AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:30 PM
#92Away
Utah State
0-0 · AVR 42.3
16p
#16Home
Utah
0-0 · AVR 71.8
42p
USU 4%96% UTAH
Spread
UTAH -25.5
Total
58
Moneyline
USU+2327UTAH-2327
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← USU advantageevenUTAH advantage →
USU throw
USU protection #88
UTAH +28
USU run
UTAH +14
UTAH throw
UTAH +45
UTAH run
UTAH +50

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when UTAH throws
Braden Pegan
vs
Chika Ebunoha
X · UTAH
CB1 · USU
82.5
71.6
UTAH +11
when UTAH runs
Wayshawn Parker
vs
John Miller
RB · UTAH
MLB · USU
84.7
66.6
UTAH +18
off the edge· hunting Dampier
Zereoue Williams
vs
Tyree Morris
LT · UTAH
EDGE · USU
87.1
61.9
UTAH +25
when USU throws
Kahanu Davis
vs
Jackson Bennee
X · USU
CB1 · UTAH
53.2
90.2
UTAH +37
when USU runs
Javen Jacobs
vs
Johnathan Hall
RB · USU
MLB · UTAH
71.1
65.5
USU +6
off the edge· hunting Barnes
Elia Migao
vs
Ethan Day
LT · USU
EDGE · UTAH
41.1
88.6
UTAH +47

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Utah State
QBBryson Barnes
71.737/308
SChika Ebunoha
71.6199/1427
RBJaven Jacobs
71.147/514
LBJohn Miller
66.6192/878
SIke Larsen
66.6317/1427
LBBronson Olevao Jr.
65.1210/878
Utah
SJackson Bennee
90.211/1427
RBWayshawn Parker
84.77/514
QBDevon Dampier
83.813/308
WRBraden Pegan
82.517/777
CBElijah Reed
81.083/1427
CBRock Caldwell
77.9116/1427

also out — Kingston Stroshine (LB)

Projected margin

80% between 8 and 43
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKUTAH +25.595% interval: 1.6 to 49.480% interval: 8.1 to 42.9+8+43USU wins 4%UTAH wins 96%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ UTAH 42–14 USUUTAH 39–39 USU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesUTAH 42–35 USU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesUTAH 46–32 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTAH 49–28 USU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTAH 53–25 USU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTAH 56–21 USU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 60–18 USU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesUTAH 63–14 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTAH 67–11 USU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTAH 35–35 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTAH 39–32 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTAH 42–28 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTAH 46–25 USU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesUTAH 49–21 USU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesUTAH 53–18 USU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTAH 56–14 USU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTAH 60–11 USU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTAH 63–7 USU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesUTAH 32–32 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTAH 35–28 USU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTAH 39–25 USU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTAH 42–21 USU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTAH 46–18 USU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUTAH 49–14 USU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTAH 53–11 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTAH 56–7 USU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTAH 60–4 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 28–28 USU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesUTAH 32–25 USU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesUTAH 35–21 USU neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesUTAH 39–18 USU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesUTAH 42–14 USU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesUTAH 46–11 USU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesUTAH 49–7 USU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesUTAH 53–4 USU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesUTAH 56–0 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 25–25 USU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesUTAH 28–21 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesUTAH 32–18 USU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesUTAH 35–14 USU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesUTAH 39–11 USU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesUTAH 42–7 USU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTAH 46–4 USU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesUTAH 49–0 USU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)UTAH 21–21 USU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesUTAH 25–18 USU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesUTAH 28–14 USU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 32–11 USU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesUTAH 35–7 USU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesUTAH 39–4 USU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesUTAH 42–0 USU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)UTAH 18–18 USU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesUTAH 21–14 USU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesUTAH 25–11 USU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesUTAH 28–7 USU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 32–4 USU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesUTAH 35–0 USU neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalPKUTAH +14UTAH +28UTAH +42UTAH +56margin →