Passing
KU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU offense
- #88
- KU defense
- #71
EPA comparison
0.14
#88
0.15
#71
Pass EPA
All gamesWeek 5 · Sat Oct 3 · 12:00 PM ET
Forecast win probability
MTSU 15.8%84.2% KU
- Projected margin
- KU by 13.9
- Projected total
- 51
- 80% outcome range
- MTSU 5 to KU 34
- Win probability
- KU 84.2%
FinalMTSU 0 · KU 55model had +13.9, off by 41.1
Current team profiles
Middle TennesseeKansasWhen Middle Tennessee has the ball
Rushing
KU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU offense
- #85
- KU defense
- #27
EPA comparison
0.07
#85
-0.07
#27
Rush EPA
Drive success
KU defense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU offense
- #118
- KU defense
- #20
Success rates
39%
#118
35%
#20
Success rate
More metrics
0.10
#90
-0.03
#30
EPA / play
1.20
#91
1.27
#92
Explosiveness
14%
#67
20%
#19
Havoc
When Kansas has the ball
Passing
KU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU defense
- #84
- KU offense
- #55
EPA comparison
0.19
#84
0.27
#55
Pass EPA
Rushing
KU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU defense
- #132
- KU offense
- #19
EPA comparison
0.24
#132
0.24
#19
Rush EPA
Drive success
KU offense
Higher-ranked profile
- MTSU defense
- #135
- KU offense
- #28
Success rates
51%
#135
48%
#28
Success rate
More metrics
0.21
#124
0.25
#28
EPA / play
1.12
#27
1.34
#20
Explosiveness
10%
#138
14%
#60
Havoc
Current key players
Middle TennesseeQBRoman Gagliano
913 yds · 8 TD · 1 INT
63.0241/729
WRCam'ron Lacy
31 rec · 335 yds · 4 TD
82.635/2069
CBRicky Lee
3 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 56.0
- Coverage
- 79.0
- Targets allowed
- 4
- Rec allowed
- 3
- Yards allowed
- 40
- Passer rating allowed
- 106.3
- Missed tackles
- 0
76.7138/2969
CBJackson Lowe
31 tkl · 3 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 58.9
- Coverage
- 68.3
- Targets allowed
- 24
- Rec allowed
- 18
- Yards allowed
- 203
- Passer rating allowed
- 127.6
- Missed tackles
- 6
73.7247/2969
CBJason Hardy
11 tkl · 1 PD · 1 INT
Player detail
- Run defense
- 57.3
- Coverage
- 73.0
- Targets allowed
- 13
- Rec allowed
- 6
- Yards allowed
- 84
- Passer rating allowed
- 35.4
- Missed tackles
- 2
69.7464/2969
WRZiyon Butler
3 rec · 59 yds · 0 TD
67.8351/2069
KansasQBChase Jenkins
65 yds · 0 TD · 0 INT
93.31/729
LBJaron Willis
2 tkl · 0.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 81.8
- Coverage
- 71.6
- Missed tackles
- 0
- Forced fumbles
- 0
86.330/1796
WRNik McMillan
14 rec · 256 yds · 2 TD
85.324/2069
LBTrey Lathan
22 tkl · 2.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
- Run defense
- 76.1
- Coverage
- 83.7
- Pressures
- 5
- Pass-rush snaps
- 9
- Missed tackles
- 2
- Forced fumbles
- 0
83.554/1796
TEJack Utz
— rec · — yds · — TD
Player detail
- Run blocking
- 84.2
- Penalties
- 0
77.934/1017
RBJalen Dupree
103 yds · 2 TD · 4.9 YPC
77.8120/1044
Availability reports · 7
- Cole Ballard · QBout · 2026-10-02
Ballard is dealing with a shoulder injury, and there is no timetable for return.
- Yasin Willis · RBout · 2026-09-28
Willis has been out of the lineup with an foot injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Justin Thurman · RBout · 2026-08-11
Thurman has been sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.
- Kory Amachree · RBout · 2026-10-02
Amachree is expected to miss the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury.
- Jaylen Mason · QBQues. · 2026-10-11
Mason is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is uncertain if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
- Jailen Butler · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Butler exited the game with an undisclosed injury, and it is yet to be established if he will suit up against Wildcats on Saturday, October
- Carter Moses · TEQues. · 2026-10-11
Moses is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Wildcats on Saturday, October 17th.
Position units
Position-unit comparison
MTSUMiddle Tennessee
KUKansas
vs
Offense
63.0
#125 of 138
QB
Quarterback
93.3
#1 of 138
64.2
#136 of 138
RB
Running backs
76.8
#57 of 138
70.9
#74 of 138
WR
Receivers
78.9
#15 of 138
58.2
#131 of 138
TE
Tight ends
77.9
#30 of 138
63.6
#109 of 138
OL
Offensive line
77.5
#8 of 138
Defense
70.4
#101 of 138
DL
Defensive line
89.4
#1 of 138
63.6
#136 of 138
LB
Linebackers
83.2
#10 of 138
71.4
#76 of 138
DB
Secondary
72.4
#66 of 138