AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 4:00 AM
#124Away
Middle Tennessee
0-0 · AVR 30.6
17p
#50Home
Kansas
0-0 · AVR 55.4
38p
MTSU 8%92% KU
Spread
KU -20.5
Total
54
Moneyline
MTSU+1230KU-1230
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← MTSU advantageevenKU advantage →
MTSU throw
KU pass rush #42
KU +29
MTSU run
KU +47
KU throw
KU QB #95KU protection #1
KU +45
KU run
KU backs #63
KU +45

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Marshall
James Livingston
vs
Justin Bodford
LT · KU
EDGE · MTSU
96.9
79.4
KU +18
when KU runs
Yasin Willis
vs
Reggie Johnson
RB · KU
MLB · MTSU
59.9
79.4
MTSU +20
when MTSU runs
Antonio Martin
vs
Jibreel Al-Amin
RB · MTSU
MLB · KU
51.1
78.3
KU +27
when KU throws
Cam Pickett
vs
James Johnson
X · KU
CB1 · MTSU
68.5
49.4
KU +19
when MTSU throws
AJ Jones
vs
Jalen Todd
X · MTSU
CB1 · KU
48.1
67.8
KU +20
off the edge· hunting Anderson-Lofton
Reese Tripp
vs
Blake Herold
LT · MTSU
EDGE · KU
32.3
82.8
KU +50

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Middle Tennessee
LBReggie Johnson
79.462/878
LBKorey Smith
56.1370/878
RBAntonio Martin
51.1261/514
SJames Johnson
49.4784/1427
WRAJ Jones
48.1370/777
WRCam'ron Lacy
46.6423/777
Kansas
LBJibreel Al-Amin
78.376/878
LBTrey Lathan
75.4103/878
WRCam Pickettquestionable
68.561/777
CBJalen Todd
67.8284/1427
SCorey Gordon
66.4323/1427
TELeyton Cure
60.053/287

also out — J. Thurman (RB), Tre'von McAlpine (DL)

Projected margin

80% between 3 and 38
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKKU +20.595% interval: -3.4 to 44.480% interval: 3.2 to 37.9+3+38MTSU wins 8%KU wins 92%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ KU 39–18 MTSUKU 35–42 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 39–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesKU 42–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesKU 46–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 49–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 53–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKU 56–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKU 60–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesKU 63–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesKU 32–39 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 35–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesKU 39–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKU 42–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKU 46–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKU 49–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKU 53–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesKU 56–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKU 60–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 28–35 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 32–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKU 35–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 39–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKU 42–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesKU 46–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesKU 49–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 53–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 56–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 25–32 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 28–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesKU 32–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKU 35–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesKU 39–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesKU 42–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKU 46–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 49–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKU 53–4 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 21–28 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesKU 25–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesKU 28–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesKU 32–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesKU 35–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesKU 39–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKU 42–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesKU 46–4 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 49–0 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 18–25 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesKU 21–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesKU 25–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesKU 28–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesKU 32–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesKU 35–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesKU 39–4 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesKU 42–0 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)KU 14–21 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesKU 18–18 MTSU neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesKU 21–14 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesKU 25–11 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 28–7 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesKU 32–4 MTSU neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesKU 35–0 MTSU neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesimpossible (total < margin)impossible (total < margin)77706356494235totalMTSU +7KU +7KU +21KU +35KU +49margin →