AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 4:00 AM
#4Away
Notre Dame
0-0 · AVR 79.4
32p
#19Home
BYU
0-0 · AVR 69.1
24p
ND 70%30% BYU
Spread
ND -7.8
Total
57
Moneyline
ND-235BYU+235
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ND advantageevenBYU advantage →
ND throw
ND QB #3ND protection #109
even
ND run
BYU +41
BYU throw
BYU WR #81
ND +16
BYU run
ND +7

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
off the edge· hunting Bachmeier
Bruce Mitchell
vs
Boubacar Traore
LT · BYU
EDGE · ND
88.8
88.4
dead even
when BYU runs
LJ Martin
vs
Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
RB · BYU
MLB · ND
84.9
86.5
dead even
when ND throws
Jordan Faison
vs
Evan Johnson
X · ND
CB1 · BYU
74.7
85.7
BYU +11
over the middle
Walker Lyons
vs
Luke Talich
TE · BYU
FS · ND
68.0
86.9
ND +19
when BYU throws
Reggie Frischknecht
vs
Leonard Moore
X · BYU
CB1 · ND
52.0
101.6
ND +50
when ND runs
Aneyas Williams
vs
Isaiah Glasker
RB · ND
MLB · BYU
56.9
84.3
BYU +27

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Notre Dame
CBLeonard Moore
101.61/1427
QBCJ Carrprobable
95.13/308
SBrauntae Johnson
91.58/1427
SAdon Shuler
86.929/1427
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asaprobable
86.516/878
LBDrayk Bowen
82.738/878

also out — Charles Jagusah, Player 2, Matty Augustine (OL), Notre Dame reserve, Quincy Porter (WR), Decision Means Losing, Jackson Hill (RB), Notre Dame football 2027 commit +2 more

BYU
QBBear Bachmeier
96.72/308
CBEvan Johnson
85.737/1427
SFaletau Satualaprobable
85.640/1427
RBLJ Martin
84.96/514
LBIsaiah Glasker
84.325/878
CBTherrian Alexander III
79.792/1427

Projected margin

80% between -25 and 10
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKND +7.895% interval: -31.7 to 16.180% interval: -25.2 to 9.6-25+10ND wins 70%BYU wins 30%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ ND 32–25 BYUBYU 21–56 ND neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 25–53 ND neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBYU 28–49 ND neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBYU 32–46 ND neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 35–42 ND neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBYU 39–39 ND neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 42–35 ND neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBYU 46–32 ND neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBYU 49–28 ND neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBYU 18–53 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 21–49 ND neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBYU 25–46 ND neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 28–42 ND neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBYU 32–39 ND neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBYU 35–35 ND neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBYU 39–32 ND neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBYU 42–28 ND neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBYU 46–25 ND neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 14–49 ND neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBYU 18–46 ND neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 21–42 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBYU 25–39 ND neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBYU 28–35 ND neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBYU 32–32 ND neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBYU 35–28 ND neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 39–25 ND neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBYU 42–21 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 11–46 ND neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBYU 14–42 ND neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBYU 18–39 ND neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBYU 21–35 ND neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBYU 25–32 ND neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesBYU 28–28 ND neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBYU 32–25 ND neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 35–21 ND neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBYU 39–18 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 7–42 ND neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBYU 11–39 ND neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 14–35 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBYU 18–32 ND neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBYU 21–28 ND neighborhood · ~3.2% of outcomesBYU 25–25 ND neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBYU 28–21 ND neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 32–18 ND neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBYU 35–14 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 4–39 ND neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 7–35 ND neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBYU 11–32 ND neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBYU 14–28 ND neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBYU 18–25 ND neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBYU 21–21 ND neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBYU 25–18 ND neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBYU 28–14 ND neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBYU 32–11 ND neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 0–35 ND neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 4–32 ND neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBYU 7–28 ND neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBYU 11–25 ND neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 14–21 ND neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBYU 18–18 ND neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 21–14 ND neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBYU 25–11 ND neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBYU 28–7 ND neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalND +35ND +21ND +7BYU +7BYU +21margin →