CFB
Model
All gamesWeek 2 · Sat Sep 12 · 3:30 PM ET
Forecast win probability
ARIZ 35.4%64.6% BYU
Projected margin
BYU by 5.6
Projected total
51
80% outcome range
ARIZ 14 to BYU 25
Win probability
BYU 64.6%
FinalARIZ 17 · BYU 28model had +5.6, off by 5.4

Current team profiles

Arizona
BYU

When Arizona has the ball

Passing

BYU defense
Higher-ranked profile
ARIZ offense
#28
BYU defense
#16
EPA comparison
0.39
#28
-0.02
#16
Pass EPA

Rushing

BYU defense
Higher-ranked profile
ARIZ offense
#61
BYU defense
#18
EPA comparison
0.13
#61
-0.10
#18
Rush EPA

Drive success

ARIZ offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARIZ offense
#21
BYU defense
#32
Success rates
49%
#21
35%
#32
Success rate
More metrics
0.24
#32
-0.08
#13
EPA / play
1.22
#77
1.18
#48
Explosiveness
14%
#52
20%
#17
Havoc

When BYU has the ball

Passing

ARIZ defense
Higher-ranked profile
ARIZ defense
#17
BYU offense
#70
EPA comparison
-0.01
#17
0.23
#70
Pass EPA

Rushing

BYU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARIZ defense
#47
BYU offense
#1
EPA comparison
0.00
#47
0.36
#1
Rush EPA

Drive success

BYU offense
Higher-ranked profile
ARIZ defense
#27
BYU offense
#7
Success rates
35%
#27
52%
#7
Success rate
More metrics
-0.04
#28
0.30
#16
EPA / play
1.42
#131
1.18
#96
Explosiveness
16%
#63
8%
#2
Havoc

Current key players

Arizona
QBNoah Fifita
1398 yds · 13 TD · 3 INT
83.452/729
LBDash Fifita
5 tkl · 1.5 TFL · 1.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
56.6
Coverage
71.5
Pressures
6
Pass-rush snaps
22
Missed tackles
1
Forced fumbles
0
84.743/1796
CBJay'Vion Cole
17 tkl · 2 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
69.0
Coverage
76.6
Targets allowed
27
Rec allowed
14
Yards allowed
105
Passer rating allowed
73.8
Missed tackles
2
78.390/2969
WRGiovanni Richardson
15 rec · 170 yds · 0 TD
77.089/2069
WRTre Spivey
22 rec · 314 yds · 4 TD
76.1107/2069
RBIsmail Mahdi
72 yds · 0 TD · 6.0 YPC
74.7180/1044
Availability reports · 7
  • Tre Spivey · WRout · 2026-10-04

    Spivey has been out of commission due to ankle injury, and he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

  • Daylen Austin · Sout · 2026-09-25

    Austin has been shut down for the remainder of the season due to an undisclosed injury.

  • Giovanni Richardson · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Richardson is managing with an hamstring injury, and it is undetermined if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cole Rusk · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Rusk is laid up with an lower leg injury, and it is unknown if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Cornelius Warren III · RBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Warren III is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Max Harris · LBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Harris is battling with an undisclosed injury, and it is unknown if he will face Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

  • Scotty Brennan · WRQues. · 2026-10-10

    Brennan is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will play against Iowa State on Saturday, October 24th.

BYU
QBTreyson Bourguet
15 yds · 0 TD · 1 INT
84.448/729
RBLJ Martin
344 yds · 3 TD · 7.8 YPC
87.223/1044
TEWalker Lyons
8 rec · 89 yds · 0 TD
Player detail
Pass blocking
66.6
Run blocking
78.4
Penalties
0
80.922/1017
WRLegend Glasker
14 rec · 279 yds · 2 TD
80.553/2069
CBCannon DeVries
14 tkl · 1 PD · 0 INT
Player detail
Run defense
82.9
Coverage
74.7
Targets allowed
14
Rec allowed
9
Yards allowed
77
Passer rating allowed
102.4
Missed tackles
0
77.1120/2969
LBCade Uluave
20 tkl · 2.0 TFL · 0.0 sk
Player detail
Run defense
65.5
Coverage
75.7
Pressures
3
Pass-rush snaps
11
Missed tackles
7
Forced fumbles
0
76.9142/1796
Availability reports · 7
  • LJ Martin · RBout · 2026-10-07

    Martin is managing with an ankle injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Sione Moa · RBout · 2026-09-20

    Moa is dealing with an undisclosed injury, and there is no timetable for his return.

  • Raider Damuni · Sout · 2026-09-07

    Damuni is out of commission due to a lower body injury, and he will miss an extended period.

  • Siale Esera · LBQues. · 2026-10-10

    Esera is sidelined due to an undisclosed injury, and it is undetermined whether he will play against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October

  • Andrew Gentry · OGQues. · 2026-10-10

    Gentry is sidelined with an undisclosed injury, and it is unclear if he will suit up against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October 17th.

  • Brody Laga · KQues. · 2026-10-10

    Laga has been out of the lineup due to an undisclosed injury, and he will be not available against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October 1

  • Jacob Nye · TEQues. · 2026-10-10

    Nye is nursing with an undisclosed injury, and it has yet to be established if he will play against the Fighting Irish on Saturday, October

Position units

Position-unit comparison

ARIZ
BYU
vs
Offense
83.4
#46 of 138
QB
84.4
#42 of 138
74.2
#80 of 138
RB
87.2
#6 of 138
74.4
#39 of 138
WR
73.0
#47 of 138
63.4
#101 of 138
TE
80.9
#22 of 138
75.2
#17 of 138
OL
80.6
#3 of 138
Defense
72.0
#86 of 138
DL
76.1
#46 of 138
74.8
#61 of 138
LB
74.5
#64 of 138
70.9
#84 of 138
DB
72.6
#62 of 138
Common opponents

Common opponents

Arizona
opponent
BYU
H+27.0
CIN#59
+10.9H
H+7.1
ISU#56
+14.0H
H-5.0
UTAH#9
-9.0A
H+11.7
ASU#65
+13.0H
H+6.5
TCU#36
+7.0A