CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 7 · Sat Oct 17 · 7:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ND 73.8%26.2% BYU
Projected margin
ND by 9.8
Projected total
55
80% outcome range
ND 28 to BYU 9
Win probability
ND 73.8%

Current team profiles

Notre Dame
BYU

When Notre Dame has the ball

Passing

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
ND offense
#8
BYU defense
#16
EPA comparison
0.54
#8
-0.02
#16
Pass EPA

Rushing

BYU defense
Higher-ranked profile
ND offense
#19
BYU defense
#18
EPA comparison
0.24
#19
-0.10
#18
Rush EPA

Drive success

ND offense
Higher-ranked profile
ND offense
#3
BYU defense
#32
Success rates
53%
#3
35%
#32
Success rate
More metrics
0.36
#4
-0.08
#13
EPA / play
1.15
#107
1.18
#48
Explosiveness
10%
#9
20%
#17
Havoc

When BYU has the ball

Passing

ND defense
Higher-ranked profile
ND defense
#34
BYU offense
#70
EPA comparison
0.05
#34
0.23
#70
Pass EPA

Rushing

BYU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ND defense
#2
BYU offense
#1
EPA comparison
-0.23
#2
0.36
#1
Rush EPA

Drive success

BYU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ND defense
#9
BYU offense
#7
Success rates
33%
#9
52%
#7
Success rate
More metrics
-0.09
#11
0.30
#16
EPA / play
1.20
#65
1.18
#96
Explosiveness
23%
#3
8%
#2
Havoc

Current key players

Notre Dame
QBCJ Carr
1197 yds · 13 TD · 1 INT
92.45/729
LBKyngstonn Viliamu-Asa
13 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
91.2
Coverage
72.0
Pressures
8
Pass-rush snaps
19
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
92.14/1796
SLuke Talich
14 tkl · 1 PD · 2 INT
Player detail
Run defense
83.1
Coverage
88.3
Targets allowed
9
Rec allowed
8
Yards allowed
55
Passer rating allowed
52.5
Missed tackles
1
89.611/2969
WRDevin Fitzgerald
1 rec · 20 yds · 0 TD
87.020/2069
RBJonaz Walton
228 yds · 0 TD · 5.8 YPC
84.542/1044
SJoey O'Brien
9 tkl · 0 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
72.6
Coverage
80.3
Targets allowed
4
Rec allowed
3
Yards allowed
12
Passer rating allowed
77.1
Missed tackles
0
80.656/2969
Availability reports · 4
  • Quincy Porter · WRout · 2026-09-28

    Porter is sidelined due to knee injury, and he is expected to miss the remainder of the season.

  • Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa · LBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Viliamu-Asa is nursing with a thumb injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Cougars on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Leonard Moore · CBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Moore is dealing with a concussion injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against BYU on Saturday, Saturday 17th.

  • Blake Hebert · QBQues. · 2026-10-11

    Hebert is bothered by an undisclosed injury, and it remains to be seen if he will be active against Cougars on Saturday, October 17th.

BYU
QBTreyson Bourguet
15 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
84.448/729
RBLJ Martin
344 yds · 3 TD · 7.8 YPC
87.223/1044
TEWalker Lyons
8 rec · 89 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
66.6
Run blocking
78.4
Penalties
0
80.922/1017
WRLegend Glasker
14 rec · 279 yds · 2 TD
80.553/2069
CBCannon DeVries
14 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.9
Coverage
74.7
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
77
Passer rating allowed
102.4
Missed tackles
0
77.1120/2969
LBCade Uluave
20 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
65.5
Coverage
75.7
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
76.9142/1796
Availability reports · 7
  • LJ Martin · RBout · 2026-10-07

    Martin is managing with an ankle injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Sione Moa · RBout · 2026-09-20

    Moa is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Raider Damuni · Sout · 2026-09-07

    Damuni is out of commission due to a lower body injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Siale Esera · LBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Esera is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will play against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October

  • Andrew Gentry · OGQues. · 2026-10-10

    Gentry is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Brody Laga · KQues. · 2026-10-10

    Laga has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October 1

  • Jacob Nye · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Nye is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ND
BYU
vs
Offense
92.4
#5 of 138
QB
84.4
#42 of 138
83.8
#15 of 138
RB
87.2
#6 of 138
82.3
#5 of 138
WR
73.0
#47 of 138
59.4
#126 of 138
TE
80.9
#22 of 138
67.2
#77 of 138
OL
80.6
#3 of 138
Defense
83.8
#3 of 138
DL
76.1
#46 of 138
80.0
#22 of 138
LB
74.5
#64 of 138
80.1
#2 of 138
DB
72.6
#62 of 138
Common opponents