Tengesdahl
vs
Bai Jobe
LT · CIN
EDGE · M-OH
97.1
71.1
CIN +26
when CIN throws
Isaiah Johnson
vs
Ben Minich
X · CIN
CB1 · M-OH
64.7
88.7
M-OH +24
when CIN runs
Zylan Perry
vs
Malcolm McCain
RB · CIN
MLB · M-OH
62.9
82.1
M-OH +19
over the middle
Gavin Grover
vs
Jermaine Agee
TE · CIN
FS · M-OH
61.5
76.7
M-OH +15
when M-OH throws
Leo Scheidler
vs
Ty Goodwill
X · M-OH
CB1 · CIN
55.3
76.9
CIN +22
over the middle
Christian Ross
vs
Antwan Peek Jr.
TE · M-OH
FS · CIN
58.9
65.6
CIN +7

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Miami (OH)
DBBen Minich
88.719/1427
DBAmariyun Knighten
84.451/1427
LBMalcolm McCain
82.142/878
DBJosh Ringer
81.378/1427
LBLuke Myers
76.492/878
TEChristian Ross
58.965/287
Cincinnati
STy Goodwill
76.9128/1427
DBMJ Cannon
74.9156/1427
LBJonathan Thompson
72.1122/878
SJasper Beeler
67.8287/1427
QBJC French IV
67.449/308
WRIsaiah Johnson
64.785/777

Projected margin

80% between -5 and 30
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKCIN +12.295% interval: -11.7 to 36.180% interval: -5.2 to 29.6-5+30M-OH wins 20%CIN wins 80%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ CIN 35–21 M-OHCIN 32–46 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 35–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 39–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCIN 42–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCIN 46–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesCIN 49–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesCIN 53–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCIN 56–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 60–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCIN 28–42 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCIN 32–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesCIN 35–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 39–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesCIN 42–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 46–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCIN 49–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesCIN 53–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesCIN 56–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesCIN 25–39 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 28–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCIN 32–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCIN 35–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesCIN 39–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCIN 42–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesCIN 46–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCIN 49–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 53–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 21–35 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCIN 25–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCIN 28–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCIN 32–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCIN 35–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesCIN 39–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesCIN 42–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 46–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCIN 49–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 18–32 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesCIN 21–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesCIN 25–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCIN 28–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesCIN 32–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesCIN 35–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 39–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesCIN 42–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCIN 46–4 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 14–28 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesCIN 18–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesCIN 21–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesCIN 25–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesCIN 28–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesCIN 32–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesCIN 35–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCIN 39–4 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesCIN 42–0 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesCIN 11–25 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesCIN 14–21 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesCIN 18–18 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesCIN 21–14 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesCIN 25–11 M-OH neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesCIN 28–7 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesCIN 32–4 M-OH neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesCIN 35–0 M-OH neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalM-OH +14PKCIN +14CIN +28CIN +42margin →