AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 4 · Sat Sep 26 · 11:30 PM
#26Away
Arizona
0-0 · AVR 66.2
33p
#85Home
Washington State
0-0 · AVR 45.3
20p
ARIZ 81%19% WSU
Spread
ARIZ -13.1
Total
53
Moneyline
ARIZ-425WSU+425
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARIZ advantageevenWSU advantage →
ARIZ throw
ARIZ +22
ARIZ run
ARIZ +23
WSU throw
ARIZ coverage #5ARIZ pass rush #91
ARIZ +55
WSU run
WSU backs #73ARIZ front #91
ARIZ +38

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Fifita
Tristan Bounds
vs
Paul Hutson III
LT · ARIZ
EDGE · WSU
76.2
84.5
WSU +8
when WSU throws
Tony Freeman
vs
Jay'Vion Cole
X · WSU
CB1 · ARIZ
50.2
101.6
ARIZ +51
when WSU runs
Kirby Vorhees
vs
Chase Kennedy
RB · WSU
MLB · ARIZ
63.2
84.0
ARIZ +21
when ARIZ runs
Kedrick Reescano
vs
DJ Warner
RB · ARIZ
MLB · WSU
59.7
69.6
WSU +10
over the middle
Trey Leckner
vs
Johno Price
TE · WSU
FS · ARIZ
47.8
75.7
ARIZ +28
over the middle
Cole Rusk
vs
Kayo Patu
TE · ARIZ
FS · WSU
69.2
52.6
ARIZ +17

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arizona
CBJay'Vion Cole
101.62/1427
LBChase Kennedy
84.026/878
LBEverett Roussaw Jr.
84.027/878
SGavin Hunter
83.362/1427
SDaylen Austin
75.9141/1427
TECole Rusk
69.212/287
Washington State
LBDJ Warner
69.6153/878
RBKirby Vorhees
63.283/514
SJack Bal
62.4420/1427
CBJalil Tucker
54.9627/1427
CBJamarey Smith
53.0678/1427
WRTony Freeman
50.2307/777

also out — T. Leckner (TE), Hudson Cedarland (TE), J. Dugger (QB)

Projected margin

80% between -31 and 4
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKARIZ +13.195% interval: -37 to 10.880% interval: -30.5 to 4.3-30+4ARIZ wins 81%WSU wins 19%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ARIZ 35–21 WSUWSU 18–60 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesWSU 21–56 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWSU 25–53 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWSU 28–49 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWSU 32–46 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWSU 35–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWSU 39–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWSU 42–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWSU 46–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWSU 14–56 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWSU 18–53 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWSU 21–49 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesWSU 25–46 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWSU 28–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWSU 32–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWSU 35–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesWSU 39–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWSU 42–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWSU 11–53 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWSU 14–49 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWSU 18–46 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWSU 21–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWSU 25–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWSU 28–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesWSU 32–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWSU 35–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWSU 39–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWSU 7–49 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWSU 11–46 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWSU 14–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWSU 18–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWSU 21–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesWSU 25–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesWSU 28–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesWSU 32–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWSU 35–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWSU 4–46 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesWSU 7–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesWSU 11–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWSU 14–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesWSU 18–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesWSU 21–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWSU 25–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWSU 28–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesWSU 32–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesWSU 0–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesWSU 4–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesWSU 7–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesWSU 11–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesWSU 14–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesWSU 18–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesWSU 21–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesWSU 25–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesWSU 28–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)WSU 0–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesWSU 4–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesWSU 7–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesWSU 11–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesWSU 14–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesWSU 18–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesWSU 21–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesWSU 25–11 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomes77706356494235totalARIZ +42ARIZ +28ARIZ +14PKWSU +14margin →