AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 11:00 PM
Away
Murray State
—
20p
#97Home
Oklahoma State
0-0 · AVR 40.7
37p
MUR 11%89% OKST
Spread
OKST -17.3
Total
57
Moneyline
MUR+819OKST-819
Margin σ
14.1

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Oklahoma State
RBCaleb Hawkins
88.32/514
QBDrew Mestemaker
86.39/308
WRWyatt Young
79.722/777
LBEthan Wesloski
76.095/878
CBKollin Lewis
68.8265/1427
SChristian Bodnar
68.1279/1427

Projected margin

80% between 1 and 34
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKOKST +17.395% interval: -5.7 to 40.380% interval: 0.6 to 34+1+34MUR wins 11%OKST wins 89%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ OKST 35–21 MUROKST 32–46 MUR neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesOKST 35–42 MUR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOKST 39–39 MUR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOKST 42–35 MUR neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesOKST 46–32 MUR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOKST 49–28 MUR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 53–25 MUR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOKST 56–21 MUR neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesOKST 60–18 MUR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOKST 28–42 MUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOKST 32–39 MUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOKST 35–35 MUR neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesOKST 39–32 MUR neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesOKST 42–28 MUR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOKST 46–25 MUR neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesOKST 49–21 MUR neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesOKST 53–18 MUR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOKST 56–14 MUR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOKST 25–39 MUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOKST 28–35 MUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 32–32 MUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 35–28 MUR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOKST 39–25 MUR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOKST 42–21 MUR neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesOKST 46–18 MUR neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesOKST 49–14 MUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOKST 53–11 MUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOKST 21–35 MUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOKST 25–32 MUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 28–28 MUR neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesOKST 32–25 MUR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOKST 35–21 MUR neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOKST 39–18 MUR neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesOKST 42–14 MUR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOKST 46–11 MUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 49–7 MUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 18–32 MUR neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesOKST 21–28 MUR neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesOKST 25–25 MUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 28–21 MUR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOKST 32–18 MUR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOKST 35–14 MUR neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesOKST 39–11 MUR neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesOKST 42–7 MUR neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesOKST 46–4 MUR neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesOKST 14–28 MUR neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesOKST 18–25 MUR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOKST 21–21 MUR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOKST 25–18 MUR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOKST 28–14 MUR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOKST 32–11 MUR neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesOKST 35–7 MUR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOKST 39–4 MUR neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesOKST 42–0 MUR neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesOKST 11–25 MUR neighborhood · ~0.2% of outcomesOKST 14–21 MUR neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesOKST 18–18 MUR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesOKST 21–14 MUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 25–11 MUR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOKST 28–7 MUR neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesOKST 32–4 MUR neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesOKST 35–0 MUR neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMUR +14PKOKST +14OKST +28OKST +42margin →