AVRCFB Model
All predictionsWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 7:30 PM
#26Away
Arizona
0-0 · AVR 66.2
24p
#19Home
BYU
0-0 · AVR 69.1
30p
ARIZ 35%65% BYU
Spread
BYU -5.8
Total
54
Moneyline
ARIZ+189BYU-189
Margin σ
14.6

Unit matchups

Pass game vs pass defense, run vs the front — units combined per phase
← ARIZ advantageevenBYU advantage →
ARIZ throw
BYU +8
ARIZ run
even
BYU throw
BYU WR #81ARIZ coverage #5
BYU +7
BYU run
ARIZ front #91ARIZ linebackers #5
BYU +20

Matchups to watch

The individual fights most likely to decide it, biggest names first
when BYU runs
LJ Martin
vs
Chase Kennedy
RB · BYU
MLB · ARIZ
84.9
84.0
dead even
when BYU throws
Reggie Frischknecht
vs
Jay'Vion Cole
X · BYU
CB1 · ARIZ
52.0
101.6
ARIZ +50
off the edge· hunting Bachmeier
Bruce Mitchell
vs
Julian Savaiinaea
LT · BYU
EDGE · ARIZ
88.8
60.6
BYU +28
when ARIZ runs
Kedrick Reescano
vs
Isaiah Glasker
RB · ARIZ
MLB · BYU
59.7
84.3
BYU +25
over the middle
Walker Lyons
vs
Johno Price
TE · BYU
FS · ARIZ
68.0
75.7
ARIZ +8
off the edge· hunting Fifita
Tristan Bounds
vs
Keanu Tanuvasa
LT · ARIZ
EDGE · BYU
76.2
67.4
ARIZ +9

Key players

Top-rated players, and who is out
Arizona
CBJay'Vion Cole
101.62/1427
LBChase Kennedy
84.026/878
LBEverett Roussaw Jr.
84.027/878
SGavin Hunter
83.362/1427
SDaylen Austin
75.9141/1427
TECole Rusk
69.212/287
BYU
QBBear Bachmeier
96.72/308
CBEvan Johnson
85.737/1427
SFaletau Satualaprobable
85.640/1427
RBLJ Martin
84.96/514
LBIsaiah Glasker
84.325/878
CBTherrian Alexander III
79.792/1427

Common opponents

5 shared opponents — margin each way, biggest disagreement first
Arizona
opponent
BYU
home+10.4
Iowa State#56
+13.7home
home+9.6
Arizona State#43
+12.8home
home+10.9
Cincinnati#51
+14.1home
home+5.9
TCU#32
+4.1away
home-2.8
Utah#16
-4.5away

Projected margin

80% between -12 and 23
-14-7-3+3+7+14PKBYU +5.895% interval: -18.1 to 29.780% interval: -11.6 to 23.1-12+23ARIZ wins 35%BYU wins 65%

Scorelines

Brighter is likelier
most likely ≈ BYU 32–25 ARIZBYU 28–49 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 32–46 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBYU 35–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBYU 39–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 42–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 46–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBYU 49–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 53–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBYU 56–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomesBYU 25–46 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 28–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBYU 32–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBYU 35–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.4% of outcomesBYU 39–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.6% of outcomesBYU 42–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBYU 46–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.5% of outcomesBYU 49–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.8% of outcomesBYU 53–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 21–42 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBYU 25–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 28–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.1% of outcomesBYU 32–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBYU 35–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBYU 39–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBYU 42–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.8% of outcomesBYU 46–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBYU 49–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 18–39 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBYU 21–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBYU 25–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBYU 28–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.1% of outcomesBYU 32–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.4% of outcomesBYU 35–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBYU 39–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 42–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.1% of outcomesBYU 46–11 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 14–35 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.6% of outcomesBYU 18–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.3% of outcomesBYU 21–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBYU 25–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.0% of outcomesBYU 28–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~3.3% of outcomesBYU 32–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.8% of outcomesBYU 35–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.9% of outcomesBYU 39–11 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.0% of outcomesBYU 42–7 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 11–32 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.5% of outcomesBYU 14–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.2% of outcomesBYU 18–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 21–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.7% of outcomesBYU 25–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.9% of outcomesBYU 28–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.5% of outcomesBYU 32–11 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.7% of outcomesBYU 35–7 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBYU 39–4 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 7–28 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.4% of outcomesBYU 11–25 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.9% of outcomesBYU 14–21 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.6% of outcomesBYU 18–18 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.2% of outcomesBYU 21–14 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.3% of outcomesBYU 25–11 ARIZ neighborhood · ~2.0% of outcomesBYU 28–7 ARIZ neighborhood · ~1.4% of outcomesBYU 32–4 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.7% of outcomesBYU 35–0 ARIZ neighborhood · ~0.3% of outcomes77706356494235totalARIZ +21ARIZ +7BYU +7BYU +21BYU +35margin →