CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 3 · Sat Sep 19 · 7:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
MUR 0.1%99.9% OKST
Projected margin
OKST by 53.3
Projected total
67
80% outcome range
OKST 33 to OKST 74
Win probability
OKST 99.9%
FinalMUR 0 · OKST 59model had +53.3, off by 5.7

Current team profiles

Murray State
Oklahoma State

When Murray State has the ball

Passing

No comparison
MUR offense
—
OKST defense
#41
EPA comparison
—
0.07
#41
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
MUR offense
—
OKST defense
#47
EPA comparison
—
0.00
#47
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
MUR offense
#58
OKST defense
#54
Success rates
44%
#58
39%
#54
Success rate
More metrics
0.02
#110
0.02
#52
EPA / play
0.20
#87
1.20
#57
Explosiveness
—
15%
#81
Havoc

When Oklahoma State has the ball

Passing

No comparison
MUR defense
—
OKST offense
#31
EPA comparison
—
0.37
#31
Pass EPA

Rushing

No comparison
MUR defense
—
OKST offense
#93
EPA comparison
—
0.04
#93
Rush EPA

Drive success

No comparison
MUR defense
#105
OKST offense
#18
Success rates
47%
#105
50%
#18
Success rate
More metrics
0.18
#95
0.17
#63
EPA / play
0.21
#81
1.09
#128
Explosiveness
—
10%
#9
Havoc

Current key players

Murray State
KCooper Ford
0 punts · 0.0 avg
80.56/416
RBTyrell Campbell
279 yds · 2 TD · 5.4 YPC
80.032/631
DBDax Pregeant
9 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.3
Coverage
77.4
Targets allowed
1
Rec allowed
1
Yards allowed
2
Passer rating allowed
79.2
Missed tackles
1
76.0111/1765
WRJaxon Potter
21 rec · 170 yds · 2 TD
75.070/1229
LBConlee Crossno
20 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
69.7
Coverage
73.2
Pressures
0
Pass-rush snaps
2
Missed tackles
2
Forced fumbles
1
73.5134/1054
RBMykel Allen
234 yds · 3 TD · 4.0 YPC
73.4112/631
Oklahoma State
QBDrew Mestemaker
1271 yds · 11 TD · 5 INT
83.155/729
WRWyatt Young
22 rec · 410 yds · 3 TD
84.026/2069
RBKD Jones
54 yds · 1 TD · 7.7 YPC
83.744/1044
LBEthan Wesloski
36 tkl · 1.0 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
73.6
Coverage
81.3
Pressures
4
Pass-rush snaps
17
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
79.392/1796
CBMo Horn
10 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
61.7
Coverage
82.3
Targets allowed
11
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
66
Passer rating allowed
118.0
Missed tackles
0
78.192/2969
LBJack Puckett
0 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
61.7
Coverage
60.7
Missed tackles
0
Forced fumbles
0
75.8161/1796
Availability reports · 2
  • Jacob Sexton · OGout · 2026-10-10

    Sexton is dealing with a leg injury, and there is no timetable for return.

  • Oscar Hammond · TEout · 2026-09-20

    Hammond is hobbled by an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

Position units

Position-unit comparison

MUR
OKST
vs
Offense
61.5
#103 of 125
QB
83.1
#48 of 138
76.7
#26 of 126
RB
79.5
#38 of 138
70.2
#54 of 126
WR
76.0
#30 of 138
60.5
#88 of 124
TE
60.4
#115 of 138
62.0
#95 of 125
OL
69.7
#56 of 138
Defense
71.0
#60 of 126
DL
75.6
#49 of 138
69.8
#80 of 126
LB
76.0
#51 of 138
69.0
#93 of 126
DB
70.7
#88 of 138
Common opponents